AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

Yep they certainly have - the days of breathless AI boosterism are long behind us - it's all tokenomics and deep cynicism about the fundamental economics of the industry now. OpenAI and Anthropic are on borrowed time and everyone knows it. Sooner or later Microsoft and Amazon will pull the plug. With a bit of luck Oracle (one of the world's worst companies) will get taken out in the crossfire.

This is exactly the point, it’s such a short-term view of cost (which makes sense as the current CEOs will be long gone by then). But once the true cost becomes truly clear - especially to governments - then the row back will begin.

While unemployment is low sure when AI causes mass unemployment what makes you think elites will want to keep billions of useless eaters around? They will have no purpose for us

I wonder how much disruption will occur before we reach that point though. And how long the tweaking round the edges and heel digging in will last, and at what political / economic cost?

The real money isn’t in the AI it’s in the associated products built around it, hardware, chips, data storage, robotics, pharmaceuticals. The first company to cure Alzheimer’s or arthritis from AI will repeat the success of Eli Lilly with Mounjaro, it’s why Anthropic is making moves into bioscience.

It’s no different to saying there wasn’t any money in the internet as an entity, the true wealth and abundance came from business on websites, smartphones and apps. The economics of AI will be from leveraging the compute ability into products that are scaleable, AI is the fuel for what comes next.

The internet, email and mobile phones?

I couldn’t understand that either! Are you using 2 types of thread or one?

if you put rubbish in, you’ll get rubbish out. You have to be very specific with AI inputting.

Those aren’t percentages.

Oh don’t get me wrong, it will be terrible for a while, but the row back won’t be far behind.

I work in an AI industry. We’re fucked. There’s a reason whistle blowers are leaving AI tech and warning everyone about it, and it’s not because of the job losses.

Is it because the bubble is bursting already do you think? Or other reasons?

Which industry exactly?

You think the government will step up and save us all from an economic crisis of unprecedented and epic proportions? Are you off your head? The government will do what they always do: line up to get donations from Big Tech, push through data centres that trash the environment in return, and then claim they can’t do anything to help the regular person while pumping all our tax revenues into failing AI schemes to replace the public sector with bots, which will be incredibly expensive and yet outdated before they ever launch. Somehow the money used to pay for them will end up in the pockets of their contractors and not in tax revenues to pay for UBI nor anything else. Have you already forgotten austerity? Slash everything, cut jobs, freeze tax thresholds - all to bail out the banks while the general public gets poorer and political cronies get richer.

If a significant chunk of the workforce was out of work (10+ million) the government would have no choice but to offer financial support, when this scales across all countries in the world there would have to be a complete rethink of the economic world order otherwise society would simply collapse, everything falls apart.

We live in a democracy, the next 2029 General Election will see AI promises listed in all manifestos because by that point the numbers will be unavoidable.

I've just watched a lecture by Yuval Noah Harari titled "AI has hacked the code of human civilisation".

Found it very interesting on both practical and philosophical fronts if anyone is intetested. It's on his YouTube channel.

I'd be more enthusiastic about AI were it not in the hands of a bunch of total sociopaths. It's all very well saying 'This could mean a shorter working week/no one having to work' Musk and co, but it's kind of up to you to make that happen? If legislation comes, are you willing to pay a massive dividend of your profits to actually keep people alive (and consuming) or will you use loopholes and take it all yourselves and then blame everyone else for being losers because they're not billionaires? Are you willing to have people you don't think 'deserve it' have some of 'your' money? I doubt it.

I mean, that's assuming it can ever really make a profit, because at the moment it's not looking healthy on the returns front.

They can discuss it all they want - I asked when the free accommodation, healthcare, subsidisation will actually, tangibly happen. And what will happen in the interim between now and then?

Do you understand US politics at all?

I do actually and that’s why I am confident addressing AI will be a key focus of the winning candidate. The election cycle goes full throttle next year just as AI starts to impact the jobs market in a noticeable way, it will be a hot topic.

As for UBI and when that is specifically expected to start is anyone’s guess, the UK is significantly behind when it comes to our homegrown AI ventures so we’re not going to be nationalising multi trillion pound companies anytime soon. But the impact from AI will be felt in a couple of years.

Addressing potentially significant levels of unemployment and sports of unrest would be an unenviable task for any sitting PM. It won’t be a case of us opting out of the AI race, nations who aren’t early adopters or striving to keep up will be viewed as poor investments so corporations will move elsewhere, government will have no choice in the matter, their hand likely forced just as it was in Covid with furlough.

They don't have the money or the infrastructure. It will impact the job market, yes. But there's no immediate - or even medium-term solution. You wax lyrical about how it will all be so wonderful but yourr answers are very vague when you're pressed about what, actually, the governments will do. 'They'll discuss it', 'in a few years, 'maybe this and maybe that'. You have no answers, just as the governments don't.

Quite often I’ve found that those against AI (replacing jobs) will be right wing in their political leaning. Particularly Reform supporters

I don't think you understand what A.I is. It isn't Chat GPT. There wont be any new jobs.

Well you couldn't be more wrong in my case. But it's interesting you making this an identity politics issue, as opposed to feasibility and consequential. AI is probably the best tool for fascistic leaning regimes in existence in terms of control, surveillance and influence.

In my job (freelance copywriter and news editor), literally every other press release or PR i edit about the comms industry waxes lyrical about how prolific AI usage will be, and it is a boon to the top companies in the sector etc. If these companies don't want to use AI or incorporate it somewhere into their working practices, supposedly, the businesses won't be as productive/profitable etc.

So apparently it's not just a phase 🤔 Obviously I'm just speaking for one sector, so I am prepared to stand corrected 😅😬😅

“This thing will cause significant levels of unemployment and social unrest. However, I’m excited about it.”

Why are you excited? Oh because Governments will “have to” introduce some kind of mitigations apparently, and this is reassurance enough (despite literally no historical precedent, and a great deal
of precedent to the contrary).

You can see why none of this quite rings true, right?

I’ve started a thread on Mumsnet about focusing on the positives of AI, I’m not claiming to be some oracle with all the answers. Of course it’s going to be difficult navigating a new world order, but the challenges aside I think there’s plenty to be optimistic about. Ask your MP what the plan is.