War Hezbollah and Israel

[EasterIssland]

News seem to indicate a war between Israel and Hezbollah seems imminent , hopefully they’re wrong

Biden has said they’ll support Israel and several ships are on their way to support Israel

from what I’ve read , hezbollah has got more and stronger weapons than Hamas in Gaza

I can only think about how many innocent civilians are going to die because incompetent politicians and many times men.

Same old story. Why will they agree to a ceasefire when they think they can do whatever they want and still get funded by the US.

Nobody said that there was a written agreement, again you've made something up and formulated an answer to a question that wasn't asked.

There are often rules of engagement on any battlefield and your knowledge of this particular field seems extremely limited.

I think I will chose to believe the many diplomats (including Alastair Crooke former Mi6 spy, who has negotiated on behalf of Israel for the release of hostages held by Hamas and Hezbollah and has back channels to both groups) and military personnel (American, Israeli and from the region).
Ask yourself why after only 1 day of Hezbollah firing 400 rockets and drones, diplomats from the UN and various European countries are begging Hezbollah to stop?

From an Israeli Newspaper today:
“Hezbollah has yet to employ 10% of its capabilities,” military affairs correspondent Yossi Yehoshua wrote in Yediot Ahronot, Israel's largest daily newspaper. “The euphoria that is evident among the decision-makers and some of the public should be placed back in the attic: the situation is still complex and flammable.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/israel-ap-hezbollah-hamas-lebanon-b2619614.html

It's crazy how much power one individual can hold, especially considering he's not even the PM.

They also used the Hannibal Directive on 07/10.
IDF Ordered Hannibal Directive on October 7 to Prevent Hamas Taking Soldiers Captive - Israel News - Haaretz.com

Haaretz is behind a paywall, ABC in Australia also released an article on the use of the Hannibal Directive.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-07/israel-hannibal-directive-kidnap-hamas-gaza-hostages-idf/104224430

1. I am aware of the history of Hezbollah before 1982.
2. I was just pointing out the role of Israel in that massacre, i e blocking every single exit of the refugee camp, making sure that many, many died. The reason why this massacre happened is not relevant. It was allowed to happen by Ariel Sharon's who escaped justice. Let's not distract from that.

Israel: Ariel Sharon’s Troubling Legacy | Human Rights Watch (hrw.org)

1. I had a Lebanese friend who studied to become a doctor in Paris. We spent many nights talking about the civil war and the different factions involved. She couldn't wait to go back home to help her country men and women. She did as soon as she graduated.

Thanks for that. I have a subscription to Haarezt so don't see the paywall.

Entire buildings have just been flattened in Lebanon. The destruction is terrible, does anyone have family there? I don't know anyone there but it looks really bad.

I have friends with family in Lebanon. It's awful, they're so scared for them.

Oh no, it is so scary, the bbc news reporter was recording when a big airstrike took place behind them, very close to a school where the displaced from the south were seeking refuge. Unfortunately it doesn't seem like a truce is on the cards anymore.

It feels very hopeless tonight. I know it's a test, we have to have faith. We just see to the horizon, but Allah is All-knowing. There will be a reason, a meaning, but tonight... tonight is hard.

Agree it seems to have got horribly worse, again, tonight, what a mess.

Has the Hezbollah leader been killed? I think, God willing, that this would be a major victory for Israel as Hezbollah and been put on the back foot. It seems increasingly weak and there is conjecture that Israel may have chosen the right path in striking now and Hezbollah may not use its purported arsenal of rockets.

I would think that morale amongst Hezbollah must rock bottom at the moment and I wonder how near as an organisation they are close to dissolving?

It’s no clear whether they’ve been killed. 6 buildings have been destroyed and with it families.

also, I really doubt that if they’ve been killed this is the end.

https://news.sky.com/story/amp/confusion-around-hassan-nasrallahs-condition-and-it-could-force-iran-into-a-decision-13223396

I just think the Hezbollah war may finish soon actually as they are not relishing to what most would see as an all our assault by Israel including targeting their leader. It may be Hezbollah stop firing rockets for their own survival and go for deep cover for a couple of years to rebuild. Iran hasn't made any military response and it does feel like Hezbollah have been pushed under the bus to a large extent.

I don't think Lebanon is going to be the quagmire of Gaza and this war may be a brief one. I think Israel so sense a victory, perhaps an unexpected one, here.

A journalist in South Lebanon that i listened to last night (as bombs were going off) described the structure of Hezbollah. As an organisation they are like the Hydra, cut off one head (Nasrallah) and three grow back.

Their leaders train multiple replacements and rotate carrying out the role to learn.
If Nasrallah is dead, then his replacement will just carry on, with the added benefit that the IDF does not have years of intelligence on this replacement.

They are currently bombing Israel right now, this is the Red alert map.

Whatever has happened the region is on the path to war.

Why has Hezbollah's repose been muted given the alleged immense arsenal of weapons they have? Is the strategy to just wait it out?

Is Iran going to be forced to do something or lose credibility as a regional power?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c981g8mrl8lt

Breaking: Some more now on the IDF's statement that the leader of Hezbollah has been killed.

In the statement, it says that other senior members of the Iran-backed group were killed in addition to Hassan Nasrallah - including the commander of Hezbollah's southern front.

The IDF says that fighter jets conducted a "targeted strike" on the central headquarters of Hezbollah, which it says were located "underground embedded under a residential building in the area of Dahieh in Beirut".

It adds that the strike was conducted while the group's "senior chain of command" was operating from the suburb of Dahieh in southern Beirut - a stronghold of the armed group.

As a reminder, we've not yet had a comment through from Hezbollah.

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It would be great if, with this apparent success, Israel could consider this is something of a win and come to an agreement on a ceasefire.

Blue sky thinking maybe, but here's hoping.

I think that the medial in general may have overestimated Hezbollah and a swift Israeli victory would perhaps (?) mean a ceasfire. If Iran does not respond now it really is a busted flush and the Islamist militias in the region will lose a huge amount of morale and I wonder if their infrastructure will be teminally broken.

Being objective we can't deny this actually is a military success for Israel. The US are going to be missed though as Antony Blinken is cleaning egg off his face after sponsoring cease fire talks and it was obvious BNs visit to the UN was a ruse.

Also there is a knock on effect with Hamas and surely word must filter through about what is happening in Lebanon and surely there morale must be impacted as well.

Let's hope with more terrorists gone more moderate voices feel brave enough to speak out in Lebanon.

The guardian

Hezbollah has issued a statement confirming the death of its secretary general, Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike on the southern suburbs of Beirut on Friday, ending his 32-year tenure as the group’s leader.
The group said in a statement:
His eminence, the master of resistance, the righteous servant, has passed away to be with his lord who is pleased with him as a great martyr.
The leadership of Hezbollah pledges ... to continue its jihad in confronting the enemy [Israel], supporting Gaza and Palestine, and defending Lebanon and its steadfast and honourable people.
The statement did not mention who would succeed Nasrallah, or how the group would respond to the assassination of its long-time leader.
Hezbollah added it would continue its battle against Israel “in support of Gaza and Palestine, and in defence of Lebanonand its steadfast and honourable people”.

Yeah, I can't shake the feeling of deja vu remembering when George W. Bush stood in front of a banner saying "Misson Accomplished" soon after the invasion of Iraq in 2003. America is still in Iraq today and 6 to 8 trillion dollars poorer from wars in the region.
Interesting times ahead, there are no rules now and the next leader may chose not to target mostly military assets.

Syrians have been celebrating since yesterday.

It really does look like Iran can only helplessly look on while it's ally in Lebanon.is dismembered. I think one thing I think is widely accepted is that this shock and awe from the Israelis, the pagers, the widespread air strikes, now the destruction of Hizbollah's leader and it's senior command, all in an incredibly short time frame.

I don't know if you can say this is escalation currently because it looks likes Hizbollah and Iran are on no position to escalate. You can say that the politics of niddle east are changing.

One thing I am now starting to suspect was that the proposed peace plan unintentionally or intentionally has been used as cover for this series of strikes. The coordination of BNs speech to the UN, the proximity to the anniversary of October 7th are all connected.

More than 50,000 Lebanese and Syrians living in Lebanon have now crossed into Syria fleeing Israeli airstrikes. Well over 200,000 are displaced inside Lebanon.

https://x.com/FilippoGrandi/status/1840008170053238848?