Hamas leader killed

[Billyballyboo]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jul/31/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed-iran-israel-gaza-war

Any thoughts on this?

I wonder what it is that Trump gets from being president? Is he set on a policy or more easily swayed by what’s happening around him? Does he act from a secure base of beliefs?

I really have no idea at all, like a lot of people I would guess he runs on ego and the need to be liked.

I could broadly understand why he won in 2016 by promising to be the anti establishment candidate which appealed to a lot of the disaffected working class (that Michael Moore used to make documentaries about). But when in office he kept a lot and appointed as advisers these establishment sorts. The stories say that he listens to whoever currently has his ear, funnily enough he said that Netanyahu was the biggest obstacle to the 2 state solution and got on well with Abbas, but the deal brokered by his Son in law was the equivalent to capitulation and the relationship with Abbas broke down after the Embassy move.
If he wins Trump will have to decide if America losing it's International standing and potentially having to send more US soldiers to the region is a price worth paying.

It depends whether you define pro-Israeli as believing Israel has a right to exist or whether you think that it should also have the Paslestinisn territories and all that that would entail. Israeli born Adelson funds settlements in the West Bank. She spends most of her time in Israel while doing her business in the US where she uses her money to try to influence US government policy in relation to Israel- she is very hawkish. Her late husband was quoted as saying “The Palestinians are an invented people,” and “the purpose of the existence of Palestinians is to destroy Israel”. The pair were basically two hearts with one beat on these matters.

"You've lots of quasi legal/academic arguments to show those of us lesser mortals who just happen to have seen starvation and genocide in real life, the ignorant souls from the world of medicine and science. Your threads don’t conceal your hawkish attitude and alignment with Israel and the British establishment. I think your arguments are good because of your debating skills and depth of knowledge, but this doesn’t give you a monopoly on the truth."

I suggest putting your passive aggressive attitude to one side and try to be as objective as possible. That'd be a good start.

My threads?

IIRC, I only have a couple of threads - one in CITME from months ago regarding Hezbollah in Lebanon from an academic perspective and one on learning a foreign language (obv. not in CITME).

Also, let's dispense with the Strawman Argument Fallacy, shall we? I never claimed to have a monopoly on the truth. 🤦‍♂️

Fortunately, I'm not actually attempting to conceal anything here. It's very clear I'm aligned with the Western sphere of influence and dead set against Iran's axis with Hezbollah, Houthis, Hamas as well as militias in Iraq and Syria.

I should hope that isn't a problem.

"You posted a picture of Gerry Adams, he of the armolite and ballot box."

I did, aye, mocking Adams. And? Pretty clear PSF/PIRA have & maintain links with Hamas et al.

By the way, the armalite & the ballot box idea came from Danny Morrison. Not Adams who is more Provo politically minded as opposed to Provo militarily minded.

"You said on another thread that the GFA and resulting peace was the result of the British military’s effective defeat of the PIRA as you call them. This was clearly not the case- Sinn Féin made the move further into the political arena and are currently most successful party in NI."

I did and that is entirely correct. A terrorist organisation doesn’t give up terrorism unless the cost is too high. PIRA was infiltrated from the top down, security forces were able to intercept most operations, PIRAs most dangerous cell was wiped out in 1987 and many of their members were in prison. Additionally, the other drawback of their terrorist cell structure from 1977 onwards was their numbers were small and average age was significantly higher. By the dawn of the 1990s, PIRAs average age during this period was 40 or so compared with 20 in their initial insurgency phase 1970-74. A lower average age brings indiscipline in the ranks as PSF/PIRA noted in documents seized in 1977, but a higher average age increases the likelihood of death plus Father Time is not on their side. If PIRA was strong and capable of escalating things, it wouldn't have agreed to the conditions laid down by the Sovereign Power in 1998, much less decommissioned weapons. Indeed, PSF/PIRA did not achieve any of their long held key core demands in the Belfast Agreement. But the UK Government got theirs in it.

Is this also the point where I put down the words of significant PIRA members once again or something?

Oh, and Provisional Sinn Féin has barely gained on their last electoral showing. A less than 2% increase! 🤦‍♂️

Nationalism isn't the majority at Stormont either. As for PSF as FM, that's what political Unionist division gets you, but isn't an actual win for PSF in real terms.

"I’m not a “sneaking begrudger” or a Sinn Féin supporter, but I think that the killing of Haniyeh could be a disaster for the hostages."

A possibility, yes. But one that makes a lot of assumptions about what Hamas is prepared to do with those remaining hostages. Indeed, Hamas refuses to indicate whether they're alive or dead, including the ratio. An important omission. You can't take a group like this at face value. We already know they murdered multiple hostages months ago and hid them including in Rafah.

"Politics is about dialogue. Freeing hostages needs dialogue. Taking out a terrorist who is political leader with clout when you’re trying to do a hostage deal is a mistake, even if it garners support political support for Netanyahu.Negotiations with someone who isn’t a terrorist aren’t going to get any living hostages back."

Up to a point, I can agree. But the mistake you're making there is assuming it was Haniyeh who held the significant clout. It wasn't.

Yahya Sinwar is the one with the real clout, especially as he's the one with the hostages within Gaza. Haniyeh was always limited given he had very few cards to play being leader of the political arm of Hamas. This setup was not the same as that of PSF/PIRA where the Adams/McGuinness faction manoeuvred into gaining control of the Provisional Republican Movement both politically and militarily from circa 1981 onwards, i.e., Northern Command booted Southern Command over the border and took charge of all Provo affairs.

The kind of combined leadership PSF/PIRA had then suits a small terrorist group, but also has its drawbacks. But a consolidated political and military leadership does not suit what Hamas really is - a terror army. Indeed, the size of Hamas means a parallel military and political leadership structure is more secure than a single consolidated one. Whoever controls the military side has the upper hand until such time as that group's terrorist military activity makes a strategic defeat very apparent. Then, and only then, does the political leadership gain the upper hand.

So, Sinwar in Gaza is the real focus if you want to achieve your remaining war aim having achieved the others. It may well be that Sinwar will be prepared to do a hostage deal once the psychological pressure is too much for him. He'll have heard about the various eliminations and may want to save his own skin for certain terms.

Either that or he's more than happy to murder them in a last act of psychological terror on Israel and her people. The last I always think is more likely - Sinwar is not really pragmatic, imo.

"Taking out these older guys does not weaken Hamas-it just creates a space for younger less skilled ones to move into their places. Mossad are very successful- they regularly take out key figures in Hamas and the organisation is set up to deal with this problem. Hamas will be set back for a few critical weeks ( from the point of view of the hostages and those trying to avert a further humanitarian disaster ) but after that business as usual, probably with a younger less skilled and more extreme replacement."

Under "normal" conditions of past conflict with Hamas, you are correct. Assassinations are a short term tactical option, but not a long term strategic one. Problem for Hamas is numbers plus supporting terrorist infrastructure are more limited now than before plus the psychological toll of tunnel warfare is greater than before. We've got indications there is some degree of disunity within Hamas which is how the IDF had enough intel to pull off the hostage rescue a while back. Some indication of local Gazan population dissent towards Hamas too. Under these conditions, assassinations have a stronger negative effect on a terrorist group.

Replacements whilst usually younger are not only less skilled, but more impulsive and less psychologically resilient. A terrorist organisation is only as dangerous as its skill set. A small highly skilled one can be much more dangerous than a larger less skilled one.

It's also not axiomatic that replacements are more extreme. That's an assumption you've made yourself.

Hamas is not set up to deal with the problem it currently faces and this will become clearer over the next few months. Indeed, the Philadelphi Corridor was very important to Hamas, but they've lost that. Now, we can see the size of the tunnels going into Egypt. Iran's axis will try to save what remains of Hamas from the next few days on by hoping to tie the IDF against the proverbial ropes long enough for Hamas to recover in some manner. With the military defensive support that's coming for Israel, its not likely to help Hamas in the long run.

I notice you haven’t commented on any post relating to the atrocities in Gaza, the compelling statements by American doctors, or the settler violence in the West Bank, aided by the IDF. Except that is to vehemently defend Israel.

Spot on! As have I, and I'm sure others too.

I try to only comment on threads if I have something to say that hasn’t already been said. I also try to avoid reading any graphic descriptions of atrocities.
Not commenting on a thread doesn’t necessarily mean you don’t abhor the wrong doing described . It might just mean you haven’t anything to add to the conversation.

I accept that, but you presumably wouldn’t then go on to lecture others that do read about the atrocities, and defend Israel having not read about them.

Absolutely none of that comes close to being any kind of argument against a single thing I've said.

This part: "As for your assessment on the IRA and how peace came about, that is written from the perspective of a self-proclaimed Unionist."

Is based on your own reliance on a logical fallacy related to bias. Indeed, whilst I've made it clear I'm unionist in terms of politics, you consistently clip off the other part of it which is that I'm Catholic. Indeed, I don't even quote a single Unionist on this point. Funnily enough, I quote PIRA members themselves. 🤦‍♂️

Whatever point you thought you had simply falls.

As for the rest, @Limesodaagain makes a salient point. Don't make assumptions based on what someone hasn't said or done as that leads to logical fallacies.

Deal only with what someone has said.

But I see you like to play Atrocity Bingo.

I haven’t read the full thread so my apologies if I have got this wrong but I think it should be possible to defend Israel’s right to defend itself when faced with existential threats without implying support for atrocities that go against the accepted rules of warfare.

Yes, and it means you don't play Atrocity Bingo amongst other reasons. 👍

@DownNative You do come across as judge and jury with your posts, always correcting everyone that isn't Pro Israel because you feel their opinion is wrong because of some kind of fallacy or you feel they have a strawman argument. Everyone's opinion counts and is just as valid as yours.

@DownNative I think that the atrocities in Gaza are a push force towards extremism. Also, the status quo in the Palestinian Territories prior to this conflict was untenable from the Palestinian point of view. So the options were a political solution or the path of violence. Anything favouring one , makes the other less likely. So if Netanyahu has closed the door on the two state solution, then the path of violence is how things will go, but probably more violent, more enmeshed with drug dealers, and involving organised crime, splinter groups, and various dark state and non state actors and other interest groups, all against a complex geopolitical background where these actors are proxies for Iran and the various super powers. If a political way forward can’t progress, then violence follows.

As to the IRA lack of recruitment, internment was 1971-5, Bloody Sunday was 1972, by the late 80s diplomatic back channels were opening. There has always been grass roots support for a peace process on both sides of the border. So I while advancing age and mellowing contributed to the fall off in IRA membership, I think it would simplistic to attribute this as the main cause.

Absolutely none of that comes close to being any kind of argument against a single thing I've said.

Yes it does. Your bias shows with literally everything you post. Again, you are not some arbiter of truth, far from it.

This part: "As for your assessment on the IRA and how peace came about, that is written from the perspective of a self-proclaimed Unionist."

Is based on your own reliance on a logical fallacy related to bias. Indeed, whilst I've made it clear I'm unionist in terms of politics, you consistently clip off the other part of it which is that I'm Catholic. Indeed, I don't even quote a single Unionist on this point. Funnily enough, I quote PIRA members themselves.

Logical fallacy? Lecturing again. So your bias is OK, but mine is “flawed”. Since when does being a Catholic exempt you from Unionist bias? You are a self-proclaimed Unionist. Lord, I even remember you complaining about the universally acclaimed documentary “Once Upon a Time in Northern Ireland” (which by the way I would encourage anyone interested in peace, and how that might come about, to watch – its available on iPlayer). Apparently it was a bit too fair to the nationalists for your liking.

Whatever point you thought you had simply falls.

Again, that is entirely your biased perspective.

As for the rest, @Limesodaagain makes a salient point. Don't make assumptions based on what someone hasn't said or done as that leads to logical fallacies.

Deal only with what someone has said.

I’ve already replied to @Limesodaagain - If you haven't seen the atrocities, don't lecture those that have.

But I see you like to play Atrocity Bingo.

Atrocity Bingo – ARE YOU FOR REAL?

Have you read literally NOTHING?

I thought this thread was about a hamas leader being killed 🙄

I know this is directed towards @DownNative but I do want to explain my point.
your criticism is about people who “lecture others that do read about the atrocities, and defend Israel having not read about them”
I don’t know what @DownNative thinks but I am horrified by the treatment of Palestinian prisoners and by the horrors experienced by Palestinian civilians. But that doesn’t change the fact that Israel is SURROUNDED by terrorist threat ( much of it supported by Iran , Russia etc) and I understand why they feel afraid.
It’s very sad (and wrong and evil ) that innocent Palestinians are being used as proxies in this war . But there is a big picture here and blaming the Israelis is ignoring the wider reality

Here is a thread by a former deputy head of Israel's National Security Council Eran Etzion. It's a sobering assessment and displays the gap between the Government (who are gambling on a "war" securing their power) and the Military/Security apparatus who knowing the actual state of the battlefield are extremely aware of the danger that escalation will bring.
https://x.com/eranetzion/status/1818937778157044180
Translated from Hebrew:

300 days to the war - summary of the assessment of the situation -

1. Israel, even after the failures of the ship and Shukur, is at a severe, multidimensional strategic disadvantage. political-strategic, security, legal, moral, economic.
2. The gap between reality and the perception of reality, among significant sections of the Israeli public, and among most members of the government and the coalition - is a huge and extremely dangerous gap.
3. Netanyahu, who understands well the dimensions of the failure and is not detached from reality, decided to increase the amount of the bet. He ignites an all-out regional war, forces Iran to be drawn into it directly, hopes to force the US to be drawn into it as well, and has no ability to shape the results of this war.
4. The American administration is at a point of historical weakness, the result of an accumulation of 'processes' and unfortunate circumstances.
5. Europe is focused on the war in Ukraine, the Russian threat and the threat of the Trump administration 2.0. 6. Russia and China recognize an opportunity to continue to erode the world order and American hegemony, both through the war in Ukraine, and through the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and a regional war in the Middle East at the worst possible time for the United States.
6. Iran is in a very good position. It has become a vital link in the Russian-Chinese-CPK axis, and it has proven that the "Ring of Fire" model through proxies works perfectly, and Israel has no answer to it. The countermeasures in Tehran do indeed embarrass it severely, but it will respond to it, and it is not a game changer at the strategic level.
7. The American attempt to form an anti-Iranian coalition, which on the eve of 7/10 seemed to be ripening (the American-Saudi defense agreement, normalization with Israel, "NATO Middle East"); was actually thwarted by Sinauer's decisive strategic move, In my opinion, in significant Iranian involvement, in the 7/10 attack, in the entry of Hezbollah and the Houthis into the campaign, and in the conduct of a successful war of attrition against Israel.
8. It is true that this coalition worked well on "the night of the missiles" and proved its potential, and it is hoped that in the coming days and weeks it will also help Israel deal with the expected Iranian reaction, which will probably be multi-arena. But Netanyahu's refusal to accept the Biden outline already many months ago thwarted the big move, prevented Israel from a historic strategic achievement, and dug us a huge hole that will be very difficult to get out of. 10. This morning we are on the verge of a severe and uncontrollable deterioration, under extremely difficult opening conditions, when the government is run by a clearly incompetent person, who knowingly endangers national security, destroys the present and destroys the future of all of us, solely for the sake of his survival in power and evading the law Justice for his multiple crimes and misdeeds, before and after 7/10. The government consists of a collection of impersonalists, with a diverse composition of messiahs, dodgers, corrupters, cowards and opportunists. The decision-making mechanisms are paralyzed and dysfunctional. The gatekeepers are deterred and weakened.

11. The top of the IDF and the security system are at a loss. They understand the situation and the seriousness of the situation very well, but are afraid to take a position in public, and Netanyahu recognizes their weakness and exploits it. 12. Let's say this in the sharpest way - in a regional war in the current context and timing, Israel will not win. under no circumstances. Israel is much more vulnerable than any of its enemies, and certainly from the "strangle ring" coalition as a collective. The absorption capacity of the Houthis, of Hezbollah and Lebanon, and certainly of Iran, is much greater than that of Israel. A country small in its territory and population, modern, Western, immersed up to its neck in a 300-day war in which it is not winning, should not initiate a more extensive war with stronger enemies than Hamas. A country that all its friends demand from it to stop the war and go to an agreement for the release of hostages and a cease-fire, should not reject these proposals with contempt, and expect overwhelming support in the form of arms shipments, a veto in the UN, and the stopping of the war under conditions favorable to Israel. This will not happen. A country whose economy is already in the worst crisis since 1973, should not raise the stakes and burden the economy with another unbearably heavy burden. A country whose reserve forces are worn out, and whose regular army is damaged, should not send them into a more difficult war without being able to end it on good terms. And of course, a country where only a very specific part of its population bears the burden, and this part is mostly not represented in the government; A government that increases the burden on that part, and continues to allow the evasion and inaction of the parts it represents; A government that has no public legitimacy, that 70% and more demand its resignation in disgrace, that has demonstrated incompetence and abuse of office since its inception, such a government cannot expand the war. 13. All the jingoists (war mongers) in the government, the media, the networks and the public are required to answer one question - what is the realistic end state of the regional war that you encourage? What does the agreement that will end the war with Lebanon look like? What does the agreement that will end the war with Iran look like? After all, you don't even have a convincing answer for the "day after" in Gaza, which is the simplest, smallest and weakest of all these arenas... The truth is that none of them has any answer or even the edge of an answer. Israel cannot "overcome" Iran alone. It outnumbers us by a lot. This is even greater than the US, not theoretically but practically, see the Iraq entry. Israel cannot even "overcome" Hezbollah, nor reliably "remove the threat" for many years. Worse, the US in its current weakness, and in the state of its relations With Russia and China, it will be very difficult for Israel to close this war. It will need not only Iranian consent - which of course will come with a heavy price tag - but also Russian and Chinese consent, and these two powers have no interest in shortening the campaign. on the contrary. They have an interest in prolonging it, exposing the short-handedness of the US, which "is not even capable of restraining Israel", benefiting (Iran and Russia, not China) from the rise in oil prices and its expected effect on the elections in the US, and in general tilting the balance even more The global power in their direction. This means that Israel could degenerate into very long months of war of an intensity it has never experienced, and I will spare more detailed descriptions here. 14. All studios, commentators and media were supposed to deal with all of this, and only this. But they are conducted - not all and not all the time, but most of them - in a kind of parallel universe. In this universe, Israel only has to decide, to be "offensive", and then in a very short time (weeks? months?) Hezbollah will kneel before us, Iran will kiss Netanyahu's ring, and the Hutim will ask to convert. Even experienced people, who were supposed to be sober, if not before then after the last 300 days, mutter "we have no choice, we must remove the threat, even if the price will be heavy". Well, the price will be prohibitive, and the threat will not be removed. 15. My friend Aron Miller, the former State Department official, who together and separately plowed the fields of peace processes in the Middle East for decades, wrote a sad, sober and difficult tweet yesterday - Whether we end up in a regional war, the future seems pretty clear: Seemingly never-ending, grinding wars of attrition between Israel and Iran and its proxies with few if any off-ramps and prospects for enduring de-escalation. This black future, what Naftali Bennett called "Middle Eastern Sparta", what Netanyahu called "life on the sword", what the Samotrichs and their rabbis call "our most beautiful days", what the evangelicals call "the war of Gog and Magog" after which all Jews will see the light And they will become Christians, this future is what Netanyahu and the members of the government of destruction are cooking for us. 16. So whoever believes that this is a "war without choice", whoever thinks that this whole analysis is wrong, is welcome to propose an alternative analysis and argue. Those who understand the seriousness of the situation, are required not to put up with it but to fight against its perpetrators. Netanyahu and the government do not have a mandate to expand the war. point. They have the right to think that this is the necessary move, and that they are the ones suitable to lead it. But they must go to the people and receive their faith in this way of theirs and in them as its leader. According to all the polls, the majority of the people are not with them, but demand the signing of a deal, the end of the war and going to the elections. 17. A competent government would take advantage of the setbacks to turn to the US, Egypt, Qatar and the entire international community and say - we are interested in signing the deal. Now. Help us bring Hamas to the table, help us restore Gaza and build an effective and pragmatic Palestinian government, help us To build a new regional order, based on the Biden plan, we are all in. 18. PS - There is much more to be said about the internal arena, about the rampant messianic-political coup, about the wave of the descent from the land of our good sons, our daughters, their sons and daughters, about the nothingness of the "opposition", but Enough said and Enough sad.

@Limesodaagain

I don’t know what @DownNative thinks but...................

It's written there at 17,55

''Yes, and it means you don't play Atrocity Bingo amongst other reasons. 👍''

Make of that what you will

.

Yes - I guess his assassination highlights the Iranian involvement in this conflict . I 💯 understand the horror everyone feels when they see what is happening to the Palestinians but I wonder if those people have considered what Hamas and the Iranians would do to Israel if the West backed off and left them to it?
( Just for context- I’m an Irish Catholic (Republican) with a parent from the six counties and relatives who have fought in the Irish war of independence)

I don’t know what that means. I do know that I feel very sorry for Palestinians. I don’t agree with people who say “ they voted for Hamas so they deserve what they get” . I understand that in certain circumstances you might feel that voting for thugs is your only option . The Palestinians I knew were good people ( as were the Israelis)
But they are both pawns in a horrible game being played by Iran/ Russia etc

But that doesn’t change the fact that Israel is SURROUNDED by terrorist threat ( much of it supported by Iran , Russia etc) and I understand why they feel afraid.

So do I. I have been to Israel numerous times and have Israeli friends. I do understand that, really I do.

It’s very sad (and wrong and evil ) that innocent Palestinians are being used as proxies in this war But there is a big picture here and blaming the Israelis is ignoring the wider reality

The Israeli NGOs, human rights organisations, volunteering doctors, prominent Israelis, those brave Israelis accompanying Palestinians against settler violence – all do a wonderful and brave job. But their voices are drowned out. I’m sorry, but I have seen very little evidence that the ordinary citizen feels much empathy towards the Palestinians, the majority of which are innocent civilians – men, women, children and babies.

I’m talking about now, and equally 20 years ago when I frequented Israel in a professional capacity. Gazans were treated as a joke. Literally to be laughed at. By people I thought of as co-workers.

This current far-right Israeli government seems to be hell-bent on obliterating the Palestinians. Nothing I have seen dissuades me from that.

Never a truer word was spoken than this:

“The world tells us that nothing can justify October 7th, and yet everything that Israel has done since October 7th can be justified by October 7th.

Yes I understand the threat, but I still see an unjustified abomination and a genocide against thousands of innocent men, women, children and babies.

I haven’t got any answers. I understand your anguish about the terrible and unnecessary suffering of Palestinians. I think we only differ about where the blame lies.

It’s nice that you feel sorry for Palestinians @Limesodaagain , but @DownNative appears to not be able to answer my question, as to whether or not they believe it is Ok to oppress an* entire group of people. They post long commentary’s which are from a perspective that ignores human suffering.

I wonder why it is you feel that @DownNative needs your assistance, and why you could not offer any bridges of understanding to those who have spoken up for Palestinians on this forum in the past, when it is possible words have been misinterpreted, and insults have been unfairly thrown around.

When a source is biased, whether that be an organisation or an individual, surely people should be encouraged to acknowledge this and use their critical thinking skills to attempt to assess the validity of each point. Would you not agree?

It’s not “nice” to “feel sorry “ for people who are suffering .
If I’m honest I have to blank it out ( as I’m sure most of you do )
None of us really know how bloody terrifying it must be to think your family could be bombed in the night. There is nothing “nice” about empathy.
I try very hard NOT to think about what it must be like to be a mother in Gaza .

I think you’re a genuine person and I think you really care about the suffering of the Palestinians.
I don’t think you’re wrong. I just think that you’re blaming Israel for everything when other countries are using the conflict for their own ends