Hamas leader killed

[Billyballyboo]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jul/31/middle-east-crisis-live-updates-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed-iran-israel-gaza-war

Any thoughts on this?

Forgot to attach! 👇

My main concern is how will this affect ceasefire talks as Haniyeh was key to that. The timing is odd as the US kept saying that a ceasefire was close. I wouldn't be surprised if its pushed back now and why did Netanyahu choose this particular time to strike?
How will this now affect the hostages?
I always thought at some point Haniyeh and Sinwar both would be taken out but I didn't imagine it would happen at a critical time like right now
Anyway thats just my two pence and I could also be wrong that it will affect ceasefire talks.

I would quite hope that I am wrong in this instance

Good .

who had two choices to ignore it and allow more attacks or fight back
Very black and white look at things there - ignore or fight back. I think it has been discussed at length on these threads that their fight back has been disproportionate, included many war crimes and killed and maimed innocent children.

either way a win for Hamas who don't care about innocent lives
And Netanyahu, his government and the IDF have proven they don't either

Will Iran retaliate? Could this lead to a bigger war? So many worrying thoughts.
Praying for safety for all especially those who are in that region.

Unfortunately there will be many others just as bad waiting to step up.

This is great and terrible news, all at once. No good deed goes unpunished. Negotiations are off the table. Escalation is a given. But it was always going to turn into a regional conflict. It was just a matter of which (of the many) trigger(s) would eventually serve as the fired bullet for regional war. And Bibi’s recent talk to Congress in Washington didn’t sound like a guy who’s got negotiations on the mind. He wants the US to sharpen his daggers, not place them on a high shelf away from grabbing hands. Peace is not the goal here, tragically. We’re warring our way to peace and we all know how that shit goes.

This was reported from Qatar's PM and I have to say I agree
It doesn't seem like Netanyahu and co want a ceasefire if they have just assassinated the main negotiator when a deal was supposedly close, although Netanyahu was already delaying it by continuing to add additional conditions outside of the agreed framework.

"Political assassinations & continued targeting of civilians in Gaza while talks continue leads us to ask, how can mediation succeed when one party assassinates the negotiator on other side? Peace needs serious partners & a global stance against the disregard for human life.”

Yes, the fact that was carried out on sovereign Iranian land is key.
It's part of the escalation ladder to restore deterrence.
It's also likely to be stronger than the response to the April attack which happened in Syria, without the pre-warnings that they issued then.
Some Iranian leaders have already vowed vengeance.
So currently there are responses due ftom Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Iran.

Good, he explicitly stated that the blood of Palestinians is a good thing because it gives fighters resolve. Anyone who is sad about his death has to sit down and reflect on how many have died under his leadership yet the Palestinians are no closer to statehood.

I would worry what this means for hostages, an attack by Iran and/or Hezbollah and the possibility of dragging the Lebanese into this horrible mess as well.

I don’t think this is about justice, holding leaders accountable for October 7th, or finding a way to peace. All things I support.

I think this is about control and destabilising Palestine, because why now?

• when Palestinian factions have very recently agreed to try and put differences aside and work together.

• when Iran have just appointed a seemingly more moderate President.

• when the tables are shifting to a more moderate position in countries that have offered Israel unconditional support.

As most people will know, Netanyahu has form for putting others at risk in order to destabilise Palestine, except this time he isn’t funding Hamas, he is trying to provoke fighting within the Middle East and a response that can further justify his war.

I don’t know it may strengthen their hand in Gaza whilst making the general region a bit more dangerous. Once you start picking leadership off one by one and start disrupting the chain of command the lower level people will be thinking “oh fuck what are we supposed to do now”.

However given it’s Sinwar in charge in Gaza and there seems to be some distance between those in the tunnels and those in fancy hotels in Qatar I’m not sure that it’s certain what the outcome will be. i can imagine though some of Hamas are eyeing up the proposal of being absorbed into the PLo more favourably.

"Many others just as bad" is one thing, but many others being just as skillful as Haniyeh was in his position at the top of a terrorist organisation is a very, very different thing.

Terrorist leaders don't last long without having a certain degree of skill. And those with skill often agree secret deals with a Sovereign Power to ensure they're not taken out. The last one applies to small groups such as PIRA whose leadership was protected by the Security Forces from assassination attempts but not to Hamas which is really a terror army as opposed to a terrorist group as commonly understood.

Basically, bodies can be replaced easily, but skill cannot. This is a significant blow to Hamas and Hezbollah's leadership also is beginning to feel the heat too with one eliminated already.

Skill level is what makes a terrorist group and terror army dangerous. Not easily replaced as skill takes a lot of time to develop.

Sorry it’s a joke to think any Iranian president allowed to take office under the ayatollah’s is “ moderate”.

The Palestinians factions haven’t agreed anything, they are trying to figure out a way for Hamas to be protected after the war. It’s not for Palestinian civilians , it’s about Hamas’s survival and the PLO getting a foothold back in Gaza.

How is this provoking fighting within arab countries? It’s actually putting them all on the same page. What it’s actually doing is pushing Hezbollah and Iran into a confrontation they don’t want. You will either see a barrage against Israel that will force the USA to step in or an anaemic response which confirms that neither Hezbollah or Tehran actually want a fight.

Amazingly that Israeli strike in April (was it March/April? I need to look it up) on the Iranian consulate in Syria did not become the huge immediate spark for regional war. But it’s certainly been behind the slow burn taking the region to where it’s at now.

While not sovereign territory (which I’d erroneously assumed embassies/consulates were), it was a deadly strike by Israel that took out 3 top Iranian commanders out of the 7 military advisors killed. Iran was not happy, to say the least. I still think this strategic attack remains, among others, one of the greater elements encouraging greater regional escalation. It’s why I honestly believe de-escalation is just not on the table. Especially now.

@SerenityNowInsanityLater but Iran did retaliate then too. It was only due to the excellent defence of Israel and other allies that there was not more casualties. The news at the time reported it as a 'symbolic attack' but did you see the sizes of those ballistic missiles?

The US secretary of state, Antony Blinken, said on Wednesday the US was not involved in or made aware of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, reports Reuters.

He also said it's important to progress with the hostage/ceasefire negotiations

But if you use someone as a shield you are responsible for them you can't take a moral high ground both sides are culpable to a degree but Hamas knew exactly what the result would be and started it for the public sympathy not caring for the result to human life. They go under hospitals schools and homes for the press but they are not being called out by many for it.

Good.

Hamas's deplorable actions does not exonerate Israel for theirs.

They go under hospitals schools and homes for the press
They don't need to do anything "for the press" Israel's actions have created enough press for themselves

but they are not being called out by many for it.
They have been called out continually

👇

Antony Blinken says a lot of stuff. I wish he could actually do more.

Haniyeh’s death is the antithesis of a talisman wielding the powers of peace and negotiation. Peace is not the result of violence. It’s the result of diplomacy which is nowhere to be seen in the region or anywhere for that matter. The US spouts ‘negotiation’ while passing arms to Israel (yes, I know… so it can defend itself). But this is not how diplomacy is conducted.
Can Antony Blinken be part of the engine that delivers the diplomacy necessary to get everyone settled at the negotiating table? Going by his record, I’m not optimistic. I want so badly to be proven wrong.
A ceasefire seems further away than ever.

Those Israeli hostages, under constant threat and control by their captors, are also as vulnerable to death by disease, bullets, and bombs as the Palestinian people. One man’s terrorist may be another man’s freedom fighter, and nobody will ever see eye to eye in the region, but none of that means anything when you’re sharing the same sinking ship. How could hell be any worse?

I read that he wasn't a negotiator.

Sinwar is and has always been key to Hamas' agreeing to a deal - not Haniyeh.

As I said, think of Hamas as having a two tier leadership which runs somewhat parallel in structure. The one in Gaza is more important than the one outside Gaza - especially in military, political and diplomatic terms.