AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

Which post exactly are you referring to where I say I’m excited about social unrest?

Because I’ve been saying enthusiastically that Im super excited at the prospect of incredible medical advances in a short space of time, domestic robots excites me, a 3 day work week excites me, breakthroughs in physics and biology make me hopeful for a better future.

What a totally ridiculous comment. Those against AI are going to be those most likely to have their jobs affected by it - who they vote for and whether this will be Reform is pretty much irrelevant.

Look next time it might be easier for you to simply state that you dislike Reform and dislike the people who intend to vote for Reform.

It's optimistic because you have ignored and completely avoided addressing the reality of what will really happen. You have yet to back up any of your optimistic claims with real solutions on how to avoid mass unemployment and misery for millions.

Saying 'everything will work out somehow, governments will suddenly become magical, altruistic entities and all the problems will just disappear won't it be wonderful' is not a great discussion. It makes you look ill-informed about how the world works.

Have you not used it for financial modelling, cash flow, budgeting, trend analysis, process documentation?

Extremely good for all of the above.

The Large Language Model you're talking about isn't A.I.

I'm not really bothered, I'm retired so no job to worry about and will be dead soon so doesn't really affect me apart from a bit more computer says no.

The impact on society will be immense there’s no denying that, but I choose to believe we will prevail and adapt rather quickly. Call it naivety or blind faith but that’s my position, yes society will look different in 10 years and I’m hedging my bets on us being in a good place.

The nitty gritty of that will boil down to how quickly government reacts and supports its people to transition to a new way of doing things, I have no hand in that so I must trust whoever is in Number 10 at that time to do the right thing for all those who may need help.

At the moment the UK has an approximated 1:1 ratio of jobs lost from AI versus jobs created. The only challenge is that the skills are different so many of those losing jobs don’t have the skills and likely would never achieve the skills required to do the new jobs.

the government are looking at an automation tax on companies or lay off due to AI so that investment in new skills can be achieved.

however AI also makes more advanced roles more accessible by managing complexities we may have previously considered specialist. This will also open doors for people with lowee or different skills to access different types of work.

It’s not the first time we’ve been through this. Online retail capability closed shopfronts and retail staff lost jobs but new supply chain jobs were created as a result.

It will be different for every industry with varying degrees of impact, but it’s not correct to say AI
isnt creating jobs. 68000 in the UK alone this half year.

But how do you imagine they do that? I'm asking YOU for any inkling on which you've based all this clap-trap but all you can do is say the government will 'deal' with the nitty gritty! They don't have the resources but you seem to be thinking they'll magic it up from somewhere? Not just our government but every government in the world!

How often have you seen our government move quickly on anything, especially on such a national scale? How often has it been sustainable and ongoing? Where will all this money come from to dole it out to everyone for free housing and food?

Saying the prime minister will 'sort it out' is such a lame argument.

I've no doubt some people will be in a 'good place' in 10 years. But the millions of people who won't are the ones you are just pretending don't exist. Perhaps you'll hoping they'll just die and then the entrepreneurs can be free to get on with it?

I believe JM Keynes predicted back in the early 20th century that we would all just be working a 3 day week by the latter part of the century on the basis that all the work could be done more quickly now and people would have more leisure time.

But capitalism does not allow for leisure so here we are, most of us still working long hours (due to eye-watering housing costs, cars [necessary to get to your job due to poor provision of public transport], rising food costs).

Don't kid yourself for a second that AI will benefit everyone or that capitalism will allow it. The invention of the washing machine allowed the advertisers to push the notion that clothes should be washed more frequently. So you're still stuck doing laundry a lot of the time.

Interestingly, Neolithic Skara Brae managed a 3 day week but they could build their own houses, could secure their food supplies on foot and were not selling their wage labour.

This is how you skip over the environmental concerns? You are utterly, utterly deluded.

I have had to embrace AI at work and yes, for some things it is incredible and because I already have an understanding, it augments it and I have really enjoyed boosted learning. At the moment it is a loss leader... It is free until it has outgunned human effort, once the humans redundant and skills lost, it will charge in an anti-competitive market.

You mention am I not excited about education - no. So relieved my kids got through school before they had to contend with that moral maze as well as the totally morally bankrupt and ill thought out era of smart phone introduction. The fact it has taken so long for the UK to even try to implement some sort of safeguarding for our children is very telling and does not bode well for the morality and governance of AI. Very worried about their investment in Uni. Wondering if this like enlightenment before the dark ages. Can see it cleaving society even further into the 'haves' and 'have nots' because this is driven on capitalism and the only thing that scares me more is communism, both if which are being blythly proposed.

You mention am I not excited by us all having next to nothing to do... No!!! ... everyone needs purpose. Where you get lots of people unoccupied there is unrest and unhappiness. Most of depression is driven by a lack of purpose and feelings of powerlessness - it is a recipe for disaster which I'm sure big pharma will love.

You mention aren't Tesla amazing... Things are so over engineered with built in redundancy now, no I'm not excited. Am I excited by driverless cars... No, I actually really enjoy driving.

If AI can solve Parkinsons, Dementia, Arthritis etc Yes - that is truly wonderful and it may actually happen - that bit I am hopeful.

But our greatest threat to the quality of human life lies in the protection and wise use of resources. The air we breath, the water we drink, global temperatures. If it can solve global warming and help us produce renewables, solve pollution, help nature flourish, feed everyone with fresh produce, give everyone meaningful purpose in life, strong relationships and human connection, stop conflict and war... Then yes it would be fantastic... But very sadly I think we are set to squander resources on AI in an unprecedented and uncontrolled fashion and it will achieve the antithesis of these things.

When we get the AI fuelled three day week, who is going to staff all these leisure facilities where we’ll spend all our time. Yep, ordinary workers. The 3 and 4 day week is a middle-class luxury.

It’s a good point. If demand for leisure facilities increases, so do the jobs required.

You can still work a 3 day week in a leisure, lots of people work part time today in hotels, gyms, leisure centres, hairdressers, holiday resorts.

This would be one area where lower skilled work will flourish.

This would be one area where lower skilled work will flourish.

Oh, like checkout jobs have flourished? There are already automated hotels. I'm sure housekeeping and catering are still human - for now - but let's not kid ourselves that any corporation's going to value human workers, with all their welfare needs and unpredictability, over an array of beeping machines.

So we have the middle classes / professionals working three day weeks and wanting to fill their leisure time with fun activities staffed by the lower skilled, also working a three day week.

But we're back to economics. If the basic costs of living keep rising, will the three day jobs pay enough to cover that? People are paid for either their time at an hourly rate, their skills at a fixed salary, possibly for measured productivity.

We live in a capitalist model driven by the concept of continuous growth and chasing as much profit as possible. We already have to supplement people's income from state coffers to maintain the current system and still the wheels are falling off the economic bus.

So a complete restructuring would be needed globally. You might say that's great, we just get governments to redistribute money, provide housing and all other amenities apparently - but that's just the other side of the coin. If everything you depend on for survival is state provided then it is also state controlled and so are you.

Currently we have a situation where the illusion of economic progression is being shown to be just that, yet still it is hammered into us "just work hard" "just live within your means" "be more resilient - your mindset is the only thing holding you back". People are beginning to feel institutionally gas-lit, and I truly believe the cognitive dissonance being generated is creating quite understandable neurosis in many (holds up own hand).

Everything about modern life is over-complicated, largely due to the tech forced upon us in the guise of making it simpler. Currently one can somewhat choose to avoid apps and not directly engage with AI, but it is being forced on us. Every google search throws up an AI response first - I don't want that. Google worked fine for me before that. Recently I was engaged with mental health services for bereavement reasons - therapist very lovely, but no, I don't want apps to support me, my big problem is isolation and lack of confidence - I need people, not automata. I'm sure it has been noted on file that I am reluctant to engage - but it's the tech I'm rejecting, and if that's the only support available, I'll muddle through alone thanks.

This is such a big picture issue and it's an experiment with too many variables to predict or mitigate for outcomes that could easily go horribly wrong. Which is why I find it terrifying that so many people seem oblivious, as long as Claude can stroke their egos and do their colours.

They’re overwhelmingly self service even now aren't they? It’s the low wage jobs that have been automated for the last decade

@StraightTalkingTina

"It’s not the first time we’ve been through this. Online retail capability closed shopfronts and retail staff lost jobs but new supply chain jobs were created as a result."

Yep, small business owners, shop staff who knew their customers, bustling high streets - replaced by "self-employed" Amazon delivery drivers (who will all be replaced as soon as autonomous delivery vehicles are good enough to replace them), warehouse workers treated like indentured workers (who will all be laid off as soon as robotics are good enough to replace them), and vape shops. A remarkable improvement.

Robots, mostly.

Try using it to prepare spreadsheets with raw data. It can do all the formulas, etc.
Try taking a screenshot of a spreadsheet that you have a problem with and asking it to troubleshoot it. (Actually just uploading the file would probably be more efficient, but it's interesting to see how much it can do with a screenshot.)
It can also help you to create Power Automate flows which can significantly reduce repetitive tasks.
Having said that, the basic Copilot is a bit lame compared to e.g. Claude.

Accounting is one of the professions which will be the most quickly affected by AI because it's all about numbers and very manipulable by code.

It's also important to realize that AI will not necessarily be replacing jobs, but it will replace the need for people to do specific tasks. (In practice, this will mean that one person can do the job of one or more people who have the same role.)

No. All those previous roles you mentioned needed people to do them. A.I takes the person out of the equation. The horse didn't retrain to become a mechanic. They were made economically irrelevant. In the A.I sphere, we are the horse.

A few people said similar early on. maybe people don’t massively understand what different accounts do.

the sort of reporting you’ve suggested has been automated for a long time.

if it’s done its also junior work- I don’t input into spreadsheets and haven’t for 20 years

My 7-year old just asked AI to make a pictogram with 3 butterflies, 2 snails, 3 lady birds and 63 ants. The chart is beautiful - as are the 65 ants it very confidently displayed.

I wouldn't use it on that mega account without caution just yet.

The robots will be staffing places like that

I’d say we’re more the horse riders who became car drivers which led to roads and highways being leveraged, the car connected society in ways horses could not.

There are currently 3.5 million people employed in hospitality and leisure.

Where are you getting 3.5 million robots in short order than can replicate perfectly the tasks performed by human hospitality and leisure staff?

Where, for example, are you getting robots to undertake lifeguarding duties at public swimming pools?

What’s your timescale for all this?