Netanyahu rules out two state solution

[ConnieCounter]

Netanyahu rejects a Palestinian state. Surprise surprise.

What is his plan for Gaza?

Resettle with Israeli settlements? Return to continued Israeli occupation?

How can the US, UK, EU and others continue to support this war when they claim to be in favour of a two state solution?

https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-news-01-18-2024-73d552c6e73e0dc3783a0a11b2b5f67d?taid=65a95f27cc8ea90001513093&utm_campaign=TrueAnthem&utm_medium=AP&utm_source=Twitter

There are actions that could be taken for example calls for Hamas to step down or be removed from Palestinians outside of Gaza or even the protesters in say London. Why isn't this happening?

Currently the absence of such calls might be seen as tacit support for Hamas.

I think its because we wouldn't know all that's being done via diplomatic channels. Someone already said upthread that Egypt asked Hamas to leave and they wouldn't. I expect there is considerable pressure on Hamas/Iran diplomatically. Probably why we haven't yet seen the regional escalation so many were worried about.

With respect of protesters, I am not a protester but assume most who are, are protesting the humanitarian crisis and wanting an immediate ceasefire. I don't think too much can be read into it about "tacit support for Hamas".

Personally I think if there was a ceasefire and aid going to Gaza so the risk of mass starvation was reduced then it would be a lot easier to talk about the future administration and "getting rid of Hamas". Otherwise Palestinians are understandably going to be focussed on the humanitarian crisis rather than politics and "who is in charge"

Could you use the IDF as your comparator rather than the U.K.?

I have seen figures that range from 35% to 70% of fighting age Israeli men & women have served in the IDF and can be called up as reservists.

“Ordinary Gazans then have the choice (and it is important that it is their choice). To stay and fight Israel in the chaos, destruction and misery under Hamas (or Hamas 2.0) or peace and prosperity under a West Bank model and control.”

@1dayatatime , Ordinary Gazans are not fighting Israel,so that is not an option. There is no peace or prosperity under a West Bank model and control so that also isn’t an acceptable option.

Ultimately, the Israelis need to decide what they want.

The Americans will ultimately make their support for Israel conditional upon a two state solution and there is only so long unconditional support for Israel will even hold up in the Jewish lobby.

It is a sad thing that Israel is becoming itself radicalised, miles away from the ideas of the original Kibbutzim. It is partially because of being continuously attacked and partly demographic, with some of the new Jewish settlers analogous to Hamas in believing in their innate racial superiority.

I hope that Netanyahu is voted out at the first possible opportunity and the Middle East moves towards a long term peace.

@yummyscummymummy01

"What's the alternative to a two state solution that is being discussed in Israel? What are people envisioning? Genuine question"

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As you can see I have posted in good faith one idea about a way forward that has subsequently been criticised by other posters who have been notably remiss in coming up with their own solutions that doesn't go beyond "ceasefire now" and which would mean that Hamas remains in power and free to continue their attacks on Israel.

There in lies the problem that the debate becomes ever more bitter and polarised so that any compromise or solution becomes that much harder to achieve, sadly leaving the only solution left as "last man standing"

“In a three-part interview with Kuwaiti podcaster Amar Taki, posted during the second week of January 2024, Khaled Mashal, the leader of Hamas abroad rejected the two-state solution. He said that there is a consensus among Palestinians that they will not give up their rights to Palestine from the Mediterranean River to the Mediterranean Sea”Source

Calls for a two state solution appear to be pie in the sky.

I'm sorry, "the Jewish lobby"?

@wearebewitched ,

Apologies, times change! That was a perfectly acceptable phrase but clearly isn’t now. I guess I mean the Israeli lobby as it now seems to be termed.

As I am Jewish, it clearly wasn’t intended to be antisemitic.

Did you mean AIPAC? I think they are a pro-Israel lobby. It does seem like they have a lot of power over the American politicians.

A official ceasefire that is internationally mediated would not mean that Hamas remains in power or free to continue attacks. A ceasefire is necessary to then negotiate the day after wherein other options such as UN peacekeeping can be tabled. It is necessary to assess the damages to Gazan civilian infrastructure and homes, and most importantly, to stop the humanitarian crisis.

The most popular solution in the international community is the two state solution.

More due to Nethanyu’s rejection than Hamas because Nethanyu has the more powerful negotiation position.

@MercanDede

"More due to Nethanyu’s rejection than Hamas because Nethanyu has the more powerful negotiation position."

Surely it is a simple yay or nay to the idea, no?

Lets say Mashal agrees to the idea of a two-state solution (likely in bad faith but we'll overlook that) and Netanyahu does not. Result? Massive propaganda win for those chippy underdogs, Hamas. The left are in rapture and Netanyahu's Western allies desert him. Naughty, naughty Israelis.

Mashal, however, has stuck to his guns, nay, doubled down. What's the play here, then? Something bigger going down?

Sorry, @kirinm - I must have mis-remembered the pre-October poll, probably confusing it with the Reuters one showing 70% support for the October attack (which did shock me)

I've found this article and a few others, which suggest 50% of Gazans supporting a 2-state solution prior to 7th October, and only 20% supported armed resistance.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231128-rare-survey-details-how-gazans-wary-of-hamas-before-israel-attack

One thing - you're misunderstanding my post about the number of combatants. I'm not at all suggesting that there are 500k Hamas combatants. Estimates at the start of the war were 30-40k, and 9k have reportedly now been killed.

I said that there are 500k Palestinians of fighting age (and allowing for gender) in the whole of Gaza. The reason for calculating that number was to get an idea of what proportion of 'ordinary Gazan people' are actively trying to destroy Israel - since that helps to see how reasonable Israel's fears are about a 2-state solution.

30-40k fighters out of a possible total of 500k is a lot. If you live on a street with 50 houses, then 3 or 4 of the homes on your street would have someone in them going out with a gun to attack Israel. I think you'd know who they were! Another 4 households would agree with them that war with Israel is the way forward, although they wouldn't be fighting themselves. And 35 out of the 50 houses would support the Hamas attack on 7th October.

We can't see Hamas as this separate, tiny group who have descended from Qatar and are enslaving the Palestinians against their will.

Islamic militants are within and part of Gazan society. Not all Palestinians agree with them, but a lot do.

No one is saying that this means Palestinians are deserving of the war, or that Palestinian civilians are legitimate targets. I absolutely, categorically don't believe that.

But it does explain why the 2-state solution doesn't seem possible right now.

What is the alternative? As I've said, I don't know. But I like @1dayatatime 's plan. Take out Hamas so that there's some kind of chance. Help the West Bank to flourish - still with security control, since how could Israel allow open borders and an army when there is such high support within the population for attacking Israel?

But the change needs to come from Palestinians changing their minds. Even if it takes a full generation or longer.

@statsfun "Estimates at the start of the war were 30-40k, and 9k have reportedly now been killed."

9k Hamas members have been killed? I thought 9k was the total amount of Gazan men that had been killed in total?

Unless you are suggesting a mechanism by which "Ordinary Gazans" can leave Gaza for the West Bank?

Which is domicide and will probably be considered a second Nakbar. However, from the point of view of saving lives and giving those kids a shot at jobs and education, it might be the only game in town. Even if Israel stops bombing tomorrow and throws open the gates for aid, rebuilding the schools, universities, mosques, shops, and amenities will take a mountain of work. Two years? Three? At least if support options were set up in the West Bank and the Gazans could travel to and fro (or be given a cast-iron right to return), we might get somewhere.

Which circles back to the security problem again. I can't see Israel agreeing to free movement after October 7th. I suspect they would love to wash their hands of this headache and pass the border control to Egypt or Jordan (WB), but neither of those countries want it.

My very rough estimates guessed 10% of the Hamas fighters being female and another 10% being aged 16-18.

And sadly the vulnerable are more likely to be killed in war - whether that's inexperienced young fighters, women struggling to move children and elderly dependents to safety, or children succumbing to illness.

Having said that, I have no inside information, and can't really judge whether the numbers stack up. They're possible, but only just. Truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Oh and another indication of your true thoughts

Massive propaganda win for those chippy underdogs, Hamas. The left are in rapture and Netanyahu's Western allies desert him. Naughty, naughty Israelis.

Why are you implying "the left" support Hamas? Stop trying to turn a human tragedy into a culture war.

@MercanDede

"A official ceasefire that is internationally mediated would not mean that Hamas remains in power or free to continue attacks. A ceasefire is necessary to then negotiate the day after wherein other options such as UN peacekeeping can be tabled. "

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The flaw with this suggestion is what if Hamas just say "Nah - we are staying in control and what are you going to do about it". Hamas don't care about ordinary Gazans so whether that be sanctions or military intervention it is still ordinary Gazans that suffer.

The Egyptians (who are really trying their best to de escalate this crisis) proposed a plan whereby Hamas step down and they just said "no thanks"

As for a UN peace keeping force - firstly it assumes that Hamas would accept them, secondly which country in their right mind would agree to send peace keeping forces to Gaza (well except maybe for Iran) and thirdly this hasn't worked out too well for Israeli security with the UN peace keepers in Lebanon failing to prevent attacks by Hezbollah.

@AdamRyan

"Why are you implying "the left" support Hamas? Stop trying to turn a human tragedy into a culture war"

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Whilst it is impossible to state that the left are supporting Hamas it is possible to state that support for Hamas is more likely to come from a pro Palestinian position than a pro Israeli position.

It is also possible to state that the left are more pro Palestinian than pro Israeli and that historically in the UK anti semitism has been more of a problem in the left than the right.

@statsfun

"But the change needs to come from Palestinians changing their minds. Even if it takes a full generation or longer."

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And the best way of changing their minds is to give them a better alternative and hope through a successful West Bank.

Everyone must surely hope for that.

How achievable is it, do you think?

Thats about as helpful as me saying "support for the total obliteration of Gaza is more likely to come from the Right than the Left".
Just why? Unnecessary

Everyone must surely hope for that.

How achievable is it, do you think?

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In short a long time but the sooner you start the sooner it can be achieved. There is no reason for example for it not to start today with a halt on all further settlement in WB.

On a more positive note the peace in Northern Ireland was quickly achieved in part by the rapid economic growth in the ROI and NI where ordinary citizens were more interested in buying a home getting a good job and buying groceries in the lowest cost place than they were in the conflict.

@AdamRyan

"Thats about as helpful as me saying "support for the total obliteration of Gaza is more likely to come from the Right than the Left".
Just why? Unnecessary"

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Because it's a fact and basing discussions on facts rather than emotional conviction is the only way to find a solution.