To understand the escalation in Lebanon, we must confront what Israelis are thinking

[Gunnersforthecup]

Rather good and well-informed article in the Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/sep/28/escalation-lebanon-israelis-benjamin-netanyahu-hamas-hezbollah

"It is almost certainly true that the prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has political reasons for prolonging the conflict. But while a majority of Israelis would probably like a different prime minister, many don’t want to stop the war until they think that both Hamas and more particularly Hezbollah – which has tied its actions directly to Gaza – have been neutralised as serious threats.

And that is because behind both groups they see an Iran that is dedicated to their destruction...

This isn’t simply about the US and its western allies. This time the Gulf states – and most of all Saudi Arabia – are going to be key actors. The prize of normalisation with Israel has not disappeared. But the price has gone up. It will certainly include the effective containment of Iran and its allies – and an answer to real, not simply declarative, Palestinian statehood. And this time we need to make it stick. Otherwise the pain we are seeing now will not simply not go away. It will get a lot worse."

Ah, so one unprovoked attack on 8th October, not “attacking that nation's civilians completely unprovoked for nearly 12 months” then.

Glad you have revised that.

No one.

Someone brought up the UK’s response to IRA terrorism as a comparator.

The number of civilians murdered on 7 October in Israel, is the equivalent to 10,000 civilians being murdered in the U.K. in a single attack, on a single day.

I think things would look very different had the IRA carried out an atrocity on that scale.

They have continued to attack for 12 months. That would drive any government to step up its action to protect its citizens as any reasonable person would expect.

Not sure you can blame the Palestinians for the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin.

Do you think it wouldn’t @ToBeDetermined ?

I would not expect them to bomb civilian areas to smithereens killing countless people. I would not expect them to bomb hospitals and kill paramedics. But in the warped parallel mumsnet universe, when Israel does this sort of shit, it's always defended. Nobody would ever defend any other country pulling stunts like this!

So just keep allowing bombings then?

What? How do you figure that
“The number of civilians murdered on 7 October in Israel, is the equivalent to 10,000 civilians being murdered in the U.K. in a single attack, on a single day.”

When the final death toll was:
“…695 Israeli civilians, including 36 children, as well as 373 security forces and 71 foreigners, giving a total of 1,139.”
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231215-israel-social-security-data-reveals-true-picture-of-oct-7-deaths

Are civilian lives worth less the further north you go? Or if they happen to live on an island? I don’t understand…

This counts number of attacks not numbers of rockets used in each attack. Hezbollah fires in the hundred. It’s not straightforward. So if x fired one rocket thats one event if y fired 1000 rockets that is one event. They are recorded as the same number of events despite being materially very different.

Hezbollah attacked first. This is documented. It’s very difficult to see how Israel firing back makes them responsible for Hezbollah choosing to fire at them first.

I think they already had stepped it up (by doing 5 attacks to every Hezbollah attack) and it wasn’t working, so stepping things up even more is the surest way to keep failing.

As it is we are on to a re-run of the 2006 failed invasion of Lebanon. Many more lives will be lost for no gain.

Really I think they were holding them off a bit, possibly helping them erode their weapons store and I’m afraid they are not failing here. From a military perspective they have done immense damage to Hezbollah.

I hope this is over quickly but I imagine by the end of this Israel will have a 7km buffer zone within southern Lebanon as they wish. There are a lot more that dislike hezbollah in Lebanon than like it.

Is it correct that Hezbollah have previously stated they would stop firing rockets if there was a ceasefire in Gaza? I think I heard this from someone a few weeks ago, but not sure if that's correct.

I’m not saying Israel is responsible, I am saying that it is not a case of 11 months of unprovoked attacks.

The 1st attack on Oct 8th was unprovoked, every attack since then has been mutually provoked. All the sources have reported it as such- tit for tat, mutual exchange of fire, etc.

Yes, and every attack by the IDF also consists of hundreds of bombs.

I agree the impacts are materially very different- if you read the BBC report as of July, the link I posted, you will see that Lebanon has experienced more civilian deaths and more damage.

What the actual fuck, "2006 failed invasion of Lebanon"?!

Maybe actually read about what started that war before you continue to spread even more false "information".

Absolutely absurd the lengths you'll go to. I mean, fucking hell.

Yea that is what they have said from the start. Ofc with their leader now assassinated that offer may have expired with him.

Yes but they started firing weeks before a war in Gaza even began so I don’t think they are in it for humanitarian reasons. They did it to try to get a kick in whilst Israel was under attack.

I did. I read it in Britiannica
https://www.britannica.com/event/2006-Lebanon-War

Are civilian lives worth less the further north you go? Or if they happen to live on an island? I don’t understand…

No.

It’s calculated on population.

10,000 would be the equivalent per the U.K. population.

That is not an insignificant number. If it were to happen today, the U.K. would be thrown into absolute chaos. I dread to even think what the aftermath of something like that would look like.

So what I’m getting at is that the constant comparisons to how the U.K. dealt with the IRA are completely irrelevant because the U.K. has NEVER dealt with an attack on the scale of 7 October. We couldn’t even conceive of it.

Thanks @ToBeDetermined and @User37482 I have not fully understood the situation with Lebanon and just trying to grasp it at moment.

It goes like this

I punch you in the face

then you punch me in the face and say “stop punching me in the face right now!”

I say “no” then punch you in the face

you punch me in the face and say “pack it in”

I say “no” and punch you in the face and then make it clear that I am not going to stop punching you in the face

Do you feel that I haven’t been the cause of the provocation? Do you feel that perhaps everytime you defended yourself that you were actually provoking me, even after I said Imma just carry on punching you?

So you acknowledge that it was started by terrorists kidnapping Israelis from Israeli soil, but you decide to frame it as a failed attempt at an invasion by Israel? Truly remarkable stuff.

Yea normally a country doesn’t invade another country over a terrorist gang firing rockets and kidnapping two soldiers. Israel did in fact do a ground invasion of Lebanon in 2006 and failed. This isn’t dissimilar, we have terrorists firing rockets into Israel, and Israel appears to be on the path to another ground invasion of Lebanon. They got north of the Litani River, the main river inside Lebanon.

Oh yeah? Pray tell, what does a country 'normally' do when terrorists from a different country murder and kidnap their people? Do they just say "oh shucks, that's unfortunate. Oh well, never mind"?

An invasion would imply Israel were trying to gain land, which they weren't. They were trying to get their soldiers back and get rid of the genocidal, murderous terrorists responsible.

This is an incredible insight into your mind.

No one is going to accept bombings for a year and say ok