AIBU to think there are still positive signs in the economy?

[coulditbeme2323]

There is plenty of money out there still.

Now let me add the caveat that I know there are people that are struggling, but I think there are reasons to be positive about the economy and country.

The shops are busy, the coffee shops are busy, the restaurant's are busy, and there is money being spent.

We fancied an impromptu roast out on Sunday, and I had to call 5 pubs before I could get a reservation.

I still think we are a few more years away to see the property market where it once was, but I do think there are signs to be hopeful.

I was trying to be positive based on experiences, it doesn't have to be all doom and gloom.

You must be a bot. Surely. You said almost the same thing a couple of pages ago. Where’s your evidence?

I am having a conversation based on what I see, that's all.

As I have said it's anecdotal, it was just me trying to be positive.

Apologies.

Lol OP, we are giving you a hard time here. But one persons anecdotal evidence in a population of around 70 million is not exactly conclusive is it?
And when confronted with the facts and other people having a very different take on it, you massively doubled down rather than reading the room. Bound to cause frustration

I appreciate it it's different for everybody, but I see nothing bad with being positive.

But how can you be positive with no evidence to support that?

I know I sound like a broken record - and I apologise for that. But, in fairness, you do as well. You’re just repeating this need to be positive about the economy based on limited anecdotal evidence, and most people are disagreeing with you.

What are you hoping to get from this thread?

Almost half of the voters appear to agree with you, even if reading the thread doesn't suggest that.

To be positive.

Look I am not trying to be chancellor of the exchequer - I have been fully open that my evidence is anecdotal.

Last Bank Holiday weekend we were in London. We tried to stay another night, but the hotel was fully booked, the London shows were sold out, The Lego store was a 20 minute queue and more often than not people were coming out with bags.

My area (Windsor) is lively, the cafes and restaurants are packed.

Tried to book a last minute hotel in Christchurch (just outside Bournemouth) for this weekend and it was fully booked.

Tried to book a hotel for this weekend in Hook (just outside Winchester) and fully booked.

Now people can send links of the GDP - and I am not dismissing that.

I am just giving positive stories of at least 4 areas above.

You’re opining on vibes.

Here’s my objective view based on facts as a Senior Leader in Hospitality.

Hospitality is crippled. Food costs through the roof. Rates through the roof. Cost of staying compliant through the roof. Staff costs through the roof - both due to wages / associated costs and also the cost of trying to attract, train & retain good staff in a generation where quite frankly there’s an endemic of entitlement, made even harder by changes in UK Employment Law. Fundamental restaurant ‘services’ such as Sunday lunch are being propped up by diversifications such as running delivery food kitchens (I.e uber eats / just eat type food) at the same time.

People aren’t eating out as much. When they do, it tends to be special occasions / weekends. How do you run a restaurant with only three days of reliable business?

People would rather have a coffee from Pret every day than eat out for dinner.

Well thats positive, thank you.

What area?

As a business owner I can tell you it actually went ok for us this year. Our peak season is Sept to March.

And when I say ok. It is absolutely no where near where it should be. Just going in the right direction compared to the complete garbage bin the past 3/ 4 years have been.

Sadly those associated in our business who operate year round have been talking of a worrying shift the last few months. So I am not holding up much hope that the momentum is continuing.

We need tax cuts for business. VAT needs to be lowered and they need to encourage entrepreneurs and small business. But I worry because today I read Wes Streeting campaign against ‘personal service companies’ and dividends.

You might think oh that’s great. If I am a slave to my boss and need permission to go to the dentist then why should I get taxed more than him. Thing is your not. Dividends only come after corp tax and so it’s pretty even Steven’s when you consider bosses risk their capital to hire you.

The only difference will be. If you do decide to become your own boss. You’re going to get taxed MORE than an employee. And make yourself ineligible for any support. So thats pretty much all bar the super wealthy business owners just forced into employment. Were you are trapped and can be made redundant, fired, have no choice what you get paid or charge your services at.

Basically they just want us all to be worker bees. It’s a system hard enough to escape as it is and they are just making it harder.

I think it depends on the type of restaurant/bar.

The very cheap places are busy here. As are the nicer, pricier places. But the middle of the road, chain type places are definitely not busy.

Nationally. Whole of the UK (and somewhat in Europe). I oversee 76 large scale hospitality businesses/ outfits covering a myriad of operating models / products.

People we’ll tell you the cheap places will be busy all the time. They may be. But I can tell you now the bottom line won’t be able to keep up with the business / pricing model and they will struggle. Whitbread are a case in point - they are closing circa 200 restaurants with an impact of around 4000 job losses. If they can’t make it work propped up by bedroom factory business, then how do the smaller outfits survive?

I was in the Trafford Centre recently and it was heaving. No parking, impossible to get a table in the food court, walking should to shoulder with people. But funnily enough, going into the shops themselves, it would be fairly empty of people.

DH and I started talking notice that hardly anyone was carrying a bag with purchases. Very few were going into the actual shops. People were just having a free day out wandering around and possibly a fast food lunch.

Personally am not feeling optimistic. Rising fuel costs are causing a real problem for the low income working households. When your drive to work now means you can no longer afford food it's on the edge of being a disincentive to work. Don't suggest public transport. This is people getting to factories for 6.30am shift starts.

You can find busy coffee shops in my market town but they are closed Sun-Tues and when open close at 4pm. We went for a pub roast 6pm on a Sunday a couple of weeks ago. Only 3 tables were occupied. How overheads are being covered I don't know.

I'm not seeing it, tbh, or perhaps I should add "yet" to that statement.

Retail and hospitality don't seem to be suffering in my small (approx 19k population, and growing), but affluent, Sussex town, but independents seem to be suffering (except for coffee shops).

An independent boutique closed down last week. There's now only one, where we used to have several, although Sea Salt, White Stuff, Jigsaw and Crew Clothing seem to be keeping going and are busy. We only have one (expensive, independent) shoe shop, which only has a tiny selection of children's shoes, and there's nowhere you can buy kids' clothes (used to have 2 independent kids clothes shops, plus M&Co), nowhere you can buy underwear other than a tiny range in Tesco (had an independent), 2 of the 3 stationers and the only hardware shop have closed, two or three independent restaurants have gone and even Pizza Express hasn't been able to keep going. Pubs that used to have a steady trade in the daytime are quieter, but plenty of them are busy in the evenings and very busy at weekends, although one (which was, frankly, a bit shit) is now dead, and one has closed altogether. The only place to get a lot of things is Argos.

It's bloody annoying having to do a 15-20 mile round trip to buy any DIY or decorating stuff, a new bra or swimwear or a pair of school shoes. Someone tried to get a new hardware store going, but it was tiny and couldn't carry much of a range, so it folded.

Coffee's a different matter though. I swear you could have a coffee out every day for 3 weeks or so without going to the same place twice. We not only have 2 Costas, a Cafe Nero, a Gails and a Cornish Bakery but also endless independent places. Maybe people are using coffee shops at lunchtime/in the afternoons instead of the pubs.

Incidentally Cambridge has one of the cheapest housing costs for students and many colleges can offer help if parents are struggling to finance. Relative was given an Issac Newton bursary £3k pa. Years ago - may well be more now. Oxford may have same?

Oooh I’m glad to hear Manchester is still busy and vibe-y, I’m visiting there in a few weeks for a festival! Do people recommend I book all restaurants in advance? I haven’t booked my hotel yet because there seem to be plenty and I’m hoping I can get a last minute deal. But it sounds like restaurants might fill up?

Why would people assume customers in a coffee shop are ‘trading down’ and forgoing other luxuries? For one thing, lots of people work from coffee shops, so they are literally being productive and helping the economy… !

Exactly

Headline news guys - Windsors economy is doing great! 👏 yippee so happy for you. Let's all celebrate 🥳 oh wait....we can't afford to...Nevermind, still it's great news rich people in Windsor are doing well. I'll raise my glass of tap water to you! Hurrah!

It's a very narrow minded view of looking at it.

That's the whole point of your thread no?