Hi freelance the way I understand it is that before ovulation your body is producing a hormone that is cool, hence the lower temps. After you ovulate your body produces another which is warm so you have a temperature rise and your temp stays high for around 2 weeks and then if you are not pregnant usually drops again just before you have your period.
Basically the answer to your question is yes ovulation happens just before the temp rise. Sometimes you see a temperature dip (an "ovulation dip") followed by the rise. This is why charting is not so good for telling you when you should be SWI, as it can only confirm that you have already ovulated after a 3 day temp rise. The best way I understand is to chart your cervical mucous as well and also maybe use OPKs - both of these will give you a "heads up" before ovulation then you can use the charting to check when it actually happened so you know when to test/expect AF.
If you have regular cycles you can compare several charts and see ovulation happening around the same time each cycle.
If you want to have a look at mine you are very welcome link is here and I think if you look up the thread a bit there will be a link to a "sister thread" with everyone's chart links in so you can stalk their's too 
So in answer to your second question, what we do now is keep taking the temps, and hope that they stay high 
A word of warning though, sometimes especially if you have a red dotted line indicating ovulation, FF will change its mind about when you ovulate so best to keep at the SWI (as much as you can ) just in case ovulation actually happens later that you expect. This happened to me 3 times last cycle!
Good luck, hope that all makes sense let me know if not...