Page 10 | I'm fed up with everyone tiptoeing around Brexit having been rubbish

paddleboardingmum · 2026-05-18T18:23:26+00:00

We can all see how it hasn't stopped immigration, we don't have the more money for the NHS that was promised, and everyone is worse off. I'm sure even many who voted for it - who were conned at the time- also can see it was rubbish. Isn't it time for people to stop pretending it was a good idea. That doesn't mean we need to rejoin right now or blame anybody, but I think it's time to just face facts and stop trying to pretend it was a good idea.

GasPanic · 19/05/2026 18:36

ByGraptharsHammer · 19/05/2026 18:23

TBH I think the greater issue was the basket case Conservative government that implemented it. They were chaotic. I’m sure a lot of them knew the problems were going to be huge, but they had their careers to make. The myth seems to be somehow no one else noticed internationally. It has put us in a bad place for the investment we need, and just at the point when we need a lot of growth to sustain our commitments on debt, defence, and pensions. Maybe it would have beaten any government. Labour have the same issues in a similar way, chop leaders, pathetic growth, cannot make cuts, Chancellors with the same tactics to balance a budget.

There are a minority of Brexit people who harbour a Singapore on Thames fantasy - that is not arriving any time soon.

I think the Singapore on Thames model was interesting.

But is probably scuppered now from its association with Truss.

Which is kind of a shame, because it was/is something different, and we certainly need to do something different in the UK from what we are doing currently.

This I think is the worst part of the legacy that Truss has left IMO. The fact that anyone following her has and will be unlikely to undertake any sort of radical change out of fear that what might happen as a result.

More toeing the line, more steady as she goes. Which IMO is not what the UK needs at the moment.

I was hoping Starmer would be different and bold, but no.

Clavinova · 19/05/2026 18:38

SapphOhNo · 19/05/2026 11:04

I think this is a bit misleading because the argument was never that Brexit would cause an instant Mad Max-style collapse visible on a GDP graph. The argument was that the UK economy would be smaller than it otherwise would have been.

Even the OBR still estimates Brexit will reduce long-run productivity and trade by around 4–15%, and the recent NBER paper estimated a 6–8% hit to GDP by 2025 Tthe figures quoted don’t exactly show the UK outperforming comparable economies, the Eurozone overall has actually grown more since 2019, and the US massively more. Germany struggling doesn’t suddenly make Brexit a success. And “we’ll replace EU trade with the US and Asia” was always the theory, but years later there’s still little evidence it has offset the loss of frictionless access to our largest nearby market.

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Even the OBR still estimates

The OBR doesn't have the resources to calculate its own Brexit estimates - it mostly relies on external studies. If you look at OBR reports, they usually refer to 'assumptions' rather than estimates.

the Eurozone overall has actually grown more since 2019

The Eurozone average is distorted by Ireland's GDP figures - global pharmaceutical and tech firms record their licensing income in Ireland for tax purposes.

Swiftie1878 · 19/05/2026 18:39

Notonthestairs · 19/05/2026 17:45

Brexit has damaged our economy ON TOP of all the other global issues.
Hiding behind those doesn’t mean Brexit had zero impact - we limited our trade, created new barriers, wasted umpteen years of government and parliamentary time & energy and we had to deal with everything else as well.

Then why are the EU nations doing just as badly?

Swiftie1878 · 19/05/2026 18:40

SapphOhNo · 19/05/2026 17:39

And lost even more in trade and growth...

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The EU isn’t growing either. Covid hit everyone.

ByGraptharsHammer · 19/05/2026 18:57

@GasPanic - Truss did not have a grip on economic reality.

But you have a point on radicalism. Brexit is the mouse that roars. What would have to happen to the UK domestically to change what has been a balancing act between the two formerly major parties is something no one wants to talk about. My view on Reform is a question mark. I do not like them, but there is this question. Can they really be coherent in government? Or would it just be decline in a different way with huge social suffering?

GasPanic · 19/05/2026 19:29

ByGraptharsHammer · 19/05/2026 18:57

@GasPanic - Truss did not have a grip on economic reality.

But you have a point on radicalism. Brexit is the mouse that roars. What would have to happen to the UK domestically to change what has been a balancing act between the two formerly major parties is something no one wants to talk about. My view on Reform is a question mark. I do not like them, but there is this question. Can they really be coherent in government? Or would it just be decline in a different way with huge social suffering?

I don't know about the economic reality. from what I read the major problem was not with the proposals Truss/Kwarteng made, but the speed and unplanned way they were presented to the markets. That doesn't mean I agree with their ideas. But I do think they warrant further investigation.

Re Reform, obviously as a party they will become more professional as they attract more career politicians and more money to fund party apparatus like policy making units that the larger/more established parties actually have. I don't think it should be underestimated how difficult it is to achieve this and the money that is required to do it.

Will they "professionalise" the party in time for any power that they might gain in government ? I don't know. Some people might think the fact that they are not all established career politicians might be to their advantage. The markets might think differently.

hedgeknight · 19/05/2026 19:31

Swiftie1878 · 19/05/2026 18:39

Then why are the EU nations doing just as badly?

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Because the EU is not a magic wand

But being part of the EU would have benefitted the UK. Brexit has harmed the UK

Clavinova · 19/05/2026 19:53

SapphOhNo · 19/05/2026 11:32

But this basically boils down to “it’s impossible to prove anything conclusively therefore Brexit can’t be blamed”, which isn’t really how economics works. We can’t rerun history with a control UK that stayed in the EU, so economists use comparative modelling and counterfactuals all the time, including for Covid, inflation, tax policy etc.

The broad consensus from bodies like the OBR, IMF, LSE, NIESR and pretty much most mainstream economists is that Brexit has had a negative impact on trade, investment and productivity. The fact the UK economy didn’t literally collapse doesn’t mean Brexit succeeded, it just means the UK absorbed the damage alongside a load of other global shocks. And people keep shifting the goalposts here because Brexit wasn’t sold as “things will broadly muddle along”. We were repeatedly told things would be better.

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NIESR

Interestingly, I came across this NIESR blog/Q & A the other day, searching for something else. I noticed an error in the first answer. They claimed (in Jan 2025) that;

In 2023, the UK remained the only G7 nation that had not recovered to its pre-pandemic level of GDP.

However, I recall significant revisions to UK GDP figures in September 2023:

UK economy 1.8% bigger than in Q4 2019, new figures show
Previous data had showed economy 0.2% smaller than pre-pandemic

(We recovered pre-pandemic size at the end of 2021)

The economists at the NIESR should have been aware of these revisions.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-grows-02-q2-2023-2023-09-29/
https://niesr.ac.uk/blog/five-years-economic-impact-brexit

SapphOhNo · 19/05/2026 19:57

Clavinova · 19/05/2026 19:53

NIESR

Interestingly, I came across this NIESR blog/Q & A the other day, searching for something else. I noticed an error in the first answer. They claimed (in Jan 2025) that;

In 2023, the UK remained the only G7 nation that had not recovered to its pre-pandemic level of GDP.

However, I recall significant revisions to UK GDP figures in September 2023:

UK economy 1.8% bigger than in Q4 2019, new figures show
Previous data had showed economy 0.2% smaller than pre-pandemic

(We recovered pre-pandemic size at the end of 2021)

The economists at the NIESR should have been aware of these revisions.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-economy-grows-02-q2-2023-2023-09-29/
https://niesr.ac.uk/blog/five-years-economic-impact-brexit

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That’s a fair correction actually. But that’s not really the killer point you seem to think it is. The broader argument was never that the UK economy literally failed to recover at all, it’s that most evidence suggests it recovered more weakly than it otherwise would have done outside the additional friction Brexit introduced.

Gealach · 19/05/2026 19:58

Swiftie1878 · 19/05/2026 18:39

Then why are the EU nations doing just as badly?

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Overall the EU is doing slightly better than the UK?

But anyway. It’s just not as simple as making that comparison. The Uk has a strong services sector, this gives it a cushion against the global shocks that have impacted everyone. But without Brexit, it would be doing better, according to most economists.

Also the long term impact will be there. Everyone is suffering from these global shocks, but it will recover as these ease. Meanwhile Britian will still have left the world’s largest trading block and caused barriers to trade.

Clavinova · 19/05/2026 20:07

SapphOhNo · 19/05/2026 19:57

That’s a fair correction actually. But that’s not really the killer point you seem to think it is. The broader argument was never that the UK economy literally failed to recover at all, it’s that most evidence suggests it recovered more weakly than it otherwise would have done outside the additional friction Brexit introduced.

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that’s not really the killer point you seem to think it is

I don't think I suggested it was a killer point.