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UK at war within 1000 days

385 replies

HumbleStumble · 25/10/2026 10:45

Wes Streeting has said Britain must be ready for war in 1,000 days. This combined with the advice to stockpile while you can is highly inflammatory and worrying. AIBU to think that if there is a specific threat he should be specific? If it's a nuclear threat then he should say. We are lucky to have access to what is effectively a bunker but what can you do if you live in a bedsit in the London borough of suburbia?

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PigletJohn · 25/10/2026 17:24

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 16:09

The decision to invoke Article 5 was taken without a US request to do so:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2001_NATO_Article_5_contingency

The decision to invoke NATO's collective self-defense provisions was undertaken at NATO's own initiative, without a request by the United States, and occurred despite the hesitation of Germany, Belgium, Norway, and the Netherlands.

Have you heard of Condeleeza Rice?

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/the-united-states-needs-its-friends/#:~:text=Early%20on%20September%2012%2C%20I,5%20defense%20commitment%20for%20the

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 17:33

dreamingbohemian · 25/10/2026 16:12

Great post!

The one thing I disagree on though is missile strikes and the UK having no deterrent. It does still have its nuclear deterrent and the likeliest scenario is ongoing/escalating attacks below the threshold of conventional warfare/Article 5. Russia could rather easily create havoc in the UK without any conventional strikes and without anything 100% attributable to it.

Putin has said the UK is Russia's #1 enemy in Europe. It's astounding to see people on here parroting Russian propaganda and doing their work for them.

Thanks, and fair point about the nuclear deterrent. The problem is that escalation to a nuclear attack should be the last option, not the first. It would be far better and safer for the UK to respond to a conventional attack by Russia with a proportionate conventional response, like sinking a few Russian warships.

The Russians might gamble that the UK would not respond to a conventional kinetic attack with a nuclear counterstrike, since it would almost certainly lead to a nuclear counterstrike against the UK.

This scenario is wargamed extensively by the military. Sky News did a podcast series about it that's worth a look.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLG8IrydigQfeg0mRrlniT36ia-tMD_vzb

Before you continue to YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLG8IrydigQfeg0mRrlniT36ia-tMD_vzb

Lovetogarden555 · 25/10/2026 17:36

Anything can happen between now and then, im.trying to focus on little things I can control, sewing projects, the garden, because otherwise I become overwhelmed with anxiety and will just hide and not do anything, so much is going on, so much negativity, so much hate, it's not being ignorant not watching the news constantly just trying to.protect myself mentally

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 17:43

I have indeed. In her public statement, she said the US did not request it. In her own words:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sUCXcYY3Clw

Before you continue to YouTube

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sUCXcYY3Clw

cardibach · 25/10/2026 17:50

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 17:43

I have indeed. In her public statement, she said the US did not request it. In her own words:

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/sUCXcYY3Clw

So your contention is that NATO coming to the aid of the US without a request is…what?
Surely it’s a better indication of being allies than having to be asked? But Trump is threatening NATO countries with attack. That’s not good, is it?

PigletJohn · 25/10/2026 17:52

Just canvassed for support, eh.

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 17:52

cardibach · 25/10/2026 17:50

So your contention is that NATO coming to the aid of the US without a request is…what?
Surely it’s a better indication of being allies than having to be asked? But Trump is threatening NATO countries with attack. That’s not good, is it?

My only contention was to refute the incorrect assertion you made that the US requested Article 5 action after 9/11.

ThePerfectStormBird · 25/10/2026 17:53

Labour have literally said there’s nothing in the bank for defence so it’s citizens are basically being told to Brace.

EmmaOfNormandy · 25/10/2026 18:17

ThePerfectStormBird · 25/10/2026 17:53

Labour have literally said there’s nothing in the bank for defence so it’s citizens are basically being told to Brace.

I can never get my bearings in this country. Where governments lie and never tell the truth and then in the same minute are read as gospel.

English is an odd language.Clearly it's not enough to just know about sheep and sheep.

PigletJohn · 25/10/2026 18:33

ThePerfectStormBird · 25/10/2026 17:53

Labour have literally said there’s nothing in the bank for defence so it’s citizens are basically being told to Brace.

Literally, you say? I didn't hear that. Can you link to the announcement?

dreamingbohemian · 25/10/2026 18:36

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 17:33

Thanks, and fair point about the nuclear deterrent. The problem is that escalation to a nuclear attack should be the last option, not the first. It would be far better and safer for the UK to respond to a conventional attack by Russia with a proportionate conventional response, like sinking a few Russian warships.

The Russians might gamble that the UK would not respond to a conventional kinetic attack with a nuclear counterstrike, since it would almost certainly lead to a nuclear counterstrike against the UK.

This scenario is wargamed extensively by the military. Sky News did a podcast series about it that's worth a look.

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLG8IrydigQfeg0mRrlniT36ia-tMD_vzb

No the UK would not respond to a conventional strike with a nuclear strike but it's so much farther up the escalation ladder that you have to be concerned about how quickly things could spiral to nuclear.

I think the worst Russia would do in the conventional domain is a large scale but not clearly attributable drone attack. It's not clear how the UK would respond to that.

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 18:41

PigletJohn · 25/10/2026 18:33

Literally, you say? I didn't hear that. Can you link to the announcement?

Healy has already announced 2 billion pounds in defense cuts.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/army-cuts-budget-boxer-vehicles-7zj7nfdnl

Verifying Device

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/defence/article/army-cuts-budget-boxer-vehicles-7zj7nfdnl

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/10/2026 18:41

Sugarleaf · 25/10/2026 11:44

Can you link this please I want to read it

I haven't got the direct link any more but Zelensky said so, a few days ago.

They've (Ukraine) been bombing data centres, but don't think it did any good to the bot farms.

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 18:49

dreamingbohemian · 25/10/2026 18:36

No the UK would not respond to a conventional strike with a nuclear strike but it's so much farther up the escalation ladder that you have to be concerned about how quickly things could spiral to nuclear.

I think the worst Russia would do in the conventional domain is a large scale but not clearly attributable drone attack. It's not clear how the UK would respond to that.

If the Russians wanted to provoke a conflict with the UK, their usual playbook would be to fabricate an attack by the UK on them in a so-called "false flag" operation. Their attack on the UK would then be framed as a justified retaliation.

The Sky News wargame podcast starts this way, with the Russians claiming and producing fabricated evidence of a British commando raid on a Russian naval base.

I don't think this is particularly likely, but I would have said the same thing in 2022 about Russia invading Ukraine. The point is that without a robust ability to respond at the bottom of the escalation ladder, it's more likely.

notimagain · 25/10/2026 19:09

It's going to be interesting to see what that's really all about - the Devil will be in the detail see my comment upthread about how some Governments have become quite imaginative in what they can suddenly claim can be put in the basket marked "defence spending.."

". with drone manufacturers and artificial intelligence companies among those expected to benefit"

If those drone manufacturers are actually going to be producing operational hardware PDQ (as.in next year) fair enough, if all the money is going to do is fund long term research then no thanks (similar with AI).

ATM,.right now, the forces are short of people and hardware ( for example state of the RN surface fleet is supposedly dire, the Boxer project just took a major hit)...spend to fix those issues, fast, only then think about spending on the longer term projects.

dreamingbohemian · 25/10/2026 19:14

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 18:49

If the Russians wanted to provoke a conflict with the UK, their usual playbook would be to fabricate an attack by the UK on them in a so-called "false flag" operation. Their attack on the UK would then be framed as a justified retaliation.

The Sky News wargame podcast starts this way, with the Russians claiming and producing fabricated evidence of a British commando raid on a Russian naval base.

I don't think this is particularly likely, but I would have said the same thing in 2022 about Russia invading Ukraine. The point is that without a robust ability to respond at the bottom of the escalation ladder, it's more likely.

That is a very silly scenario, which reduces the value of the whole wargame IMHO

I really don't think people should worry about Russia trying to provoke a conflict with us. They're more likely to just want us to disengage from Ukraine/Europe, attacking us even with fake justification does the opposite of that.

ExcitableCat · 25/10/2026 19:19

I think if we went to war, the war will initially be cyber. Cutting cables in the sea, tampering with fridges/freezers in shops/stock ordering systems. Banking. Problem weve found ourselves in is we rely on internet and digital far too much.

recent examples of shops in my local area closing because the fridges had been compromised. But imagine it happened to a massive food distribution centre. All that food ruined. I work for a tech firm and honestly, the threats are constant and clever

Pedallleur · 25/10/2026 19:21

ThePerfectStormBird · 25/10/2026 17:53

Labour have literally said there’s nothing in the bank for defence so it’s citizens are basically being told to Brace.

Do we get a tin hat each?

nevernotmaybe · 25/10/2026 19:44

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 14:48

The US pointing out that European NATO members underspend on defense goes back to JKF, and the reaction has always been to nod, smile, and ignore the issue. Very pointed warnings about this issue were given by the US Secretary of Defense in 2013:

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/text-of-speech-by-robert-gates-on-the-future-of-nato/

The whole thing is worth a read, but here's an excerpt:

With respect to Europe, for the better part of six decades there has been relatively little doubt or debate in the United States about the value and necessity of the transatlantic alliance. The benefits of a Europe whole, prosperous and free after being twice devastated by wars requiring American intervention was self evident. Thus, for most of the Cold War U.S. governments could justify defense investments and costly forward bases that made up roughly 50 percent of all NATO military spending. But some two decades after the collapse of the Berlin Wall, the U.S. share of NATO defense spending has now risen to more than 75 percent – at a time when politically painful budget and benefit cuts are being considered at home.

The blunt reality is that there will be dwindling appetite and patience in the U.S. Congress – and in the American body politic writ large – to expend increasingly precious funds on behalf of nations that are apparently unwilling to devote the necessary resources or make the necessary changes to be serious and capable partners in their own defense. Nations apparently willing and eager for American taxpayers to assume the growing security burden left by reductions in European defense budgets.

Indeed, if current trends in the decline of European defense capabilities are not halted and reversed, Future U.S. political leaders– those for whom the Cold War was not the formative experience that it was for me – may not consider the return on America’s investment in NATO worth the cost.

Not pulling any punches, was he? As usual, this was ignored, and here we are, 13 years later, with the prediction coming true.

I don't think the average Brit appreciates the cumulative effect decades of defense cuts have had on HM's forces. I'm a U.S. Army veteran, and I served alongside BA forces in Operation Granby in Iraq. Back then, the BA had about 150k active duty soldiers. It's now 72k, the lowest number since the 18th century. Your navy has gone from over 100 warships to 25. Of those, the five Astute-class fast attack submarines are in the dock for repairs because of a lack of maintenance funds. That's right, none are seaworthy. https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/uks-astute-class-submarines-totally-undetectable-at-sea-for-one-reason-ps-061126. Recall a few months ago when it took three weeks for the RN to deploy a single warship to the Med when the Iranians lobbed a missile at the RAF base on Crete.

As to all of the discussion about tanks, Russia has no desire to invade the UK. What they would absolutely love to do is get revenge on a country they view as a historical enemy and adversary by using missiles and drones to destroy high-value targets in the UK, like oil and gas infrastructure, ports, communications nodes, and airports. At present, the UK has very little to hit back with that would deter the Russians, other than its NATO membership. The UK has also become increasingly irrelevant in global security discussions because it has so little to contribute.

So I'm pleased that the topic of defense spending is being discussed, but I'm not hopeful anything meaningful will be done, as any attempts to moderate the growth in social spending have been politically untenable, and there's very little room to raise taxes or borrow more money from abroad.

Posting a quote showing someone that is including the peddling of objective propaganda nonsense about the US history, hardly then proves it has much value overall.

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 19:47

nevernotmaybe · 25/10/2026 19:44

Posting a quote showing someone that is including the peddling of objective propaganda nonsense about the US history, hardly then proves it has much value overall.

What specifically in Gates' speech was objective propaganda nonsense?

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 19:51

dreamingbohemian · 25/10/2026 19:14

That is a very silly scenario, which reduces the value of the whole wargame IMHO

I really don't think people should worry about Russia trying to provoke a conflict with us. They're more likely to just want us to disengage from Ukraine/Europe, attacking us even with fake justification does the opposite of that.

As I said, I thought it unlikely too, but wouldn't go as far as saying it was very silly. The Russians are unpredictable, and you have to plan for all sorts of unlikely events.

In military planning terms, it's called "honoring the threat", which means acknowledging and reacting to an enemy's potential or capability to do harm, rather than dismissing or underestimating it.

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 19:54

Pedallleur · 25/10/2026 19:21

Do we get a tin hat each?

The good ones are made of Kevlar these days. 😀

But they cost more than the tin ones, so you never know what you'll get.

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/10/2026 20:06

About Wes saying the threat will be in about three years' time.

It's not only him saying that. Rutte (NATO sec-general) and Pistorius (German Defence Minister) plus Poland's Donald Tusk and various other high- level defense people have said the same, in roughly the same time scale.

It's not to do with timing of elections, it's to do with the fact that Russia is actually stockpiling military materiel and drones, as well as using them in Ukraine now.

MissConductUS · 25/10/2026 20:10

ReleaseTheDucksOfWar · 25/10/2026 20:06

About Wes saying the threat will be in about three years' time.

It's not only him saying that. Rutte (NATO sec-general) and Pistorius (German Defence Minister) plus Poland's Donald Tusk and various other high- level defense people have said the same, in roughly the same time scale.

It's not to do with timing of elections, it's to do with the fact that Russia is actually stockpiling military materiel and drones, as well as using them in Ukraine now.

Correct. They are also expanding their military bases near NATO's borders.

https://defence24.com/geopolitics/russia-stockpiles-new-tanks-near-nato-preparing-for-another-war

Russia stockpiles new tanks near NATO. Preparing for another war?

**Russia is rebuilding its military capabilities while continuing its war against Ukraine. New satellite imagery shows Russian storage bases being replenished with T-90M tanks, armoured vehicles and artillery systems, including equipment that is not be...

https://defence24.com/geopolitics/russia-stockpiles-new-tanks-near-nato-preparing-for-another-war