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Conflict in the Middle East

The Lancet publish article estimating 186,000 death toll in Gaza

216 replies

AhNowTed · 08/07/2024 07:01

The Lancet has just published this article "conservatively" estimating that the death toll in the Gaza genocide could be 186,000 people or more. That's 8% of the population, obliterated.

www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(24)01169-3/fulltext

OP posts:
Thread gallery
13
DogInATent · 08/07/2024 10:28

Efacsen · 08/07/2024 09:53

That's a fair point @DogInATent

Not familiar with the Lancet letters page - does it publish responses challenging content of correspondence?

I'm not specifically familiar with The Lancet. But the letters pages of journals are typically the place for toing and froing of arguments. Letters are published more rapidly than articles. Articles will go through a much more rigorous process of editorial and peer review that can take months.

The important thing is that words are important. This is a letter, not an article. And the authors have deliberately chosen their words with care. Lay readers can over-interpret scientific/professional journals when not familiar with the terminology and when they don't pay attention to the exact wording. A phrase such as "it would not be implausible" is very different to "it would be very/highly likely".

anotherlevel · 08/07/2024 10:59

That's horrific @AhNowTed. That's so much more than the 38K that's accounted for. For a small population, that's a significant amount of people to be obliterated.

Dulra · 08/07/2024 11:16

DogInATent · 08/07/2024 10:28

I'm not specifically familiar with The Lancet. But the letters pages of journals are typically the place for toing and froing of arguments. Letters are published more rapidly than articles. Articles will go through a much more rigorous process of editorial and peer review that can take months.

The important thing is that words are important. This is a letter, not an article. And the authors have deliberately chosen their words with care. Lay readers can over-interpret scientific/professional journals when not familiar with the terminology and when they don't pay attention to the exact wording. A phrase such as "it would not be implausible" is very different to "it would be very/highly likely".

Yes and it is incredibly frustrating and unsatisfactory (to put it mildly) that we have to rely on letters in the Lancet rather than evidence from independent investigators in Gaza.

keenforhelp · 08/07/2024 11:30

Sorry but no evidence in this writing .
The modal verb "could" refers to an estimation of indirect deaths that have not happened yet anyway.
Quite a misleading title tbh.

AhNowTed · 08/07/2024 11:33

anotherlevel · 08/07/2024 10:59

That's horrific @AhNowTed. That's so much more than the 38K that's accounted for. For a small population, that's a significant amount of people to be obliterated.

I'd be more surprised if it wasn't that number.

How could it not be, when the place has been flattened and bombed more than London, Dresden and Hamburg combined during WWII.

OP posts:
anotherlevel · 08/07/2024 11:36

@keenforhelp where is your evidence to support no indirect deaths? Do you not think that there is a high probability that hundreds and hundreds of people would have died indirectly through being trapped under rubble etc?
Can Israel do no wrong?

EasterIssland · 08/07/2024 11:38

keenforhelp · 08/07/2024 11:30

Sorry but no evidence in this writing .
The modal verb "could" refers to an estimation of indirect deaths that have not happened yet anyway.
Quite a misleading title tbh.

Quite a misleading title tbh

that sentence stands out quite a lot to me.

israelilefty · 08/07/2024 12:05

anotherlevel · 08/07/2024 11:36

@keenforhelp where is your evidence to support no indirect deaths? Do you not think that there is a high probability that hundreds and hundreds of people would have died indirectly through being trapped under rubble etc?
Can Israel do no wrong?

That's not the meaning of indirect deaths - those would be direct deaths. Indirect deaths are those affected by the side effects of war: like lack of healthcare, insufficient food and so on. The number of indirect deaths cited in the letter is probably extrapolated from other conflicts in the region; for example the US-led wars after 9/11 are estimated to have caused 3.6-3.8 million indirect deaths, in addition to 940,000 direct deaths.

See watson.brown.edu/costsofwar/

Parkingt111 · 08/07/2024 12:14

It's not only the indirect deaths that will be a real tragedy but the emotional trauma. In December last year the IDF bombed Gaza's largest IVF fertility clinic, where in one single strike they destroyed more than 4000 frozen embryos. When asked for the reason of striking the centre, the only response given was they would look into it.
This sort of brutal trauma is not something that can be quantified with figures.

LastTrainEast · 08/07/2024 12:20

This reply has been deleted

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

Parkingt111 · 08/07/2024 12:22

Parkingt111 · 08/07/2024 12:14

It's not only the indirect deaths that will be a real tragedy but the emotional trauma. In December last year the IDF bombed Gaza's largest IVF fertility clinic, where in one single strike they destroyed more than 4000 frozen embryos. When asked for the reason of striking the centre, the only response given was they would look into it.
This sort of brutal trauma is not something that can be quantified with figures.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/5000-lives-one-shell-gazas-ivf-embryos-destroyed-by-israeli-strike-2024-04-17/

For reference

anotherlevel · 08/07/2024 12:22

@israelilefty yes I agree, you're right. I was out at the time with my toddler hence the "etc".

keenforhelp · 08/07/2024 12:34

EasterIssland · 08/07/2024 11:38

Quite a misleading title tbh

that sentence stands out quite a lot to me.

Why?

LastTrainEast · 08/07/2024 12:48

I see I got deleted, but so did a lot of people. Were they also defending Jews? I know we have a Labour government now.

I'm sure we're all seen Keir's speech about 7/7

Parkingt111 · 08/07/2024 13:11

@LastTrainEast I'm not sure what point you are trying to make by referencing that we now have a labour government.
Could you elaborate please? Is it due to him (Starmer) calling for a ceasefire?

Buddysbunda · 08/07/2024 13:15

It's just horrendous really isn't it. I can't begin to image how long it will take for life to begin to go back to 'normal' for Palestinians in Gaza. Can bodies recover from severe malnourishment as infants and children? Surely that alone will have long lasting effects on not just this generation but future generations too. The psychological effects of living under such intense stress and fear for a prolonged period of time are going to be enormous. The Infrastructure that is needed to support a healthy life has been so badly destroyed that it will no doubt take decades to repair.

I very much doubt we will know the full details of just how much damage has been inflicted on Palestinians for a very long time. It has just been an assault on all fronts, everything from education and healthcare to water and energy infrastructure to historical monuments have been destroyed. How you move on from that is anyone's guess really.

EasterIssland · 08/07/2024 13:16

Parkingt111 · 08/07/2024 13:11

@LastTrainEast I'm not sure what point you are trying to make by referencing that we now have a labour government.
Could you elaborate please? Is it due to him (Starmer) calling for a ceasefire?

Edited

I also don’t know either what does the British government have to do with the lancet who are the ones that have predicted 186k deaths. And who have to be the ones defending the Jews. Also I assume the other poster meant 7-10 rather than 7-7 which were the London attacks ?

Lolapusht · 08/07/2024 13:20

That is not a peer reviewed paper and is, as someone else has pointed out “correspondence” ie a letter to the editor ie an opinion piece.

It also uses unsubstantiated figures, extrapolates data in an irresponsible way and is hugely inflammatory.

For anyone watching to do a quick bit of research to ascertain how good this piece is, here’s a good thread that breaks down in excellent detail each proposition. You know, like good academic critical analysis.

x.com/supertolerant/status/1810094810318979503?s=46&t=OcT4uVFDgKzZK5bQN0DMLw

Lolapusht · 08/07/2024 13:36

Buddysbunda · 08/07/2024 13:15

It's just horrendous really isn't it. I can't begin to image how long it will take for life to begin to go back to 'normal' for Palestinians in Gaza. Can bodies recover from severe malnourishment as infants and children? Surely that alone will have long lasting effects on not just this generation but future generations too. The psychological effects of living under such intense stress and fear for a prolonged period of time are going to be enormous. The Infrastructure that is needed to support a healthy life has been so badly destroyed that it will no doubt take decades to repair.

I very much doubt we will know the full details of just how much damage has been inflicted on Palestinians for a very long time. It has just been an assault on all fronts, everything from education and healthcare to water and energy infrastructure to historical monuments have been destroyed. How you move on from that is anyone's guess really.

You know there’s food aid in Gaza? In some areas, tinned food is lying in the streets uneaten as the people don’t want to eat it. Markets are full of fruit/veg (lots of it from Israel, at least they’re good for something), there’s meat available, sugar’s still expensive but available, not sure if the price is cigarettes has come down yet as that was really annoying the Gazans. Hamas recently captured, tortured and stoned some men for stealing food, I assume to set an example so they can continue to control distribution. If there are Gazans starving, it’s not because of Israel, it’s because of Hamas and the other terrorist groups who are keeping it for themselves or selling it. They take all that aid that should be given to those starving Gazans for free and sell it in the markets. That’s if there’s anyone that wants to buy it and why would you when you can get better food in the market?

The infrastructure to have a good life was left behind by Israel but was destroyed/taken over by Hamas. They could have built bomb shelters, desalination plants, had a thriving agriculture system to provide food but instead they dug up water pipes to make rockets, used concrete and money to build tunnels instead of humanitarian infrastructure and trashed the greenhouses/farms that were already very productive. Then, they launched the 10/7 knowing full well what the consequences for the people would be while the Hamas leadership skulked in Qatar on their 5* hotels posting videos saying they’re willing to sacrifice every last Palestinian in order to defeat Israel.

But sure, it’s all Israel’s fault.

ConnieCounter · 08/07/2024 13:41

Oh dear 🤦‍♀️

Efacsen · 08/07/2024 13:45

Lolapusht · 08/07/2024 13:20

That is not a peer reviewed paper and is, as someone else has pointed out “correspondence” ie a letter to the editor ie an opinion piece.

It also uses unsubstantiated figures, extrapolates data in an irresponsible way and is hugely inflammatory.

For anyone watching to do a quick bit of research to ascertain how good this piece is, here’s a good thread that breaks down in excellent detail each proposition. You know, like good academic critical analysis.

x.com/supertolerant/status/1810094810318979503?s=46&t=OcT4uVFDgKzZK5bQN0DMLw

Two major problems with that thread from twitter unknowns

Hamas figures tho' unsubstantiated' are generally accepted by the US State Dept and many humanitarian bodies based on their longstanding experience of dealing with Hamas. The Israeli government is something of an outlier in persistently questioning the figures

These are not 'future deaths' these are adults and children who have been dying over the last 9 months - from starvation, lack of antibiotics for treatable infections, lack of medication for chronic conditions eg cancer, diabetes, heart disease etc and many other causes

I'm looking forward to informed comment from other experts replying on the Lancet website

Efacsen · 08/07/2024 13:48

ConnieCounter · 08/07/2024 13:41

Oh dear 🤦‍♀️

Indeed

keenforhelp · 08/07/2024 13:53

Efacsen · 08/07/2024 13:45

Two major problems with that thread from twitter unknowns

Hamas figures tho' unsubstantiated' are generally accepted by the US State Dept and many humanitarian bodies based on their longstanding experience of dealing with Hamas. The Israeli government is something of an outlier in persistently questioning the figures

These are not 'future deaths' these are adults and children who have been dying over the last 9 months - from starvation, lack of antibiotics for treatable infections, lack of medication for chronic conditions eg cancer, diabetes, heart disease etc and many other causes

I'm looking forward to informed comment from other experts replying on the Lancet website

Very well put and I totally agree. The thread title is a an inflammatory polemic as it suggests 1860000 have been killed.

Efacsen · 08/07/2024 14:01

keenforhelp · 08/07/2024 13:53

Very well put and I totally agree. The thread title is a an inflammatory polemic as it suggests 1860000 have been killed.

Personally think it's more likely to just be a mistake [it says article in the URL and confusingly also on the actual page too] rather than 'inflammatory polemic'

.

keenforhelp · 08/07/2024 14:03

Maybe the OP should withdraw or change the thread title if there is an error to avoid people feeling it is inflammatory?

Swipe left for the next trending thread