Israel/Hamas War - Ceasefire

[Toggenburgsaregreat]

Each Saturday we are seeing demonstrations in London where people are marching with placards and calling for a ceasefire in the Hamas/Israel war.

However, it is difficult to know how the supporters of Palestine think this can be achieved? (Interestingly, no calls for Hamas to cease hostilities and return the hostages were heard - so is this really a call for unilateral disarmament?)

And who should Israel negotiate a ceasefire with? Hamas, ISIS, ISSP, The Muslim Brotherhood - all of these groups/any of these groups?

What is it the supporters of Palestine actually want?

@AdamRyan "In my opinion, Israel are applying very unfair pressure around that border because they want Gazans to flee the territory that way."

Really?

Egypt has already said they don't want Gazan refugees. They are too scared of importing Hamas.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/nov/02/why-egypt-has-not-fully-opened-its-gaza-border-for-fleeing-palestinians

To be fair just because Egypt won’t open the border doesn’t mean Israel didn’t hope they would. We’ve already seen that some members of Israel’s government are keen on “voluntary” migration.

Posters talk about the infantilising of Gazan's by saying Arab countries don't want them like they are naughty kids but are happy to do the same to Egypt.

They have suffered because of Hamas as have Jordan. They keep refugees as non citizens. They have made their feelings perfectly clear.

I know thar. I hear a lot of pro-Israeli government people saying that Gaza isn't under siege by Israel because of the border with Egypt and its not Israels problem that Egypt won't allow refugees out. Almost implying that Egypt is as culpable for Palestinian civilian deaths as they are. That to my mind is putting pressure on Egypt, but its not really warranted as Egypt is not in a position to absorb 2 million refugees. Its a poor country with its own social problems.

Also no countries want to take Palestinian refugees at the moment and despite how some people put it, I think that's more likely to be for practical reasons in that it doesn't look like they will ever be able to go back to Gaza so it will be a permanent resettlement and I think a lot of countries are nervous about supporting any perceived expulsion of Palestinians.

Every time I think about this I cannot see a way that the deaths of Gazans will stop until Netanyahu moves away from his "eliminate Hamas" rhetoric. And I can't see that happening unless the Israeli people start putting pressure on him to stop the war. Based on my limited view from posters on here, it seems like Israelis are largely behind him so that pressure isn't coming. So I can't see another answer that isn't the deaths of millions of people.

I find it heartbreaking and really hope I am wrong though. What a time to be alive.

Also no countries want to take Palestinian refugees at the moment and despite how some people put it, I think that's more likely to be for practical reasons in that it doesn't look like they will ever be able to go back to Gaza so it will be a permanent resettlement and I think a lot of countries are nervous about supporting any perceived expulsion of Palestinians.
Yes I would agree with that. It would be no small feat for any country to absorb the entire population of Gaza and they probably don’t want to enable their expulsion. So the threat of terrorism is not the only factor.

@AdamRyan "Every time I think about this I cannot see a way that the deaths of Gazans will stop until Netanyahu moves away from his "eliminate Hamas" rhetoric. And I can't see that happening unless the Israeli people start putting pressure on him to stop the war. Based on my limited view from posters on here, it seems like Israelis are largely behind him so that pressure isn't coming. So I can't see another answer that isn't the deaths of millions of people."

This conflict will not stop until Hamas is removed. Hamas will not stop until the State of Israel is removed. So there is an impasse.

Hamas has made it's aims very clear;

https://www.adl.org/resources/blog/hamas-its-own-words#:~:text=of%20the%20Jews.-,(Hamas%20Charter%2C%20Article%207).,Palestinian%20question%20except%20through%20Jihad.

@Toggenburgsaregreat

Sadly that is an accurate summary.

If there is no ceasefire then Palestinian civilians will continue to be killed by Israeli forces.

If there is a ceasefire then Israeli civilians will continue to be killed by Hamas.

Clearly the Israel would prefer that it is Palestinian civilians being killed rather than their own and clearly Gaza would prefer that it is Israeli civilians being killed and not their own.

@AdamRyan To continue... the only way forward I can see is what I mentioned earlier. Cut off Hamas' funding, supplies and support mechanism to degrade their ability to wage war.

This means putting more pressure on Iran, which acts as an ATM for Hamas (although they deny this.)
Iran is already creaking under sanctions, high unemployment and poverty. Protests against the strict theocratic regime are common with protesters being shot on the streets by government officials.
Is another revolution on the cards, I wonder?

Now Iran has attacked Pakistan, Iraq and Syria, yet says it doesn't want to get involved in a wider conflict ( ! )

Evidence has now come to light that Kim Jong Un has his 'finger in the pie'. It's all getting to look very messy and I can see 'tears at bedtime'.

https://www.jpost.com/israel-hamas-war/article-782496

That is hardly what the numbers say, though, is it?!

Going by "just cold hard figures", Palestinian civilians have been being killed at a higher rate than Israeli ones during any given year since 1948 - other, non-lethal harm not even being taken into account!

FWIW, that is how I personally ended up in the so-called "pro-Palestinian" camp: I used to date this half-Israeli bloke who kept on going on about "terrorists". And I went and looked up some numbers - because I believed him, by the way. It was just: the numbers didn't add up at all! A couple of weeks later, I found myself at my first Palestine Solidarity meeting!

You can twist and turn this whichever way you like - but: if one side always ends up being disproportionately killed, maimed, dispossessed, and imprisoned - without exception - then the question "are we the baddies?!" eventually sort of imposes itself!

Hamas is not the Palestinians. Hamas is a terrorist group. Israel is a state and should be acting more responsibly and humanely than terrorists.

The European Parliament passed a resolution stipulating that any call for a ceasefire in the Hamas-Israel war should be conditional on the dismantling of Hamas and the immediate and unconditional release of all the hostages.

Translation: "feel free to keep on mass murdering Palestinians,you genocidal bastards dear friends!"

The fucking EU knows exactly that, as a non-state actor, Hamas doesn't give a flying fuck, and also that it is utterly unlikely that the personally sanctioned Muhammad Deif was going to turn up to, say, Bucharest, as a guest of state any time soon.

They know equally as well that people like, say, president Herzog* are a lot more susceptible to such pressure!

• He was in (not EU) Switzerland today (and, for that matter: WELL DONE!!! to the Swiss activists who filed mass police reports under local "racial prejudice" legislation for his statement that there are no innocents in Gaza. He did not get arrested but, from what I understand, might not be back to Switzerland any time soon without at the very least having to undergo the hassle of seeking reassurances that he would not be, given multiple criminal complaints against him. Good job, Swiss activists!!!)

But, somewhat depressingly, the EU statement can be read as "we demand concessions from people over whom we have no leverage - and if they happen to comply, we might also have demands over people over whom we do".

This shit is sickening!

Quite. Not sure terrorists are going to listen to the EU, why would they, what is in it for them?
Hamas are awful but because they are a terrorist group and not a state its very hard for international groups to have leverage.
I heard this week even Iran might not have that much influence, similar to the US and Israel. Bankrolling doesn't necessarily equate to control.

@HeidiInTheBigCity

"You can twist and turn this whichever way you like - but: if one side always ends up being disproportionately killed, maimed, dispossessed, and imprisoned - without exception - then the question "are we the baddies?!" eventually sort of imposes itself!"

+++

If the metric on who are the baddies is based solely on the numbers being killed on each side then surely given that more Russians have been killed in the Ukraine conflict than Ukrainians that would make the Ukrainians the baddies.

Or if the metric was civilian deaths then more German civilians were killed in WW2 than British civilians that would make the British the baddies?

@AdamRyan

"Hamas is not the Palestinians. Hamas is a terrorist group. Israel is a state and should be acting more responsibly and humanely than terrorists."

+++

Hamas is the elected governing body of Gaza since 2006. It is a terrorist state rather than a terrorist group.

For example the IRA was a terrorist group based in Northern Ireland and ROI. It never governed those countries.

If it is correct to say that Hamas is not the Palestinians then it would be correct to say that the Nazis were not the Germans and that the Allies should not have waged a war on Germany.

How many ejections have there been since 2005? How many of the current population of Gaza actually voted for Hamas in 2006 keeping in Ming that 40% of the population are under 18?

*elections

@HeidiInTheBigCity

But, somewhat depressingly, the EU statement can be read as "we demand concessions from people over whom we have no leverage - and if they happen to comply, we might also have demands over people over whom we do".

+++

Sadly that is an accurate summary.

@kirinm

"
How many ejections have there been since 2005? How many of the current population of Gaza actually voted for Hamas in 2006 keeping in Ming that 40% of the population are under 18"

+++

We both know that once elected in 2006 Hamas have stopped any further elections and run Gaza as a dictatorship, very similar to how Hitler stopped further elections once democratically elected in 1933.

It is incredibly difficult to show what level of support there now is for Hamas in Gaza (it's not the easiest place to do a YouGov or Mori opinion poll right now).

Though based on a Reuters poll it would be fair to say that the majority of Palestinians support Hamas and support the attacks if 7th October:

www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/poll-shows-palestinians-back-oct-7-attack-israel-support-hamas-rises-2023-12-14/

After 20,000 + more killings, the realty is that support will grow. What are people expecting? For Palestinians to feel grateful when they're starving to death or watching their children die?

Nobody will ever know what support Hamas had pre 7/10.

Also that link doesn't work.

Gaza is not a state, so you are wrong to say that. If Gaza was a state then Israel could make a case for "regime change" in the way the US did in Iraq, for example. But it isn't.

Glad you corrected that seen as you also pointed out 40% of the population are under 18. I mean that is obviously a lot of ejections since 2005 😁

Though based on a Reuters poll it would be fair to say that the majority of Palestinians support Hamas and support the attacks if 7th October
The fact that recent events have seen support for Hamas rise rather than diminish is no real surprise :/

Nobody will ever know what support Hamas had pre 7/10.

https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/polls-show-majority-gazans-were-against-breaking-ceasefire-hamas-and-hezbollah