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Conflict in the Middle East
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26
Scirocco · 06/08/2024 18:40

Would you rather die in tunnels in the dark or under the sky of your homeland?

A mass evacuation into the tunnel network would be suicide. Poor air quality, limited evacuation routes, immediately becoming 'legitimate' targets (because almost everyone in the tunnel system is regarded as either a combatant or an acceptable casualty/human shield), at risk of being crushed or drowned if the tunnels are flooded.

If all you can choose is the likely means of your death, something relatively quick like a missile strike or a sniper's bullet is probably preferable to asphyxiation, drowning or being crushed underground.

Dulra · 06/08/2024 18:51

Beljin · 06/08/2024 17:20

I'm not sure what's wrong with Palwatch or why my post has been deleted. Regardless, even on twitter there are many examples of (among others):

*children saying on TV (children's programs) that they desire to be martyrs

*parents (fathers and mothers) expressing joy that their child merited to be a martyr (read: murdering terrorist killed in the act)

*teenagers expressing a desire to become martyrs, then going out and acting upon it (by murdering innocent civilians)

*the handing out of sweets and sweet coffee at funerals of dead terrorists

There is a systematic desire and plan of action to maximise civilian casualties, the more gruesome the better. To deny this shows utter detachment from truth and reality.

Is there any point to your long list of accusations?

Limesodaagain · 07/08/2024 10:24

Scirocco · 06/08/2024 18:40

Would you rather die in tunnels in the dark or under the sky of your homeland?

A mass evacuation into the tunnel network would be suicide. Poor air quality, limited evacuation routes, immediately becoming 'legitimate' targets (because almost everyone in the tunnel system is regarded as either a combatant or an acceptable casualty/human shield), at risk of being crushed or drowned if the tunnels are flooded.

If all you can choose is the likely means of your death, something relatively quick like a missile strike or a sniper's bullet is probably preferable to asphyxiation, drowning or being crushed underground.

I can understand why Palestinians don’t enter the tunnel network ( I think the fact that it is Hamas controlled is another factor )

But the lack of any shelters for Palestinian civilians makes it clear that Hamas (and their Iranian paymasters) do not care about protecting Palestinians. So they bear a huge responsibility for Palestinian civilian deaths.
Lots of people on these threads think all the blame for Palestinian suffering lies with Israel but Hamas/ Iran have demonstrated they are willing to sacrifice innocent Palestinian lives.
Lots of pro Palestinians don’t want to discuss Iranian involvement. The anti Hamas Iranian man on the pro Palestinian March was abused and had to be protected by the police. What does that say about the attitudes of some of the protesters?
Whenever there is an attempt to say this is a complicated conflict it is followed by accusations of being uncaring about the suffering of innocent Palestinians - as if Hamas and Iran aren’t also responsible for the suffering.

PeasfullPerson · 07/08/2024 11:31

@Limesodaagain I think that if the Israeli response to October 7th had been more restrained, and our previous government hadn’t supported it, then people would have the band width to consider wider influences. I’m not sure that there are lots of people on here who are naive to them. But the priority for people right now as I see it, is the direct assault on Gaza, which the Israeli government are responsible for, and must stop, regardless of the events and multiple factors that lead to this situation. Neither Israel or Palestine are being well served by their leaders.

DownNative · 07/08/2024 11:38

Limesodaagain · 07/08/2024 10:24

I can understand why Palestinians don’t enter the tunnel network ( I think the fact that it is Hamas controlled is another factor )

But the lack of any shelters for Palestinian civilians makes it clear that Hamas (and their Iranian paymasters) do not care about protecting Palestinians. So they bear a huge responsibility for Palestinian civilian deaths.
Lots of people on these threads think all the blame for Palestinian suffering lies with Israel but Hamas/ Iran have demonstrated they are willing to sacrifice innocent Palestinian lives.
Lots of pro Palestinians don’t want to discuss Iranian involvement. The anti Hamas Iranian man on the pro Palestinian March was abused and had to be protected by the police. What does that say about the attitudes of some of the protesters?
Whenever there is an attempt to say this is a complicated conflict it is followed by accusations of being uncaring about the suffering of innocent Palestinians - as if Hamas and Iran aren’t also responsible for the suffering.

Hamas simply don't want Gazans in their tunnels underground. The sad reality is it serves their own particular propaganda aims as keeping Gazans above ground serves Hamas' war aims, i.e., makes Israel look much worse than would otherwise be the case. Its intended to pressure Israel in a political sense which is intended to squeeze them in a military sense.

All whilst Iran's axis continues to attack to further the axis war aims. Multiple pressure points has and is being exerted on Israel to Israelis detriment.

If this strategy is ever successful, other like minded groups will adopt the same or similar which will make ANY Sovereign Power look worse.

There is no good option available for any Sovereign Power in such a situation, especially against an enemy who promises to do the same again & again as long as they are able to do so.

It's a strategy intended to radically close down all good options until a Sovereign Power is left having to choose between the Devil and the Deep Blue Sea. The Illusion of Choice fallacy comes into play too.

Some might say Sovereign Powers should be able to find a better alternative, but this ignores their real limitations in various spheres of influence AND blatantly ignores the fact an enemy like Hamas also has agency.

I've been reading a military document recently that's NOT available for public consumption. It states that a Sovereign Power's military plans don't survive contact with the enemy. The 1991 Gulf War was one exception to that rule which was actually unexpected.

The document in question is about planning & tactics employed, so don't ask how I got it as I won't answer that. But it shows the Sovereign Power's military is very much a learning organisation.

And I'm learning a lot from it.

Otherwise on this issue, @Limesodaagain, I would suggest you download NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence 2019 report entitled "Hamas' Use Of Human Shields In Gaza". It discusses the issue and suggests some steps that could be taken. But, as I said, military plans DON'T usually survive contact with the enemy. Militaries of various Sovereign Powers are actively studying and learning from the current war in Gaza. I expect we'll have new strategies in the future, but don't expect to be able to read what they are at any point over the next 10 to 20 years. Only Sovereign States will know what those will be.

Quite rightly so.

As for your other point, you make excellent, salient points. I said previously I don't go in for Atrocity Bingo, but here's another thing I don't go in for - Oppression Olympics. These aren't intended by anyone to seriously discuss the overall issues as they're intended to set up a binary argument, e.g., if you're not with us & don't do what we demand of you, then you're against us.

Put it this way, although I read a lot of things here I don't feel the need to post my thoughts on every or most issues. I know exactly what I personally think of various issues and that's enough for me. I don't indulge performative virtue signalling online.

And it's none of my business what anyone else thinks of me, especially when they base their perceptions on what I haven't said. As I've said before, perception is not the same thing as reality.

As it is, I have a long list of documents to read so I'll obviously not respond to every single post. That would be a waste of time. If you want a recommendation or two of reading material, you can always send me a PM.👍

But you are correct in arguing there is a wider context and range of actors in this war. It was never about Hamas v Israel as the true source of conflict is Iran who are also strongly distrusted by other Sovereign Powers in the region. It is Iranian IRGC regime who has aggressive proxies dotted around the Middle East being the aggressor towards a tiny State in comparison to their neighbours.

Iran's regime doesn't care much for uninvolved civilians. Saudi & Jordan know this which is why they'll shoot down anything Iran fires.

SerenityNowInsanityLater · 07/08/2024 16:45

I've been reading a military document recently that's NOT available for public consumption...Put it this way, although I read a lot of things here I don't feel the need to post my thoughts on every or most issues. I know exactly what I personally think of various issues and that's enough for me... As it is, I have a long list of documents to read so I'll obviously not respond to every single post. That would be a waste of time.

Please, dear thread gods. Make it stop.

DownNative · 07/08/2024 17:48

So, we now have a situation where Hamas has appointed Sinwar as overall leader. Controls the terrorist and political arms of the Hamas Movement after the Shura Council appointed him.

Nobody can argue now that the two arms are separate from each other. 👍

Hamas leader killed
Hamas leader killed
PeasfullPerson · 07/08/2024 21:59

@DownNative perhaps you would like to think more carefully about how you have worded this, given the context of the violence that has been inflicted, it comes
across as distasteful to me, to speak about whether two arms are separate or not.

Congratulations to those who wish to prolong the ‘war’ and care little for human suffering. I hope they are happy about this appointment.

BelleHathor · 08/08/2024 08:51

Logically the appointment makes sense for Hamas, as a sign of strength.

Bibi ordered the assassination of an easy target who travelled openly (Haniyeh) in the hope of sowing discord and fear within Hamas ranks. It's done the opposite, what might have been a tactical win for Bibi is increasingly looking like a major mistake. Sinwar is a hardliner. This move also reflects the move of the region to a total war footing, no more negotiations. The Iranian government are more angry over the Haniyeh assassination, than the Syrian assassination as he was a "guest in their house".
With the Knesset voting to never allow a 2 state solution conflict is increasingly inevitable.

Scirocco · 08/08/2024 09:31

A thumbs-up emoji seems in rather poor taste.

PeasfullPerson · 08/08/2024 15:21

BelleHathor · 08/08/2024 08:51

Logically the appointment makes sense for Hamas, as a sign of strength.

Bibi ordered the assassination of an easy target who travelled openly (Haniyeh) in the hope of sowing discord and fear within Hamas ranks. It's done the opposite, what might have been a tactical win for Bibi is increasingly looking like a major mistake. Sinwar is a hardliner. This move also reflects the move of the region to a total war footing, no more negotiations. The Iranian government are more angry over the Haniyeh assassination, than the Syrian assassination as he was a "guest in their house".
With the Knesset voting to never allow a 2 state solution conflict is increasingly inevitable.

I’m not sure, I think it makes Hamas appear less palatable, and that Netanyahu will be using this to his advantage (even though he has far more blood on his hands). I think it is a bad move for negotiations and the prospect of peace.

BelleHathor · 08/08/2024 17:23

PeasfullPerson · 08/08/2024 15:21

I’m not sure, I think it makes Hamas appear less palatable, and that Netanyahu will be using this to his advantage (even though he has far more blood on his hands). I think it is a bad move for negotiations and the prospect of peace.

I'm afraid that peace is out of the window 😟for a very long time.

Iran and Lebanon are not speaking to anyone sent from the West.

Less palatable to whom though and what power do they have to speak anymore? The West who've turned their eyes away and provided cover and weapons whilst the Israeli Government broke countless International Laws?

From listening to diplomats, Generals and people actually in the region they are communicating that the whole calculation has changed. This is a geopolitical fight now. Do you know that after Israel bombed Iran's embassy in Syria in April and Iranians through intermediaries offered not to respond if there was a ceasefire in Gaza and the Americans refused this?

Nasrallah in his speech a couple of days ago stated that Gaza must not fall, otherwise next it will be the West Bank, then Lebanon and Syria aka the Greater Israel. The feeling appears to be that America and by extension are agreement incapable and continually break promises so if Iran's response triggers a response from Israel that leads to War, Iran has said so be it.

Shoigu, ex Russian Defence minister was in Iran 2 days ago which is significant as Putin earlier this year said: "We will arm your enemies just like you arm the enemies of Russia.” in response to the arming of Ukraine.

The assassination of Haniyeh 2 weeks after the Palestinian factions agreed to work together is also disrespectful to China who spent years trying to broker the deal. So all the pieces are lining up and appointing Sinwar was a deliberate move most probably made with the agreement with the Big Players:

THREAD: The unanimous selection of Yehya Sinwar as Hamas' new political leader should be viewed within the context of Iran and Hizbullah's imminent retaliation. While this move represents Hamas' response to Israel's assassination of the more pragmatic Haniyeh, it more significantly marks a political escalation that mirrors the expected military escalation from its allies. 1/

Given that Sinwar represents the most radical wing within Hamas, and Israel's obsession with eliminating him, the movement is not just signalling a harder line in the cease-fire talks vis-a-vis Israel, the US and Arab mediators. This decision also broadcasts an uncompromising and resolute message for the "day after" political landscape. 2/

This in turn implies that Hamas has secured commitments from its partners guaranteeing ongoing and steadfast military backing. This support is all the more meaningful considering the very real possibility of a worst case scenario unfolding—where Israel exploits Iran and Hizbullah's retaliatory actions as a justification for initiating all out war against the entire Axis.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1821265163808305635.html?utm_campaign=topunroll

Thread by @amalsaad_lb on Thread Reader App

@amalsaad_lb: THREAD: The unanimous selection of Yehya Sinwar as Hamas' new political leader should be viewed within the context of Iran and Hizbullah's imminent retaliation. While this move represents Hamas' respon...…

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1821265163808305635.html

PeasfullPerson · 08/08/2024 18:30

@BelleHathor thanks for that insight re military action, such stupid men 😣

The people of Israel and Palestine deserve better than this. Neither have leaders that are strong enough to deliver them peace.

Maybe Netanyahu and Sinwar can become buddies in hell.

PeasfullPerson · 08/08/2024 19:50

This slant on things provides a bit of hope.

A small excerpt below.

‘The reformist Iranian press reported claims that a decision to refrain from a revenge attack would increase Iran’s prestige in the region, intensify Israel’s isolation and even mean Iran would be credited for bringing peace.’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/08/iran-may-rethink-reprisal-for-israels-killing-of-hamass-ismail-haniyeh

Iran may rethink reprisals against Israel over killing of Hamas’s leader

Other Islamic countries are not openly backing military response by Tehran and more targeted action appears likely

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/08/iran-may-rethink-reprisal-for-israels-killing-of-hamass-ismail-haniyeh

DownNative · 08/08/2024 20:38

Now that the United States has moved various military assets to multiple strategic locations across the Middle East, they've issued Iran with a warning.

"Wall Street Journal: The U.S. has issued a stark warning to Iran, stating that a wide-scale attack on Israel will result in the total devastation to Tehran."

Deterrence is an important part in military decision making and strategy. It may well be that Iran will still conduct an attack on Israel, but not a major attack given the array of joint forces manoeuvred into place against Iran. One Israel would be able to absorb so avoiding a major joint force counter-attack on Tehran.

Whilst deterrence as a show of strength is important, it doesn't always deter an enemy, e.g., Operation Desert Sabre (military buildup of assets) didn't deter Saddam Hussein in 1990-91 so Desert Sword (offensive operation) went operational.

Attached is a slightly out of date US Navy assets map. It doesn't show additional F-22 Raptor fighter jets flying from Alaska to Qatar today or location of US submarines armed with cruise missiles. Or UK assets. Or additional US assets stationed in Italy.

Hamas leader killed
Hamas leader killed
BelleHathor · 08/08/2024 21:25

PeasfullPerson · 08/08/2024 19:50

This slant on things provides a bit of hope.

A small excerpt below.

‘The reformist Iranian press reported claims that a decision to refrain from a revenge attack would increase Iran’s prestige in the region, intensify Israel’s isolation and even mean Iran would be credited for bringing peace.’

https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/08/iran-may-rethink-reprisal-for-israels-killing-of-hamass-ismail-haniyeh

There is currently a lot of speculation as Iran has gone quiet. The problem is that retaliation has been ordered directly by Khamenei. The actual people that know about the plan are limited to a few in Iran, Lebanon, Yemen, Syria and Iraq. So anyone saying they know what's happening especially from Western sources is speculating. Iran is engaged in a psychological war with Israel right now forcing Israelis to stay alert and near shelters 24/7 in case of an attack.

From speeches in the last couple of days Iran has mobilised the IRGC offensively and the Iranian Army to prepare defensively. All visible via satellite by the Americans.
In fact a General from Belarus responsible for Air Defence was in Tehran today.
As for standing in the region, countries like Jordan, Saudi etc are seen by many as vassals of America with very little respect due to their inaction.

On America moving assets to the region and issuing a warning, so what? Hit Iran and all the American bases in the region are targeted. Hit Iran then in addition to the Red Sea being closed Bab al-Mandab will be closed to ships (hello higher prices). The Yemenis can and will target the oil fields, Oil crisis 2024! with many economies already on the brink of recession.

You see we are in a very torturous situation. America should have sufficiently reigned Netanyahu in long before now. Lavrov warned them weeks ago not to take the fact that the Axis had not hit Israel hard for granted/ as a sign of weakness. The slow way they fought was to keep the focus on Palestine, however now their sovereignty has been breached and with the world seeing clearly who the aggressor was.

It's an absolute crap, horrible situation.

PeasfullPerson · 08/08/2024 21:56

There is definitely a lot of speculation.

This is what the Wall Street Journal actually says

‘The U.S. message to Tehran, officials said, wasn’t intended as a threat to carry out U.S. military action against targets in Iran but was intended as a warning about the risks of provoking a robust military response from Israel.’

I can’t see anywhere in that article where it says what @DownNative quoted.

Please clarify this @DownNative

ScrollingLeaves · 08/08/2024 23:00

From
Haaretz

ASSASSINATION: U.S. officials have conveyed to Iran via various intermediaries that, if the blast that killed Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was indeed caused by a covert Israeli operation and did not kill any Iranian citizens, then the Islamic Republic should reevaluate its plan to launch a military attack on Israel, Politico reported, adding that the officials said "Tehran seems to have recalibrated and the U.S. does not expect an attack on Israel imminently."

"Iran is reconsidering its steps, even as the circumstances surrounding the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last week are gradually emerging. The killing, according to Washington Post analyst David Ignatius, used an explosive device planted in Haniyeh's room at a guest house operated by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards – not by means of a missile fired from long distance. Somehow, according to the unwritten rules of the game in the Middle East, this is probably seen as less of a provocation in the eyes of the regime" – Amos Harel

BelleHathor · 08/08/2024 23:28

Thanks Scrolling the word if is doing a lot of heavy lifting in that article.

Funnily enough Egypt, Qatar and the USA have just released a joint statement calling for a final round of negotiations starting on August 15th:

August 08, 2024
Joint Statement from the Leaders of the United States, Egypt, and Qatar

It is time to bring immediate relief both to the long-suffering people of Gaza as well as the long-suffering hostages and their families. The time has come to conclude the ceasefire and hostages and detainees release deal.
The three of us and our teams have worked tirelessly over many months to forge a framework agreement that is now on the table with only the details of implementation left to conclude. This agreement is based on the principles as outlined by President Biden on May 31, 2024, and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2735.
There is no further time to waste nor excuses from any party for further delay. It is time to release the hostages, begin the ceasefire, and implement this agreement.
As mediators, if necessary, we are prepared to present a final bridging proposal that resolves the remaining implementation issues in a manner that meets the expectations of all parties.
We have called on both sides to resume urgent discussion on Thursday, August 15 in Doha or Cairo to close all remaining gaps and commence implementation of the deal without further delay.
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/08/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-states-egypt-and-qatar/

Also this:
More than a dozen Western and Arab leaders have contacted #Iran to intervene on #Israel's behalf, asking it not to retaliate or to target only military bases. The list is long. If
Netanyahu
is so afraid of retaliation, why does he attack sovereign states? He thinks he has impunity and can do whatever he wants? Not with Iran and #Lebanon
https://x.com/ejmalrai/status/1821583298188943571

Joint Statement from the Leaders of the United States, Egypt, and Qatar | The White House

It is time to bring immediate relief both to the long-suffering people of Gaza as well as the long-suffering hostages and their families.  The time

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/08/joint-statement-from-the-leaders-of-the-united-states-egypt-and-qatar

PeasfullPerson · 09/08/2024 09:02

I think this is a chance for Iran to show restraint and improve relations with the West. There is no need to stoop to the levels of your enemy.

I agree with what Pakistan’s foreign minister said (also in the Guardian article).

‘Pakistan’s foreign minister, Ishaq Dar, in his remarks called for cool heads and perseverance with a diplomatic path – saying that the assassination must be avenged but that “we must not fulfil Benjamin Netanyahu’s design for a wider war”. He said the Israeli prime minister was seeking to set a trap.’

I have been wondering, why is it that Iran could not/would not protect Gaza the way the US protects Israel?

Beljin · 09/08/2024 17:25

There's a lot of theatre of the absurd going on here. Iran has been plaguing the Western world at large and Israel in particular with its proxies for decades. Most Islamic terror happening in the world nowadays is Iranian funded. And they're not even coy about it.

When Iran funds and arms Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis and more in their terror attacks against Israel, that's acceptable. Nobody bats an eyelid. Yet when Israel kills arch-murderer, the billionaire Haniyeh on Iranian soil, Israel is somehow the aggressor?

It's time the West took Iran to task for its aggressions and war crimes via its proxies.

Scirocco · 09/08/2024 17:40

Beljin · 09/08/2024 17:25

There's a lot of theatre of the absurd going on here. Iran has been plaguing the Western world at large and Israel in particular with its proxies for decades. Most Islamic terror happening in the world nowadays is Iranian funded. And they're not even coy about it.

When Iran funds and arms Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, Houthis and more in their terror attacks against Israel, that's acceptable. Nobody bats an eyelid. Yet when Israel kills arch-murderer, the billionaire Haniyeh on Iranian soil, Israel is somehow the aggressor?

It's time the West took Iran to task for its aggressions and war crimes via its proxies.

Islamist.

BeretInParis · 09/08/2024 19:16

I agree with you @Beljin.

ScrollingLeaves · 09/08/2024 23:35

*Yet when Israel kills arch-murderer, the billionaire Haniyeh on Iranian soil, Israel is somehow the aggressor?^

We were angry when Russia assassinated someone by poison on our soil, and tried the same on another. It does feel like aggression plus ingression.

Haniyeh was involved in the ceasefire/hostage release deal. Some people think that is why he was killed.

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