AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

You are inwardly focused on your company and outwardly focused on your competitors. You are not stepping back and looking at the health of the global economy or population. You are entirely focused on your own company's growth within its own marketplace.

Um climate change is a pretty big limitation don't you think?

Do you think we should stop building houses. Roads, factories, ports, railways, hospitals, wind turbine centres and so on…?

Because if you’re genuinely worried about climate change you should consider the CO2 emissions from global cement manufacturing long before you worry about electricity use of AI. Remembering that AI assistance is going to offer significant acceleration in solving for greenhouse emissions.

Im presenting a specific view in line with debates on job losses and ill thought through comparisons to the Great Depression.. I’ve shared how one organisation is operating in handling this perceived threat by adopting a growth position.

You cant equip for this at scale without understanding the predictions of economy, environment and technology in order to determine a trajectory to strategise for. Balanced against risk.

The same applies at home. How will you choose where and when and why you will allow AI capability into your home, your phone, your laptop, your central heating systems, your child’s education, your car and so on. Which AI agents will you use from which firms/ apps/ websites, for what purpose. What do you want for free or what are you willing to pay a subscription for.

You’ll be fundamentally asking the same questions I have, in order to make decisions based on your specific risks and beliefs.

The Bank of England report doesn’t discuss ‘viability of AI’, it questions adoption at scale and pace and the risks with over evaluation of AI assets, time for material adoption to occur and risks of increasing costs, amongst other things.

The Bank has in this release, specifically shifted its position to assuming AI will become a major economic force and is shifting its attention to ensuring that the financial system can remain resilient as adoption accelerates.

all very good stuff. This is what you want. To prevent your Great Depression.

I[m on record on here saying we should bring the million or so empty houses in England back into use before building new, so yes, we should.

The UK has a vacancy rate of only 4%, which is significantly lower than a healthy housing market needs. People renting in particular are massively disadvantaged by our low rate of empty housing.

The 1m figure is significantly over inflated. It includes properties under renovation, in probate, in between tenants. It’s more likely there are 250,000 to 300,000 genuinely vacant homes. That leaves us about 1m homes short based on current wait lists.

whilst I agree repurposing of genuinely ming term vacant homes should occur - most are privately owned, many already up for sale, how would you go about that? - it won’t touch the global cement manufacturing emissions of 7-8%.

AI is currently estimated to be generating 1-2% and we know this will increase as adoption accelerates. But given AI assistance will accelerate advances in reducing emissions overall it is predicted to be more than net neutral.

News outlets, charities and blogs piping on about AI as a disaster for climate change are really being a bit disingenuous. Everyone loves a headline.

Probably understated. There are huge numbers of empty premises above shops which aren’t counted as they’re no longer classed as habitable flats - high streets are full of them. Change of use to commercial done decades ago when the big names took over the high streets. Just look above your local shopping streets and even if the shop is still open and not derelict, chances are the upstairs are derelict or unused. These are generally converted eventually in uni cities for student flats but left empty for decades in other places ( or used for cannabis factories or mattresses on floors for modern slavery).

The stats include all residential dwellings.
The issue is that the location of the ‘long term vacant homes” doesn’t match the locations of social housing shortages, and they are generally privately owned.

The government can’t afford to buy up houses without economic growth even if they were in the right locations. Just as it struggles to build new affordable or social housing for the last 25 yrs.

there is a start up in Ireland who created robotic 3D building capability that reduces the emissions of building, and houses are built quicker and more cost effectively when it’s used. There are solutions available if we really want them.

though that has nothing to do with AI right now, for the government economic growth has to occur to
increase tax income in order to increase domestic investment (more demand more input) . Or the services it already provides have to be come more cost effective to run (more demand same or less input). AI will help with both.

Very Interesting report by BoE, as you say it’s what we need at this time to ensure this transition period is smooth for both business and banking. The biggest challenge will be keeping up with the pace of change, as the ability of AI tech increases so must the security upgrades. Andrew Bailey being keen to meet with Anthropic is a particularly strong signal institutions are wanting to get on board.

My point is that the "flats above shops" AREN'T included in the stats as they aren't officially "Homes" anymore as the planning/use will have changed over the decades when people stopped "living above the shop" and the big chains moved in. They'd have done change of use to avoid domestic council tax at the very least, and tended to use the "old" flat for staff room, storage, etc.

Just been doing once such case - a four story "High Street" shop where the top 3 floors were derelict. The owner had been there for decades firstly as a TV rental shop and then as a TV repair/electrical shop. No one ever lived "upstairs" during his decades of ownership - it was just a dumping ground for old TVs, old videos, etc., that he kept for spare parts! The entire building was classed as commercial for non domestic business rates. There were still beds, wardrobes, etc on the top floor (obviously manky!) as he never "needed" to go up there as he could put all his clutter from the business on the first 2 floors!

My first job as an accountant was in a similar building, again 4 floors, used to be a High Street shop, converted into an office, but they only needed the ground floor and first floor. The 2nd and 3rd floors were likewise left pretty much untouched from their days as bedrooms, again, beds, wardrobes, book-cases, old clothes, etc. Again, all classed as commercial for rates, so again, wouldn't have been included in the statistics for "unoccupied" homes. We used a couple of rooms on the 3rd floor to store old files, but barely ventured to the top floor.

Such places are problematic because often there is no "separate" entrance to the upstairs, so virtually impossible to insure as separate dwellings as access would be required through the ground floor "shop" or office. Secondly the staircases are often too steep or too narrow to pass modern building regulations if the owner wanted to go for change of use back to domestic dwelling. It's why it's so common/popular to convert them to student flats in Uni cities as they usually "knock through" several properties to make it viable to build new stairways and access to the street without going through the ground floor shop, or even more common is to "sacrifice" one shop front to make it the entrance hall for the properties above shops on each side.

His meeting is about the dangers that A.I poses to the banking system. We cant keep up with security upgrades because tech moves faster than people. Institutions are "getting on board" because doing nothing is a death sentence. And of course investors are going to say "praise be the great A.I revolution" they have bet their farm on it. It's not possible for an orderly, exponential growth across the whole economy.

There isnt enough money in the system or customers to buy the product. It would be like everyone standing up in the cinema at the same time and hoping for a better view. They will just block eachothers view. So while you seem to think the great A.I utopia will save us and make us all rich.

There isn't, I don't think any historical precedent of any technological revolution making all people richer and better off in a fair and orderly manner. The first 60 years of the Industrial Revolution saw wages drop for the average worker and conditions deteriorate. The rich got richer, but the poor became all but destitute.

Look at the "Internet Revolution". It "increased productivity" but at the same time it hollowed out huge sections of the economy. It destroyed the photographer, newspaper, magazine, travel and music industries. Some took decades to recover, others never came back. It centralised wealth into a handful of tech monopolies, hello Amazon!

The "great A.I revolution" wont be any different. The "average person" will face stagnating wages, unemployment, and a much lower standard of living. We are already seeing this.

You’re wasting your time. OP will just come back saying “I’m quietly confident governments will take action.” And then some twaddle about how much time for hobbies we’re all going to have

Hard core capitalists don't care if their particular business model creates chaos and havoc to other businesses, let alone society.

Been thinking about this thread quite a bit. Those of you who know more than me, and are optimistic that we can all retrain and still be employable if we're strategic, could I pick your brains? Do you have any advice for someone in my situation:
Age 57, so no point investing in a long or expensive course for retraining
Currently working full time plus, wfh, freelance, as a writer in a niche field of educational publishing.
It's increasingly hard to get work, and hourly rate is a third of what it was a few years ago, if that, because internet and AI have slashed clients' profits.
Current clients refuse to let me use AI in my work, so I can't really get ahead of the curve there. I did a short course on using AI in my industry a year ago, but I've not been able to put it into practice and I expect things have moved on since then anyway.
I have excellent writing skills, attention to detail, research skills, ability to learn and analyse languages, and can summarise complicated information in simple language
A good team player.
Was once excellent at maths but haven't used that side of my brain for ages.
Not very organised, and managing other people stresses me out - I am NOT a natural project manager or teacher.
Things like trying to make my phone receive my emails can reduce me to tears - I'm not a good tech problem solver. However, I LOVED creating animations and games with my kids in Scratch.
-couldn't work a standard 9-5 away from home due to a needy dog.

What sort of future-proof role/industry could I be aiming for?
Salary doesn't have to be particularly high, but I'm not going to work for less than minimum wage (which rules out most of the jobs currently on offer in my industry)
Currently my only idea is a care worker who visits elderly people in their homes, but other ideas would be very welcome.

I would suggest you make a start by downloading ChatGPT if you haven’t already, and copy your post from here into there and read the suggestions it gives you.

There are many you could ponder on, then perhaps come back here with the ones that most interest you?

I would first of all start familiarising yourself with basic A.I. skills, ChatGPT is a great entry level product that is very user friendly and understandable. An hour or so of using it and you may be surprised how intuitive it is. Your experience and skillset is a perfect example to be leveraging AI to your advantage especially if you specialise in a niche field.

Your current clients may not approve of A.I. but maybe new clients would? I think it’s important to distinguish between having A.I. create your work entirely and using it to make your work better, getting ahead of the game is vital unless you really want to leave your field for that career change.

I've been using ChatGPT since it first came out. I'm not avoiding it. I use it to help me learn a language, for example - thereby taking away my custom from a language teacher. I'd probably prefer to learn with a teacher, but don't have the budget due to loss of my own work. This kind of thing will be repeated ad infinitum. OP is ever the optimist, but the maths doesn't work for everyone staying in the jobs that they're currently doing.

@StraightTalkingTina Brainstorming with ChatGPT was a good suggestion, actually. Thank you! A lot to get my head around from the suggestions that it came up with.

• Bid writing for charities. Interestingly this is something that someone in my industry also suggested. Not sure there'd be much money in it, but it's something I could start on a voluntary basis and take from there. But won't this also be work that will soon disappear to AI?
• AI quality reviewer. Don't think so, thanks. Not interested in the 'If you can't beat 'em, join 'em' approach quite yet.
• Prompt writer / conversation designer. Kind of the same problem, as it's taking away customer service roles. But might appeal, I guess, and would probably fit my brain quite well. Not sure how you'd start at my age though.
• Content designer: ChatGPT says 'They don't just write. They analyse what users need, simplify information, structure journeys, and make services easier to use.' This is something I wondered about in the past. Sounds like something I could do pretty well, but again, how to get into it?

Any more advice very welcome.

Proof reading for a publisher? Needs good attention to detail which you say you have. I know someone who does it and she works from home. She might be self employed rather than directly employed, not sure.

Because companies will do anything and everything they can to maximise profits. They’re not going to see themselves as some sort of charitable organisation paying people a full time wage for not working full time.

Yes indeed, fits my skill set very well! I did it for years, and still work with the same clients but in more of a writing role. I don't see it as any more future-proof than my own role, unfortunately. Most editors in my area of publishing are struggling to find enough work.

In today’s ‘work place norms’ context that rings true, though once it becomes apparent across many businesses that productivity is actually better whilst working fewer hours, the shorter work week will become more popular and widely accepted.

You have to be trolling at this point

I don't know if you're naive or deluded or a Labour politician. A shorter working week will always mean lower pay in most commercial businesses.