AI over the next few years

[Nutmuncher]

I’ve recently shifted my reading content from war, doom scrolling and political madness towards being positive for the next few years, mainly scientific breakthroughs and technological advances from AI. There’s so much to be excited about (aside from the inescapable dose of fear and nerves of war doom climate doom and politics) and I think it’s something MN should be talking about more.

AI is coming whether we like it or not, it’s going to bring with it a seismic shift for the world that’s going to be incredible but also bring with it a tricky societal transition that will impact us all in some way, jobs will change, industry will evolve, the human touch will become increasingly important. How easily we transition to that new world is another story, how will those who don’t use devices or aren’t technology native actually navigate a more connected world? The economic implications if entire industries go or certain careers are no longer needed could be catastrophic if not managed properly and that’s just the tip of the iceberg. But I want to focus on the positives so let’s gloss over the bumpy transition period for now 😅

The advances and changes we’re going to see in the coming years will make today look like the 80’s in a relatively short space of time. The pace of progress in companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, OpenAI right now is breathtaking. People think picture editing or making dodgy FB posters whenever you mention AI but it’s so much more than that, we just think it’s bad for the environment and that it’s taking jobs away when actually alongside technology and robotics it’s going to revolutionise how we live dramatically.

Excited about-

Medical advances and breakthroughs, we’ve seen the impact GLP-1s brought, there’s so much more just like those coming in the next few years. Drugs are being discovered super fast, research is taking months instead of years and analysis of clinical trials is more thorough and accurate. As new technologies come available the medicines keep improving. Gene therapy and having targeted treatments based on our own genetics is an exciting area of research that’s currently happening, the understanding of our own bodies will be a major step forward. I have always been keen in longevity and wellness, areas which I’m watching like a hawk.

Education. AI isn’t going to be a hologram teacher (not yet anyway) instead it could help teachers tailor lessons to each child, minimise many of the laborious administrative tasks, help to identify learning difficulties earlier and much more. I think classrooms are going to look very different in the next 5 years.

Industry. Rather than replacing entire industries, AI will automate repetitive work, improve decision-making and help people work more efficiently. Some sectors will change more than others and productivity will increase along with efficiency in the businesses that adopt and adapt. I think industry and workplaces in general will soon be judged on how quickly they use new technology, those that do will appear relevant and capable and those that don’t will resemble an office if it were still using a typewriter today.

Anyone else excited?

But I'm not talking about citing the wrong research. I'm talking about researchers generating fake research, getting it published, it going into the general knowledge domain (and ai models) as 'fact'. How can you know that a dataset is from real participants or generated? We already use imputation where the computer essentially fills in missing data with what I should have been. I see how some of my colleagues already operate and I've seen some of the scandals in US academia where they've falsified things like heart rate monitoring data to prove a theory the original data didn't actually support.

All the journal editors I speak to say submissions are up 100 fold. That's not because academics are suddenly procrastinating less, it's because they're getting hundreds of submissions (mainly from China) that are at the moment clearly generated. It won't be long before we won't be able to see 'clearly generated', we won't be able to tell. And then our scientific knowledge is very precarious.

Increased fraud is a legitimate risk and requires new tools. governance and controls to be identified and placed to support prevention

whilst Humans may create content for an LLM that could be fake, we can already train LLMs to identify weak, unproven, statistically unsupported data. Data referencing and managing meta data for traceability all become enhanced requirements for using AI.

Blockchain was released years ago almost for this purpose, packaging securing and tagging data in blocks with secure access to specific components. It never really took off except in global finance and pharmaceutical development.

it’s use case is about to leap when we consider preventing fraud through AI either in its inputs and in its outputs and traceability and legitimacy of information at scale.

Shorter work weeks will be a real possibility for a lot of people sooner rather than later. The 100% pay for 80% work and 100% productivity model could even shift as extreme as 150% pay 60% work 150% productivity in those sectors that truly leverage the potency of skilled humans using powerful AI.

3 or 4 days off every week would be transformative for millions of people, extra time to spend with family and friends, long weekends away, play sports, visit museums and art galleries, take up walking or start volunteering or a side hustle.

finance.yahoo.com/sectors/technology/articles/zoom-ceo-predicts-3-day-144202298.html

Fucksake we cannot have an entire workforce of hairdressers. My job is under threat of AI. I love it and am very good at it. I would be a shit, demotivated hairdresser. What good is that? And what about the environmental costs? Have you not noticed we are in the grip of climate change already?

And anyone telling people to try Grok or test drive a Tesla at this point is happy putting money in the pockets of an overt White supremacist.

If you read my posts you’ll see I agree. I’m not saying that at all.

but the person I responded to seems to believe that everything including hairdressing and physiotherapt will be replaced by AI, which is entirely untrue hyperbole.

I can’t comment about your role as I do t know what you. Some roles will be replaced at scale but not entirely replaced at industry level, new roles will be created.

what’s your plan?

Well, in Australia we have a real-life experiment.

Let's see.

In my workplace, and industry, flexible working as a starting point which was already highly supported at policy and cultural level, is much more of a reality now due to using AI to complete tasks within the role allowing workers to flex their time more frequently and realistically due to the efficiencies.

we can much more easily manage the work life balance with a tipping point to ‘life’ activities. Which is exactly how economist predict things pan out.

hence the need for more a more service oriented economy in the UK.

In my workplace, and industry, flexible working as a starting point which was already highly supported at policy and cultural level, is much more of a reality now due to using AI to complete tasks within the role allowing workers to flex their time more frequently and realistically due to the efficiencies.

In your workplace and industry.

How many other workplaces and industries are like that?

I love my job too and it’s at high risk (in a creative industry). I feel so gaslit by these smug bastards talking about how we just need to adapt, we are only at risk if we don’t embrace AI and so on. Ignoring the fact that this is simply untrue, adapting in my case means prompting a machine to produce the work that I have always created myself. Then checking its output.

Compare this to the career I love and find hugely fulfilling, coming up with ideas, making them real, refining them. The career I have trained for and been getting better at my whole life.

I’m allowed to feel fucking depressed about losing that, even in the best-case scenario where I keep my job. All for literally no benefit to myself, because this three-day week bullshit is such obvious fantasyland it’s not even worth engaging with.

'Shorter work weeks will be a real possibility for a lot of people'

Please define 'a lot of people' in % terms. Do you actually mean 'a lot of people' of the people already earning at quite a high level, rather than the much greater proportion of mortals on lessor pay, terms & conditions?

And which is it... will be Universal Income (from where?) or 'some people' earning multiples of their salary for fewer days work?

I notice you are very happy to reply to posts on social issues with glib optimism, but overlook all those on environmental issues. Do you fully grasp the environmental enormity of it? Happening now for those who have to endure the constant hum of data centres and water stress in their local area.

How do you expect me to give you a % without a crystal ball? If you struggle to grasp the incredible scope of potential with this new tech and robotics that’s on you not me.

The environmental impact of data centres is a big issue, I don’t have the answers, Musk wants to put them into space, others are looking at more efficient cooling systems so who knows what that problem looks like over the next few years, I’m fairly confident it won’t be ignored and won’t be a valid reason for us to shy away from AI.

I agree 100%. Just ask AI what is going to happen with the most probability in the UK in 10 years due to AI taking over jobs and you will be horrified.
UK cannot afford the Basic Income concept in 10-20 years. It's this transition that will be absolutely dystopian. We are looking at huge protests and disruption to people's lives. UK will not afford to pay the unemployed and all the welfare without another huge source of budget income.... which is not there.
Life in 3rd World countries will be hell, except for the richest of the rich - see how life in e.g. India is now for the majority of the people and multiply this contrast by 10. The the multi-trillionaires of Meta and the like have already built luxury bunkers in South America to protect themselves. They know they will need it, they know what's coming.

You are absolutely delusional. No CEO will pay anybody for 5 days of work if they can pay for 3. Nobody does that now, so why will they do it in the future? Who will force them? I can't see the governements doing anything about that at the moment. CEOs just want more profit, nobody cares about the people.

I completely agree. So much breathtaking naivety going on.

If a company is only getting 3 days work out of someone they’ll only pay them for 3 days. Why would they pay them for the 2 days the AI is doing?

Alternatively, they’ll just cut staff numbers, those kept on will continue to work 5 days, with AI picking up the slack.

It’s completely different to condensed working where someone does five days work in three or four days by working longer hours on the days they do work and continue to receive the same pay. The person isn’t doing five days work.

The notion that companies will voluntarily just pay people the same for doing less work is so spectacularly delusional it’s almost laughable.

If companies are getting the same or more productivity from employees working 3 or 4 days why wouldn’t they pay them the same? It’s a mindset shift that will be tricky for some Millennials and Gen X , but Gen Z and younger will absolutely be on board with it because they will start to question long work weeks that are unnecessary and inefficient.

The company are also paying for the AI though

I’m a company.

I have a 100 employees working 5 days per week delivering a particular type of work.

Due to AI the same employees can deliver the same work in 3 days.

My options are:

1. Only require them to work three days but pay them the same because they’re equally productive.
2. Keep all 100 employees but as the work can be delivered in 3 days, pay them 3/5ths of their full salary.
3. Make 40 employees redundant and the remaining 60 deliver the same productivity but for less money.
4. Keep all 100 working 5 days per week but expect them to be more productive due to assistance of AI.

I guarantee most businesses will do 2, 3 or 4.

Dreading it. AI will do to the south east what deindustrialisation did to the north, midlands, docks, valleys and shipyards. To say nothing of the water consumption, energy use and wasting of human brains and abilities.

Again. If A.I replaces just 25% of jobs, which is a very conservative estimate; the economy ceases to function. The comparison to the great depression isnt alarmist. Its realistic. A.I doesn't need to replace your hairdresser. If your hairdresser doesn't have any clients because A.I has caused mass job co traction, then your hairdresser will go out of business.

If you believe your entire company, with 350 employees is immune from the A.I fallout, I think you're being incredibly naive.

The reason technology has never been the cause of mass unemployment is because all jobs created needed humans to do them. A.I takes the human out of the equation. Ask anyone employed in the Film and TV industry if they think A.I and CGI has increased the number of jobs in the industry. A.i isnt creating any human centric roles, it's replacing humans. You're thinking in a silo and only concerned with your own industry. The idea that you will only lose your job if you don't use A.I to innovate is just stupid. A huge percentage of all workers aren't in any position to innovate, they are employees with absolutely no control over company policy. When those jobs go, the underlying customer base evaporates and everything above it collapses.

1. Can you explain a bit your understanding of how businesses make profit?

2. Are most decision makers in business gen Z? Or are they in fact boomers, gen X and millennials?

I’m far from naive in the world of AI. I have been deeply immersed for 18months. It is my inherent understanding and early advancements that means I have a workforce strategy that will protect our people, invest in them, and fund our social and economic responsibility to invest in junior positions and grass roots skills.

You refuse to see any possible positive and you are making alarmist statements with zero evidence to back it up.

There are good leaders in the world driving positive outcomes and owning their responsibility.

You’re fixated on a false narrative. You probably have a negative mindset to most things in life.

Good luck to you.

You missed option 5. The single Most important one

Increase business and profit without the relative increase in operational expenses. Nobody gets made redundant.

which leads to 5a. Invest in innovation

How keep your employees happy with flexible working or reduce hours is a different choice

No. But you sound like a an A.I sales executive. I noted you haven't qualified any of my points.

I don’t work in sales. I’m a corporate consumer.

Your points cannot be qualified because they are hyperbolic nonsense based on your own personal beliefs and fears.

There is no research or evidence in the industry that supports your perspective that I could even begin to quote.

I have offered information and perspectives that enable you to be curious but you refuse. Because you already know everything you need to know and that the end of your exploration.

Your only limitation is yourself. And the same goes for everyone.

I think the Bank of England's report on the viability of A.I, which was released today, would beg to differ. And as a corporate consumer, you are blinded by the sales pitch from the companies who underwrite the data centres.