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Conflict in the Middle East

Hamas ‘quietly drops’ thousands of deaths from casualty figures

86 replies

Twiglets1 · 03/04/2025 12:42

Article in the Telegraph (unfortunately behind a paywall).

New research shows that Hamas has quietly dropped thousands of deaths from its Gaza war casualty figures.
Salo Aizenberg, from the US-based non-profit organisation Honest Reporting, said that Hamas’s March 2025 casualty update had removed thousands of people it previously listed as having been killed last year.
“Hamas’s new March 2025 fatality list quietly drops 3,400 fully “identified” deaths listed in its August and October 2024 reports – including 1,080 children. These “deaths” never happened. The numbers were falsified – again,” Mr Aizenberg wrote.

The casualty lists are released as PDFs by the Hamas-run Gaza ministry of health, which has been cited by international media as a source for fatality figures in the enclave since the start of the war.
A report by the Henry Jackson Society in December said that the number of civilians killed in the Gaza conflict had probably been inflated by Hamas in order to portray Israel as deliberately targeting innocent people.

Andrew Fox, the author of the report, said the latest deletions are likely to have been an attempt by Hamas to retain credibility.
“We knew there were rafts of errors in their reporting,” Mr Fox said. “There’s a reasonable explanation in that their computer systems went down in November 2023, so it’s been challenging for them to report accurately, but the lists are so unreliable that the world’s media shouldn’t be quoting them as reliable.”
He added: “The UN also just takes Hamas’s figures and publishes them with a note stating the figures are unconfirmed.”
The Hamas lists contain information such as names and ID numbers, and can be filled in by anyone with a link to the Google form for the document.
Hamas will “have gone through the list, trying to make it as convincing as possible. They’ve been accepting names onto that list with no evidence whatsoever”, explained Mr Fox. “So what I’m guessing they’re trying to do is thin out the names they cannot substantiate at all.”

Mr Fox, a former British paratrooper who has worked with Mr Aizenberg on previous research, said the teams use the publicly available Hamas data and cross-check it name by name.
“Salo’s research would be looking for names that were on previous lists but have now disappeared,” Mr Fox explained. “Hamas releases lists as PDFs, so it’s harder to do comparisons but we transfer names to an Excel sheet to do a mass comparison this way.”

About 72% of fatalities aged 13-55 are men, which is the rough age range of Hamas combatants, Mr Fox said. “We know that Hamas uses child soldiers, and these statistics show clearly that Israel is targeting fighting-aged men.”
In previous conflicts, Hamas figures have often been corroborated by external organisations, Mr Fox said.
The Henry Jackson Society’s December report said: “The ministry of health, operating under Hamas, has systematically inflated the death toll by failing to distinguish between civilian and combatant deaths, over-reporting fatalities among women and children and even including individuals who died before the conflict began.
“This has led to a narrative where the Israel Defense Forces are portrayed as disproportionately targeting civilians, while the actual numbers suggest a significant proportion of the dead are combatants.”

www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/04/01/hamas-drops-thousands-of-deaths-from-casualty-figurures/

OP posts:
Odras · 04/04/2025 08:59

The answer is to let independent researchers and journalists into Gaza.

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:00

grimupnorthnot · 04/04/2025 08:54

Nope Isreal and the IDF are the problem - they created Hamas by constantly breaking ceasfires and all international rules the isreali government and the british/us governments should all the in the hague

It's going to get very crowded, can we invite Russia, China, Iran, the Sudanese government, (there are a few others), oh and the defacto government of Gaza...what were they called again?

Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 09:07

HermioneWeasley · 04/04/2025 08:46

I for one am shocked that a terrorist organisation whose stated aim is to kill every Jew they see and murdered babies with their bare hands turn out to have been inflating numbers to make Israel look bad. Shocked I tell ya.

No this certainly wouldn’t be at all surprising. But interestingly independent attempts to triangulate data and produce estimates come up with a similar or higher number e.g the recent paper by researchers at LSHTM published in the Lancet. This suggested over 60,000.

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 09:09

Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 09:07

No this certainly wouldn’t be at all surprising. But interestingly independent attempts to triangulate data and produce estimates come up with a similar or higher number e.g the recent paper by researchers at LSHTM published in the Lancet. This suggested over 60,000.

Oh so you do want to discuss numbers?

But only higher ones … got it.

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Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 09:16

@Twiglets1 No - I want to discuss the difficulty in getting a good estimate - which the LSHTM paper discusses in depth. What I don’t want is the assumption that the figure we have, while flawed and clearly from a biased source, are automatically an underestimate. And at least the LSHTM team are demographers / experts with specific expertise and an academic reputation to uphold, unlike Fox who is an ex-squaddie with an axe to grind.

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 09:18

Sleepinggreyhounds · 04/04/2025 09:16

@Twiglets1 No - I want to discuss the difficulty in getting a good estimate - which the LSHTM paper discusses in depth. What I don’t want is the assumption that the figure we have, while flawed and clearly from a biased source, are automatically an underestimate. And at least the LSHTM team are demographers / experts with specific expertise and an academic reputation to uphold, unlike Fox who is an ex-squaddie with an axe to grind.

Fox didn’t come up with the new numbers or the old ones - Hamas did.

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Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 09:22

And for someone who started off saying it’s really tasteless to quibble over numbers, it seems strange that you’re now talking about triangulating data and providing estimates to come up with a different set of numbers.

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Hengaoxingrenshini · 04/04/2025 09:24

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:00

It's going to get very crowded, can we invite Russia, China, Iran, the Sudanese government, (there are a few others), oh and the defacto government of Gaza...what were they called again?

No we can't, because they aren't fighting a war in Gaza!

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:27

Hengaoxingrenshini · 04/04/2025 09:24

No we can't, because they aren't fighting a war in Gaza!

So the various bods at The Hague only deal with Israel and it's allies, that's special.

Hengaoxingrenshini · 04/04/2025 09:29

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:27

So the various bods at The Hague only deal with Israel and it's allies, that's special.

Sorry quantum butterfly, I meant this in support of you!

As in people don't make a fuss about those wars because they aren't between Israel and Gaza!

I'd love to see them in the Hague as they all are guilty of serious war crimes, but I don't think it will happen.

quantumbutterfly · 04/04/2025 09:34

Hengaoxingrenshini · 04/04/2025 09:29

Sorry quantum butterfly, I meant this in support of you!

As in people don't make a fuss about those wars because they aren't between Israel and Gaza!

I'd love to see them in the Hague as they all are guilty of serious war crimes, but I don't think it will happen.

Xie xie

User37482 · 04/04/2025 09:42

I think we should be a bit relieved that the numbers of civilian casualties are lower than Hamas initially put out. That doesn’t absolve Israel for it’s part in any action but I don’t understand why any pro Palestinian would be upset about that.

I really struggle to understand how people cannot simultaneously have immense sympathy for both Israeli and Palestinian deaths. The use of child soldiers is also abhorrent and should be condemned by everyone.

Mylegishangingoff · 04/04/2025 09:58

TomeTome · 04/04/2025 08:05

Why are 13 to 18 year olds described as “men”, they are children surely? Changing the definition of a child to massage figures quite so blatantly is uncalled for.

The same people who do this describe Israeli soldiers as 'girls' and 'kids'. It's astonishing to see the two system that they have set up in their heads,

Twiglets1 · 04/04/2025 10:48

User37482 · 04/04/2025 09:42

I think we should be a bit relieved that the numbers of civilian casualties are lower than Hamas initially put out. That doesn’t absolve Israel for it’s part in any action but I don’t understand why any pro Palestinian would be upset about that.

I really struggle to understand how people cannot simultaneously have immense sympathy for both Israeli and Palestinian deaths. The use of child soldiers is also abhorrent and should be condemned by everyone.

Yes I agree with all that.

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Polka83 · 05/04/2025 20:37

PurpleChrayn · 03/04/2025 18:11

The fact that so many were willing to believe these figures says a lot about the amount of anti-Israeli sentiment and antisemitism that’s rife in the world

What a lot of people don’t seem to realise when they peddle Hamas lies is the effect it’s had on Jews outside of Israel. My visibly Jewish husband and our toddler were heckled off a bus last year, and security has tightened at my daughter’s school. The atmosphere in our city is extremely tense; I haven’t been into the centre since October 7. Many people in my community are planning to move to Israel to escape it, including myself and my family.

I am sorry this has happened to you and your family. I hope your family find peace in Israel.

The report doesn’t seem to alter the number of people who died but how the deaths were categorised. For example 5000 deaths may be have been “natural.”

However - you may have seen the Lancet article that noted that the Hamas figures may be a gross UNDER estimation of the number of people who have died in the conflict due to the IDF actions. Looking at other conflicts - the deaths may be upto 7.9% of the population. For example due to disease, starvation and not least those still buried in the rubble.

https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/HJS-Questionable-Counting-–-Hamas-Report-web-v2.pdf

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

HJS 'Questionable Counting – Hamas' Report.indd

https://henryjacksonsociety.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/12/HJS-Questionable-Counting-%E2%80%93-Hamas-Report-web-v2.pdf

hellohellooo · 05/04/2025 20:40

What a ridiculous reason to start a thread

Free Palestine

I am disgusted at the world for staying silent

🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸

Twiglets1 · 05/04/2025 20:47

hellohellooo · 05/04/2025 20:40

What a ridiculous reason to start a thread

Free Palestine

I am disgusted at the world for staying silent

🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸🇵🇸

This is not the thread for you. Try one of the other ones, there are loads you will prefer.

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Polka83 · 05/04/2025 21:11

I agree

That too many people have died in Gaza is indisputable, that children have been maimed and orphaned, and Gazans continues to suffer is absolutely clear. If anything - the Hamas figures for those who have died are thought to be a significant underestimation according to the Lancet article I posted.

Attempts to minimise suffering are deplorable.

Polka83 · 05/04/2025 21:24

@hellohellooo
was meant to tag you into my post above.

Twiglets1 · 05/04/2025 21:27

Polka83 · 05/04/2025 21:11

I agree

That too many people have died in Gaza is indisputable, that children have been maimed and orphaned, and Gazans continues to suffer is absolutely clear. If anything - the Hamas figures for those who have died are thought to be a significant underestimation according to the Lancet article I posted.

Attempts to minimise suffering are deplorable.

No one’s attempting to minimise suffering.

But getting a true understanding of the numbers is important.

You obviously agree since you’ve also posted about the numbers but using a different source and different interpretation.

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Polka83 · 05/04/2025 21:32

@Twiglets1

Why do you think that Andrew Fox wrote the report if not as pro-Israeli propaganda? Do you think he would have published it if his conclusion was that Hamas under represented the deaths? Why does he not reference indirect deaths if his intentions were truly to be impartial?

The reason for the publication was pro-Israeli propaganda to minimise Gazan suffering.

Polka83 · 05/04/2025 21:34

To take into account indirect deaths is an acceptable form of understanding the human cost of war- hence the article I posted was accepted in a highly reputable impartial medical journal.

Twiglets1 · 05/04/2025 21:42

Polka83 · 05/04/2025 21:32

@Twiglets1

Why do you think that Andrew Fox wrote the report if not as pro-Israeli propaganda? Do you think he would have published it if his conclusion was that Hamas under represented the deaths? Why does he not reference indirect deaths if his intentions were truly to be impartial?

The reason for the publication was pro-Israeli propaganda to minimise Gazan suffering.

The numbers were reduced by Hamas and only reported by Fox.

It doesn’t minimise suffering if there are fewer numbers.

It’s weird that it seems to upset people that Hamas reduced their estimate of the number of Palestinian deaths. Aren’t fewer deaths a good thing?

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Polka83 · 05/04/2025 21:50

@Twiglets1

Sorry I misunderstood the reason for your original post.

You are right in congratulating the Gazan MOH in trying to understand those who died. Unfortunately- as the Lancet article shows - the number of Gazans who have died have not been accurately represented and will far out number the current figures.

There will be a lot more work to be done to understand fully the death and suffering the IDF have caused in Gaza. We need to remember that this will not only include the physical suffering but also the severe mental trauma.

Twiglets1 · 06/04/2025 06:39

Polka83 · 05/04/2025 21:50

@Twiglets1

Sorry I misunderstood the reason for your original post.

You are right in congratulating the Gazan MOH in trying to understand those who died. Unfortunately- as the Lancet article shows - the number of Gazans who have died have not been accurately represented and will far out number the current figures.

There will be a lot more work to be done to understand fully the death and suffering the IDF have caused in Gaza. We need to remember that this will not only include the physical suffering but also the severe mental trauma.

Yes huge amounts of physical suffering & mental trauma on both sides without any doubt. I have huge sympathy for all innocent civilians (Israeli & Palestinian) affected by the initial massacre and by the subsequent retaliation.

No sympathy for Hamas or Hamas supporters however.

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