AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

Yes, exactly as I said. New skills for new roles.

As a pp said, increasing in non AI roles is also viable, if demand in non AI/ human driven services increases due to efficiencies from the workplace or at home.

its a transition, not an extinction.

IF A.I displaces a job, then it can also do the new role that emerges from the efficiency gain. What human driven services are you referring to?

I work in the finance department of a large multinational corporation and I see how decisions are made. Staff costs are in most cases the largest cost group and companies cannot wait to be able to lay off as many people as possible. Executive bonus revolves around EBITDA targets and the easiest way to reach them is to cut costs (even if long term performance is harmed as a result - they by no means always follow logic).

Mass unemployment is inevitable. Entry level office jobs will go first, causing huge graduate unemployment. My first job after uni was raising invoices - this will be fully automated soon and there will be very high barriers to entry to professional jobs like accounting. Only jobs which require decision making will remain. Robots will automate manual labour as well - there are already warehouses where they don't even put the lights on because no humans work there anymore. There is a reason why Amazon invests in their AI research so heavily - robots are cheaper than humans.

AI entrepreneurs have been talking about universal basic income for years. This is how it might work in well functioning countries - most people will have universal basic income and will be idle. Not great for your self esteem or motivation.

Third world countries will suffer. Eg there is a lot of office work outsourced to India, Bangladesh etc - all of this will be soon automated by AI so those offices will close down and those countries will lose all that foreign capital. Manufacturing will be done by robots which might mean that it won't have to be done in third world anymore to save costs. US looks like it's in decline but actually their AI will give them huge advantage over others.

What I fear the most is the difficult transition period where we have mass unemployment but no universal basic income yet. It all depends on governments finding effective solutions and implementing them on time so we don't suffer. Another issue is how to force companies to pay higher tax which will be needed for universal basic income payments? We'll lose most of the employee tax and NI contributions and will need to find the budget to pay millions to not work. It will be very tricky.

I can't say I'm too excited about this. The chaos we might experience may outweigh the benefits of eg AI powered medicine. People are driven by greed and we might end up in a world with huge income inequality and the majority of people living in extreme poverty.

AI can fuck off. Destructive extractive technology used for evil while the world burns.

Well exactly... Who's going to be paying the tax to pay for UBI? We can't afford the welfare bill as is.

Plus, have you not read "If anyone builds it, everyone dies"?

I'm an academic and while I see AI is going to make great strides in knowledge, I am also worried it hinges on the academic promotion model. I think we are already seeing generated papers and possibly generated made up data being used in prestigious academic outlets. If academics continue to get tenure on publications alone then of course the less ethical will cut corners to attain it. And then what happens when we have a decade of cancer research that was actually a load of bollocks because it was all generated from thin air amongst research groups?

Hairdressees, Fitness coaches, restaurants and cafes, tourism and hospitality, social and community centres, tattoo artists, trades, Live music and so on.

A clear pattern from previous waves of automation is that as routine work becomes cheaper, people often spend a greater share of their income on services. Many economists expect AI to accelerate that trend, making the UK economy more service-oriented.

Again... Who will be able to afford to pay for all that if jobs disappear?

Bartering. A hair cut for a song.

And how will people pay for housing, food, clothing, healthcare?

I work in Financial Services and it will definitely hit jobs in this sector. I think our company could probably cut 10% off the wage bill within 3 years the speed it is going. Why wouldn’t they do that when profit is the only driving factor of the Private Equity Owners.

We've already seen "made up" court cases in tax tribunals/courts! Thankfully, it was spotted, but it's very worrying. It's not clear, not been admitted, whether the taxpayer deliberately made up tax case precedent to suit their defence or whether they were "innocent" of AI hallucinations. Just another reason why it WILL need to be managed and monitored by people who are experienced/qualified to spot whatever mistakes are made by it.

And where are the customers of those businesses going to get money to pay for those services if they are unemployed due to the utility of A.I.

You can't remove jobs and magic up invisible money into the economy without catastrophic consequences. Remember, the great depression in the US was on the back of a 25% unemployment rate. If we lost just 25% to 30% of jobs to A.I then the economy literally stops working.

I am sure that you will not you lose your job, but as you say the entry level jobs will be less needed and therefore you will find that you do not need to employ so many people.

Because the unemployed get re-employed in equivalent skilled work when demand increases.

some unemployed could get employed in more financially rewarding positions, because they embrace upsing and AI reduces complexity so the job less unreachable than before.

and the 68000 new jobs created this half year alone creating mobility in a workforce that has been stagnant since Covid. nobody getting pay rises accept a base 2-3% against double inflation levels.

demand forces skills creation. Skills creation enables a mobile workforce. Mobility and skills generate new opportunities and income streams and delivers economic growth.

I suspect the bastard ai bro’s will
keep all the cash with the rest scrabbling about for scraps. There will prob be war or at least civil war.
what fun

I'm sure PPs have cited this but what about AI's inaccuracies?
AI gleans knowledge like the fringe kid picks up gossip from the in crowd.

Are you willing for the collective 'information' of the internet to rule your life?
The top skill is knowing the subject but AI does not even know the facts. Remember how Google is useful but you have to sort through the links... AI no better.

AI gives the 'most probable answer' but that is not necessarily the correct one. It still needs someone with subject knowledge to review its 'answer'. It cannot do maths; it cannot do science; it cannot do any non-English language (I have tested it in Latin, Greek and French).

Ultimately, humans need humans.

This is far too simplistic (and outdated now). Some of the latest AI reasoning models certainly solve maths problems at elite level (moving quite recently from high school maths to solving previously unsolved problems - creatively - not through sheer volume or compute power). Same for scientific breakthroughs (genomic research for example). These have the potential to enhance human endeavours enormously.. if used for that end.

It seems that the public are still stuck on the “these models just predict the next likely word” simple LLMs, not realising that that is now basic AI. Reasoning models analyse, critique and evaluate. Agentic autonomously models decide how to achieve a set objective. Things are evolving…fast

Which the A.I can do. Where is this demand going to come from? You haven't explained where these jobs will come from. Put simply. If A.I can do your job, then any additional work you leverage can also be done using A.I. why would a business pay a person to do a job thay A.I can do more efficiently and for 15% of the cost of a human workers.

This is the paradox that A.I evangelical preachers can't explain..

Exactly this.

It’s interesting reading some of the responses on the thread because you quickly realise that the general public’s perception of AI is their ad-hoc experience of ChatGPT or seeing naff AI slop events flyers on FB groups.

Most people have very little idea just how advanced agentic AI is now and what it is truly capable of.

Nope - AI will take my transcription job - I am not happy about it !!

So this idea that AI will free us to work fewer hours for the same money...

There's a real-life example of an attempt by workers to ensure this. Shall we see how it goes?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd95wendvdeo

I have explained it.

Tell me how will AI be my hairdresser?

AI won’t replace my job nor that of the 350 people employ. I expect I’ll need to recruit.

Technology has never been the cause of mass unemployment. Your likening to the US Great Depression is exaggerated and alarmist.

Role displacement, yes. but has always created new work and new industries too. The challenge is skills transition from old to new.

i agree with recent poster. Most people don’t actually understand the capabilities of AI and the opportunities it will bring because they’ve bought into the negative press and stopped exploring beyond free chat GPT.

And that is exactly the point that AI will replace them. If you aren’t using it to enhance you’re job, you’re not advancing at all - and it will replace you.

Not necessarily.

have you explored the human interactions required with AI for transcription services and how your role should evolve to meet those new needs?

AI has been in development and used in some form for 50 yrs. None of what you say has or will happen simply because of its existence.