Israel/Hamas War - Ceasefire

[Toggenburgsaregreat]

Each Saturday we are seeing demonstrations in London where people are marching with placards and calling for a ceasefire in the Hamas/Israel war.

However, it is difficult to know how the supporters of Palestine think this can be achieved? (Interestingly, no calls for Hamas to cease hostilities and return the hostages were heard - so is this really a call for unilateral disarmament?)

And who should Israel negotiate a ceasefire with? Hamas, ISIS, ISSP, The Muslim Brotherhood - all of these groups/any of these groups?

What is it the supporters of Palestine actually want?

I would hope we all want a permanent ceasefire.

In all fairness - and, naturally, I am not Hamas - I can sort of understand their position on this one (if confirmed).

The last "temporary ceasefire" or "humanitarian pause" was beyond cynical, if we are being honest:

For about a week, people were not being bombed to death in their dozens on a daily basis. Still struggling to obtain basic life necessities but: at least not dying by being crushed by the collapsing houses they lived in ...

... and then it all started all over again, with even more intense bombardment. Even more fire on the ground.

Frankly, if someone offered me a choice between "die today - or get to live miserably for a few weeks and die after that", I might also just say "fuck this shit, I guess today it is then!".

I have been to a war zone. This particular one, to be exact. Well, the West Bank - at the hight of the 2nd Intifada. Which was "a walk in the park" compared to Gaza 2023 - but it very much did include airstrikes and shelling. And they are fucking terrifying! I never would have said the above back then. I would have thought "well, take a chance - things might change within a few weeks, they tend to around here". But, personally, I would not have that confidence right now.

The entire situation of any "not today, Satan!" attitude hinges on the hope that tomorrow may be better. Take that away and the cost/benefit analysis changes fundamentally.

It is, frankly, a ludicrous suggestion, given all this!

Also, if I were Hamas - again: I am not, I am an atheist leftie and, for somewhat obvious reasons (I should hope) not into Islamism; but I am also a realist: I would not enter any "pause for prisoners" deal. Realistically speaking, more Palestinians have been arrested and imprisoned than released. From a purely "win/loss analysis" point of view, this constitutes a "net loss". Speaking as a corporate executive (which is what I do as a day job): never would I ever renew such a loss-making deal. In my for-profit firm, I would be fired for it!

Thanks for your insight @HeidiInTheBigCity Really interesting.

Sky news just reported this update

One-month ceasefire under consideration by Israel and Hamas - Reuters
Israel and Hamas are considering a one-month-long ceasefire, three sources have told the Reuters news agency.
During the proposed ceasefire, Israeli hostages could be released in exchange for Palestinians held by Israel.
But the plan is being held up by the two sides' differences over how to bring a permanent end to the war, the sources said.
Intense mediation efforts led by Qatar, the US and Egypt have focused on a phased approach to release different categories of Israeli hostages.
An official briefed on the negotiations said the length of an initial ceasefire had been narrowed to about 30 days.
However, Hamas has refused to move forward with the plans until the future conditions of a permanent ceasefire are agreed, according to six sources.
Israel and Hamas are said to be communicating through the mediators rather than talking directly.

With how intense the bombing has been with mass slaughter and wide spread destruction, I can see why a ceasefire is being pushed over a pause.

See my previous post: I can sort of see the "where Hamas is coming from" position here!

In my actual day job, among other functions, I am a senior negotiator. Now, of course, I do not negotiate over "people live or die" - my "battleground" tends to revolve more around "fewer or more millions - and who can take whom to court for what if push comes to shove". I am also a trainer for "how to negotiate".

But the single most important lesson I have ever learned about negotiating theory "always mind your opportunity cost - never fall victim to the scam of conceding strategic goals for tactical concessions. Never give up something vital for you in exchange for something dispensable for them - unless, on a strategic level - this results in a win/win".

I'm not about to write a whole essay on "negotiation theory" here but: in essence, if Hamas were paying me (they are not; we aren't even talking!!!), I would have said to them "bad deal ... walk away! This is a "single vendor" kind of deal - and time plays in your favour in terms of the optics!"

This is, again, not me endorsing them - but it is what I would advise as a professional!

My calculation would be that any "temporary" pause has the same net benefits and losses, just on a different timeline!

Might post - too tired now - what I would advise the Israeli government to do tomorrow or so.

And, no, I am not an IR expert - I am an expert on "how one negotiates a deal that maximises my benefits".

Thank your for your insight.

I'm not too sure who the 'we' is?

If Hamas says they want a ceasefire, are they going to re-write their 'mission statement' that says they want to State of Israel removed from the map?

In Hamas's Charter it says -

"On the Destruction of Israel:

---------

'Israel will exist and will continue to exist until Islam will

obliterate it, just as it obliterated others before it.' (Preamble)"

"Peace initiatives, and so-called peaceful solutions and

international conferences are in contradiction to the principles of

the Islamic Resistance Movement... Those conferences are no more than

a means to appoint the infidels as arbitrators in the lands of

Islam... There is no solution for the Palestinian problem except by

Jihad. Initiatives, proposals and international conferences are but a

waste of time, an exercise in futility.' (Article 13)"

Is Isreal committed to stop killing, arresting, allowing settlers, stealing land , imposing controls like they were doing before 7-10. Let’s be honest what there was before 7-10 wasn’t a ceasefire.

@EasterIssland "Is Isreal committed to stop killing, arresting, allowing settlers, stealing land , imposing controls like they were doing before 7-10. Let’s be honest what there was before 7-10 wasn’t a ceasefire."

So what you are saying is that neither side is negotiating in good faith?

@Toggenburgsaregreat can you give us examples of the Israeli government negotiating in good faith?

Um, whatever your are quoting from, it's not hamas current charter.

😂

Has anyone seen this or know more about it?

www.instagram.com/p/C2expHvojMW/?igsh=OWJ2cTM2dHR5azNl

Um, whatever your are quoting from, it's not hamas current charter.

How about this then? It's from only a few days ago.
"We Reject the Two-State Solution; October 7 Has Shown that Liberating Palestine from the River to the Sea Is Realistic and Has Already Begun"

https://twitter.com/MEMRIReports/status/1749049490009440569

Yes. What I’m saying is that none will follow a real ceasefire. They won’t be in war but not a ceasefire

2023 before Oct 7th was already the deadliest year for Palestinians killed by Israel. That isn’t a ceasefire for me. A ceasefire is where Israel nor Hamas kill

There was another thread that has now been deleted in aibu. From what I read In that thread this is coming from dm scaremongering. What apparently has been said is that the they need more cash to incentivise people wanting to join the army

What did the charter say when Hamas were democratically elected? The charter that people in Gaza, and many in the West Bank, voted for.

Let's not pretend Palestinians didn't knowingly vote in a genocidal terrorists group.

OK,
So if I have got it wrong please link me to the correct one.

Almost 20 years ago. At what point do we stop holding the decisions of the past against people today?

This is a pretty interesting article. It claims the votes were 46% Hamas and 41% Fatah in 2007.

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/10/was-hamas-elected-to-govern-gaza-george-w-bush-2006-palestinian-election.html

Most Gazans weren't even alive when Hamas was voted in. Only those over the age of 35 (23%) of the population we're of voting she in the last election. 75% of which voted.

So 17% of the current population voted in the last election, not all of which would have viewed for Hamas.

I'm not sure that justifies the collective punishment of 2m people, 40% of which are children.

And this shows Hamas's position -
Ismail Haniyeh speech on Oct. 7, 2023 after Hamas attack on Israel
“Today, the enemy has had a political, military, intelligence, security and moral defeat inflicted upon it, and we shall crown it, with the grace of God, with a crushing defeat that will expel it from our lands, our holy city of Al-Quds, our Al-Aqsa mosque, and the release of our prisoners from the jails of the Zionist occupation. Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was launched from Gaza, but it will extend to the West Bank, to Al-Quds and to our people within the territories occupied in 1948, as well as to the Resistance and the Palestinian people abroad.

“Our objective is clear: we want to liberate our land, our holy sites, our Al-Aqsa mosque, our prisoners. We have no hesitation about this. This is the goal that is worthy of this battle, worthy of this heroism, worthy of this courage. Al-Qassam Brigades made the enemy lose its balance in just a few minutes, with this grand and blessed incursion; with this epic presence of men who write history with their blood and their guns; with their footsteps that crush the occupying invaders. And we say to all countries, including our beloved Arab countries: you must know that this entity which is incapable of protecting itself from our fighters is incapable of providing you with security or protection. All the normalization and recognition processes, all the agreements that have been signed [with Israel] can never put an end to this battle.”

Here's the guardian report from the time:

https://www.theguardian.com/guardianweekly/story/0,,1699719,00.html

Hamas has killed more than 400 Israelis in about 60 suicide bombings aside from attacks on the army and Jewish settlers. But Palestinian voters did not elect Hamas to go on attacking Israelis. Just a year ago, Mahmoud Abbas won the presidential election on a platform of peace with Israel and an end to bloodshed.

But Palestinian voters' disenchantment was compounded by their government's inability to counter Israel's unwillingness to negotiate a peace settlement while it unilaterally marked out its final borders inside the West Bank. Among other things, Palestinians are now looking to Hamas to get them a state.

Really interesting to look at this analysis in todays context.

Exactly. This is like saying Israelis deserve what they’re going through as they voted for a far right government who didn’t take the security seriously and there were some security gaps during 7-10. Citizens aren’t responsible of what their governments do, specially when most of the citizens haven’t elected them