I think there's a need here to understand how defence strategy has changed in the last two weeks.
The modern methods of warfare have changed with the Ukraine - Russia war.
The US model has been to spend big and have bigger bombs. This is being shown up by Iran as not being as effective as it was in the past with Iraq.
Afghanistan proved that the US couldnt win a war with ground troops due to the loss of soldiers being unacceptable to domestic politics interests.
The big bombs of the past aren't enough either. Iran planned strategically for years for this. They understood that they needed to create small military units that could function independently and we're not centralised.
We are also seeing a shift in strategic targets. Oil is the key here. Iran can survive an oil and price crisis better than the US because the public expectation is so much lower plus their economy was built around sanctions so it's localised and simple. The US economy has massive supply chains and complex logistics.
And drones. Drones are cheap compared to missiles. They are easier to construct. And they cause chaos.
The nuclear deterrent and the threat of missiles doesn't hold the same power. Using a nuke isn't really viable or if it is used it's self defeating.
The point is the fear of US military might is disappearing.
Worse, EU reliance on the support of the US military to protect them is evaporating because it's clear the US are already over stretched and don't have the stockpile to carry on a long war. And we don't have a strategy to protect against drones.
It's dawning that logistics and supply chains are the west's Achilles Heal. We are vulnerable to supply shock and our population has high demands for quality of life. We are highly dependent on technology and energy.
China and Russia will be watching this - they know that NATOs capacity to defend an article 5 violation is limited. Russia has been carrying out sabotage in Germany and the government has done very little - it's targeted airports and power stations. So far unsuccessfully. Politically getting NATO members to actually act is possibly going to be harder than it should be because everyone is so scared to actually act. Poland is recognising this and it's defensive strategy is now to say they will go it alone if they have to. Norway, Finland and Sweden are having a joint conversation on how much they can rely on others - they don't believe they will get the support they should if the moment comes.
The UK and France are talking to each other about defensive strategy in a way I haven't seen. The Macron / Burnham meeting was eye-opening. It's clear they are trying to put together something because they know they can't rely on the US.
Asymmetric warfare is what the British special forces excelled at. We aren't the best at it anymore.
Economically we are exposed. Our equipment is becoming essentially obsolete for warfare in 2026. Why would China need to use bombs when it could squeeze us through technology and economics. That's precisely the point of hybrid warfare.
Politically we are exposed. And militarily our defence partner is over stretched already.
If China wanted to take Taiwan tomorrow, there would be little the US could do effectively.
A lot of people are worried about WWIII. Others are saying it's already started, we just don't realise it yet. I don't know where I stand with this but I think we have a massive problem here and I think European Governments are starting to wake up to this new reality that frankly they are going to have to work their own shit out, without relying on the US and to be wary of even their European partners commitment to them.
In the midst of this you have the UK-Ukraine relationship. This isn't insignificant. It's about trying to hold UK and EU political defensive strategy together. They fight so we don't have to. Russia understands the logic in this too. This may change if Russia thinks that strategic sabotage might draw cracks and force domestic opinion to start to oppose support for Ukraine.
But yeah. Fear of NATO, of the US military and western economic power has disappeared and is now potentially a massive weakness that others can see ways to exploit.
That's why there's a drive to build up defence and recalling vets. Why we are being told to have supplies. Not necessarily because there's a clear threat. But because we aren't as protected as we were and because there needs to be a major overhaul in what our strategy actually is.
If I were China I'd be letting everyone else self implode precisely so I had to do fuck all but wait and then use economics and technology.