AIBU to think there are still positive signs in the economy?

[coulditbeme2323]

There is plenty of money out there still.

Now let me add the caveat that I know there are people that are struggling, but I think there are reasons to be positive about the economy and country.

The shops are busy, the coffee shops are busy, the restaurant's are busy, and there is money being spent.

We fancied an impromptu roast out on Sunday, and I had to call 5 pubs before I could get a reservation.

I still think we are a few more years away to see the property market where it once was, but I do think there are signs to be hopeful.

I'm in London too.

SE and London are still the wealthiest areas of UK, when shops and restaurants become empty here we're in deep sh.t. But even here in traditional business areas it's quieter than it used to be.

Most important - it's not visible signs such as restaurants in the most affluent parts of the country, it's unemployment which is true indicator. And it's consistently growing every month.

During the school holidays for a family? Including transport?

Your mistake is extrapolating to a wider discussion on ‘economy’ which is by definition a countrywide thing and has meaningful data which irrefutably disproves your point at the UK level
It’s fine to say some places are doing ok. It’s great for them.
It’s ridiculous however to then draw the conclusion that the economy at large has signs in any one direction

But I live in a town just outside of Bristol. In the last 25 years we've gained 10,000 people, 8 new pubs/bars and lost 1. We have also gained 6 restaurants, 7 takeaways and 6 coffee shops. Everyone is busy, apart from the pub attached to a hotel outside of the beaten track. I get passed by high end sports cars daily. The average house price has to be 3/4 mill. And they sell. The docks is packed with leisure craft big boats. I know people with their own helicopters and planes...I hasen to add I moved here 35 years ago during the 90s recession and paid £55k for my house and I spent 15 working as a gardener....so not much of the cash is mine!

Bristol itself is boom town, whole streets of bars and restaurants have been built in the last 15 years, since I stopped working in the centre. There is construction work everywhere.

There is full employment, there is no excuse for not having a job. And I think that is what makes the difference.

Breaking news…..you don’t measure the health of the economy by how many people turn up to your local Toby Carvery on a Sunday.

GDP per capita has been reducing for many years now.
Rate of inflation is increasing.
Unemployment is increasing fast and youth unemployment is as disastrous levels already.
Hightest rate taxpayers are leaving and benefits bill is higher than ever.
Thousands of businesses are failing
The markets think that Starmer and Reeves are worse than Liz Truss hence the high borrowing rates

This country’s economy is a disaster zone. Queuing up for a coffee or a roast ain’t signs of economic health.

I would not define a society is doing well by the number of coffee shops it has that are busy.
I would look at what it Makes. Builds. Sells. And I don’t mean a cup of coffee and a cake.
What industry do we have? Are we selling our products to other countries ?
Productivity matters. How task focused we are at work. Outputs. Targets met. The HS2 has been appalling. Over budget and not on time.
That is the sort of thing to look at.

I am actually thinking of making a proposal to the Bank of England.

I'll lurk around bus queues, listening to people mutter about the price of groceries.

I'll transform the muttering level into a predictive inflation forecast.

My belief is it will actually produce better results than what the BOE get currently.

I don't think the end is in sight by any means, but I think there are reasons for it not to be all doom and gloom.

Very insensitive of you to say that, given the increasingly high unemployment rate and prices of basic food items.

When in a hole, stop digging!

or plough on regardless with your ‘vibe’ regardless of the cold, hard facts apparently

I’ll have a pint of what you’re drinking.

Or actually good news for a change?

@coulditbeme2323 What economic model are you using? The coffee shop test? That’s one for the Bank of England and the Treasury and the OBR and the IFS to bone up on then! Every single person with an ounce of economic sense knows we overspend, there’s limited growth, overseas factors damage us, costs are going up, there’s not enough housing, there’s far too much spent on benefits and business isn’t encouraged. Some areas like Windsor are going to be busy but many people have wage stagnation or face redundancy. Young people cannot get jobs because we don’t have a bouyant economy. Labour is right about productivity, growth and cutting some spending. But - it doesn’t back this up with sensible policies and now allows our debt repayments to get even higher! It’s irresponsible and not helping business to thrive.

Facts are great - but surely people are allowed to comment based on experience.

What would those reasons be, please?

Preferably hard data as opposed to ‘feelings’ or anecdotes.

Certain towns and cities doing very well, people spending lots, lots of hotels and resorts doing well.

Can't we just celebrate wins!

Yes, but you’ve not included any facts in your posts. You’ve focused purely on experience. And to add, you’ve only focused on your personal experience, which counts for very little in terms of meaningful evidence.

The below news from the Guardian today really goes against your claims:

UK business activity contracts in May as economy faces 'perfect storm'
The purchasing managers’ index (PMI) by S&P Global dropped to 48.5, well below an expected 51.6 and under the 50 threshold that marks the difference between expansion and contraction.
The decline was driven by a fall in the services sector, where the reading slumped to 47.9, compared with expectations of 51.
It was its worst performance since January 2021, when the economy was dealing with the Covid-19 pandemic.

This means nothing!!!

What good news would that be?

In the nicest possible way, you may have a political axe to grind, but your assertion is not supported by the economic data, I’m afraid.

I mean it will do to the business's doing well.

See above

I don't have a political axe.

See what above? Your posts are so general and vague that they are meaningless.

I understand not everywhere, but there are lots of places doing well.

I think that's good to see.