The aftermath

[Auvergne63]

All wars end. I use the term "war" very loosely as I don't view this as a war.
What will happen to the Gazans? How can live in such devastation? How can they deal with so much trauma? Will they ever recover?
Gaza faces a massive reconstruction challenge. Here are key facts and figures | Reuters
The former Israeli prime minister Olmert thinks that Netanyahu has no plan for after the war. He has been a strident critic of his actions.
Ex-Israeli PM makes devastating condemnation of Netanyahu’s war in Gazan | The Independent
Here is a link to his peace proposal in collaboration with Nasser al-Kidwa
Former Israeli PM and former Palestinian foreign minister lay out joint plan to end Israel-Hamas war | CBC News

But Hezbollah did not join in. Up until about a month ago, their contribution was relatively harmless. There were exchanges of artillery and rockets across Israel's northern border ( mostly directed at the other sides military positions) but in the grand scheme of things, they were relatively unimportant. Few people were killed in the 11 months since Oct 7 and the main result was that there were lots of brush fires and 60,000 Israelis had to evacuate.

Realistically, imagine this was Mexico lobbing rockets across the US border, meaning that several million people (if you look at percentage of population) had to evacuate and hundreds (again extrapolating to population size) were killed. Do you imagine that the US would dismiss that as "relatively unimportant", or do you think they'd retaliate?

Realistically, imagine this was Mexico lobbing rockets across the US border, meaning that several million people (if you look at percentage of population) had to evacuate and hundreds (again extrapolating to population size) were killed. Do you imagine that the US would dismiss that as "relatively unimportant", or do you think they'd retaliate? @Hunglikeapolevaulter

Ridiculous analogy, Mexico and the states have not been engaged in a brutal and bloody set of wars over the past 60 years. It's as irrelevant and superficial as the "What if Norway ...."
Whilst engaging in this discussion, try to include context.

What's ridiculous is trivialising Hezbollah's year-long assault as "relatively unimportant", and then bitching when Israel retaliates.

Thank you OP and mouthpipette for your balanced and considered responses. Much appreciated.

I agree largely with @mouthpipette's reading, though I wouldn't say "relatively harmless". The level of fire from Hezbollah has been immense - something like 13,000 rockets and UAVs during the course of the war. There have been few deaths on the northern border because Israel has great air defences, there is an alarm warning system and most homes have a protected room, and the towns right by the border have been evacuated - though for example in Majdal Shams, Kiryat Shmona and the Golani base we have seen what happens when the systems fail. The lack of deaths is not for want to Hezbollah trying, and they are trying pretty hard at the moment to hit civilian infrastructure too (how do I know? I live 50+ miles from the border and was woken up this morning again by sirens from a rocket attack targeting energy infrastructure in my area).

The damage around the northern border is colossal, and so is the societal impact of having 60,000 people evacuated from their homes and businesses. Even a year later there's a kid in my kid's kindergarten whose address is a local hotel being used to shelter displaced people, and everyone I know from the northern villages just south of the evacuation line is completely frayed from a year of rocket fire.

There has also been a strategic impact: one of Hezbollah's aims was to make sure a big proportion of the IDF would be tied up on the northern border dealing with the rocket attacks.

For Israel the big issue driving the present conflict with Hezbollah is the need to have the northern residents return to their homes. For this to happen, they need to be confident that Hezbollah is not sitting right on the border. A lot of posters here have ridiculed Israeli fears of a 7/10-style attack from the north, but the 2006 war with Hezbollah began from a cross-border raid and this time at least one Hezbollah tunnel crossing the Israeli border has been found.

I hope that there is a diplomatic solution rather than a military one. The international community needs to take implementation of UN resolution 1701 which requires Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani river seriously. It's all very well that 10,000 UNIFIL soldiers are deployed in the area, but they have been utterly ineffective in preventing Iran's proxy army from establishing very significant military infrastructure in the area. Southern Lebanon needs to be governed by Lebanon, not by Hezbollah.

BTW, the Mexico analogy is terrible but a slightly better analogy is perhaps the Cuban missile crisis where destructive weapons were placed far beyond the borders of the relevant countries. The ultimate issue behind this conflict is the balance of power between countries aligned to the US/Israel/moderate Arab states and countries/groups aligned with Russia/Iran. Often comments on these forums note Western military aid to Israel without noting that the same is the case on the other side: Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis are funded and armed by Iran/Russia.

Except Russia/Iranian aid as a proprtion is far greater than US aid to Israel.

The aftermath will include the global effects of trauma experienced by everyone with loved ones affected. How can people who have seen their entire families, entire communities massacred be expected to be ok on The Day After? How can people who have seen what some organisations and governments want to do to them be expected to trust those same organisations and governments on The Day After? Who's going to rebuild the ruins of Gaza, of Lebanon? Who's going to free people from occupation and prevent further terrorism? Who's going to provide reparations and justice for the innocent people who have suffered beyond what most people could imagine?

The aftermath will include repercussions for innocent people in other societies who now, more than was perhaps necessary 18 months ago, need to think about safety on a whole new level. If we send our children to a mainstream school, will they be even more at risk of harm and will the adults tasked with keeping them safe actually contribute to that harm? If we let our children go to play in the local park, will they be attacked with weapons? If we take them out for a walk, how many graffitied death threats will be on the route? If we speak our own family's languages in public, will we be targeted? These were things people needed to consider, but it's on a whole new level now.

And how do you know that? I'm sure I read US military aid to Israel in the last year was something like 17 billion! And that's just the US. I highly doubt Iran is sending the same amount to Hezbollah and Hamas.

What an ignorant statement, all Arabs are not the same, they don't all share the same language, religion or culture, should all Catholics be banished from the UK to Italy just because they are Catholics, some people just love segregation it seems

Thats why I used the word 'proportion' (i.e %) not 'amount'. It costs vast amounts more to defend rather than attack & the Iron Dome is expensive while H& H rockets are relatively cheap. Its hard know exactly as Israel and those who either sell them military equipment, or the US who also gives military aid, are transparent about publishing figures while of course Iran, Hezbollah & Hamas are not. But most commentators I've read suggest that Iran supplies most of their military spend in one way or another. US annual aid is around $3billion and there was a one-off package of $14billion. Israeli spending on the war over the last year was about $60billion, around half of which was civil rather than military - evacuating 60k people from the border, housing them, repairing damage from incessant hezbollah attacks etc etc.

They spend a lot trying to keep their people safe. A year of attacks from Hamas and Hezbollah.

I don't blame Israelis for leaving if they can, I would as well. Likewise if I was Palestinan and could go live somewhere else.

I really dislike the way the term Arabs is used on these threads. No one would refer to a French citizen as an European. When someone ask me where I am from, I don't reply Europe.
It is, in effect, erasing their own and varied cultures and religions.I think some posters equal Arabs with Muslims. You can guess where I am going with this.

evacuating 60k people from the border, housing them, repairing damage

The cost of this is going to be tiny, not even an order of magnitude, a whole exponential at least less than that wrought on Gaza.

As of June, the last stats I could find, Israel had dropped 70,000,000 kg of explosive on Gaza. Seventy million kilogrammes. I'll say it again seventy million kilogrammes.

You missed out the 'etc, etc'. I'm not sure why this is addressed to me anyway, as my post was not about the weight of bombs or about any sort of comparison with costs of damage to gaza. It was about the proportion of US funding to Israel compared to Iranian funding to Hamas/Hezbollah. You are welcome to take up the figures with the Israeli Treasury.

Exactly, sadly it's all part of the dehumanisation of people they don't like, at best it's ignorance at worst it's indoctrination

Please forgive me ignorance but may I ask a question - there are some very knowledgeable people on this forum:

Is the West Bank area 'safe'?

If so, how come - and is this likely to last?

No, 100s of Palestinians are killed by the IDF every year in the West Bank. Palestinians are hauled off to 'administrative detention' where they are kept with no charge for as a long as Israel like, this includes children who are routinely victims of violence and sexual abuse whilst in Israels care. Palestinians live under apartheid in the West Bank and as such do not have basic human rights afforded to them. Palestinians get their homes and villages burned to the ground, their homes and land stolen from beneath them, if they object they are killed or arrested. And this just scratches the surface. There is nothing safe about being a Palestinian in the West Bank.

The US would slaughter them and take much the same approach as the Israelis. But in the case of Mexico, the Mexicans would not have so many avengers on their side as Hezbollah may have, ready to keep springing up against Israel in the future just as Hezbollah sprouted from the seeds of previous Israeli action in Lebanon.

Indiscriminate, hot-headed, disproportionate attacks in order to defeat terrorism do not always make it the best line of defence imo either ethically ( killing and displacing many civilians too) or politically ( not working long term/causing more trouble).

The West Bank wasn't safe before October 7th and definitely isn't safe now. Even before the current crisis, it was under occupation - people use the term The Occupied Territories to refer to the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza, as well as the occupied Golan Heights.

The Palestinians living in the West Bank have lived and continue to live under occupation, with restrictions on movement, food, water, healthcare, etc. Their communities can be destroyed with no notice given, people evicted at gunpoint by Israeli 'settlers', and they are unable to access legal protections or justice, as the legal system and police/military defend the 'settlers' rather than the people living under occupation. Palestinians can be arrested and placed under administrative detention, meaning that they are imprisoned for an indefinite time, without any actual charges - they may be denied legal representation or even the ability to tell their loved ones where they are. In prison, there are high rates of inhumane treatment including torture and sexual violence. Men, women and children experience these things.

It is a place where a child can be shot and killed because another child near them may have thrown a stone. It is a place where a child can be shot and killed because they were sitting in their (civilian) father's car at a checkpoint on their way home from school.

When will it be safe? I don't know... The end of occupation, reparations and justice for the people who have suffered under occupation, and the protection of the integrity of Palestinian territory will be key, but that looks very far off indeed.

You are shooting the messenger probably because they did not make clear that that was a quote within an article by the historian Max Hastings in The Times Oct 12 (my bolding)

It deserves emphasis that only a few members of Netanyahu's coalition today speak openly of pursuing the expulsion of Palestinians from the West Bank, though many urge that Egypt should accept the displaced people of Gaza.
It has for years been a commonplace of Jerusalem political conversation to say: "Arabs have many countries, we have only one."

This is a screen shot of the article. Another poster gave an actual link with a share token, but I cannot remember on which thread. It is worth reading but bleak.

Thank you Scirocco and Ghostcicada.

It's all unimaginably dreadful.

I'm so sorry for everyone caught up in this - and especially for children.

Apologies if it came over that I was aiming my comment at the poster, I wasn't, but as the the article says it has been for years a" commonplace of Jerusalem political conversation" it is obviously something that has been said by many people, whoever said it is in my opinion holding a very ignorant view