Six weeks of jet fuel left

[Nellietheolophant]

It has been officially announced and i really don't think it's scaremongering anymore.
Both Lufhthansa and KLM are cancelling flights now.

@Catza

This is a funded trip for children living in poverty in the city I live in. It is funded via a national children’s charity whereby they will be meeting other kids in Spain and visiting cultural sites.

I myself grew up in poverty - I didn’t fly until my early 20s and it was no big deal. It’s more the excitement this group of kids are currently feeling in anticipation of the trip. I don’t need sympathy. I am simply saying i will feel disappointed for them all if it gets cancelled at the last minute. That is a totally normal way to feel. It most certainly doesn’t mean I cannot empathise and dislike the wider political situation.

Seeing the Jewish population in the US is less than 3% (including children who can't vote) how can Trump rely on the Jewish vote?

He needs all the votes he can get !
Jewish voters turn out to vote comparative to others.
In swing states their vote can really make a difference. So yes, their vote matters. They might only be less than 3% but their voting behaviour and the fact they can be relied on to turn out to vote makes them important.

I'm getting confused and I started the one on the holiday forum!

The assumption is that Jews block vote for whoever supports Israel the most. It's pretty much antisemitic really.

We’ve a holiday booked in six weeks. It is to celebrate my DMs big birthday and it’s taken some organising to suit a largish family group and fit in with school holidays. It’s cost me a lot of money and not something we will do very often.So yes, it is possible to be horrified at what’s happening which will very likely end without any really positive outcome for any state. It’s still possible to be very upset that an eagerly awaited family holiday may well not happen, and for what?

This is the one that has made me take notice. I'm not impacted by price increases but bloody hell I do not want flights cancelled!

This may not be as bad as it seems. We only keep 6 weeks reserve at any given time I think

Great.
An excuse not to do a duty visit to another country to see an elderly parent this year.

Can anyone who is experienced with these things tell me how the current uncertainties about aviation and probably any fuel prices might impact school planning school trips abroad next year? Our school takes students to a range of places in Europe and further afield each year including by plane and coach.

Can school even realistically cost up such travel at this point in time?

Not without a crystal ball I would imagine.

You do realise this is AIBU not holidays?

Only in the sense that we suddenly had to adapt. And it was fascinating to have my theory that human beings are overwhelmingly selfish creatures proven 🤣

COVID was a massive and sudden shift for everyone, but the world didn’t fall apart. We quickly adapted to remote working, video meetings etc etc.

The cancellation of passenger flights is nowhere near the impact of that. We adapted to a huge and scary change, this is peanuts by comparison

@NotAnotherScarf the founder of octopus energy is all for net zero.
He's a maverick and very inspirational.
However he said it needs to be done in conjunction with what we already use.
He said he would immediately cancel eds huge funding for carbon capture bectsuee it's simply not proven !!
What a waste I heard this at the time.
We gently transition we don't do what these people are doing.

I hear you @MrsFaustus. A lot of people don’t seem to understand that it’s possible to care about more than one thing at a time.

I'm also hearing ex industry heads asking where our fuel plan is.
The gov keeps saying we have a diverse sustainable policy but what it is

It's very confusing having two identically titles threads in different forums.

Airlines cut flights and hike fares as fuel prices surge

This BBC article is from 7 April - it's been happening a while - they'll slowly cut some flights and increase fares reducing demand on others.

Longer this goes on more people will be affected and airlines will do more of it.

Apperently the american hotels are waiting on last minute rush for world cup hotel rooms - as if people who spent thousands on tickets would leave travel plans to last minute. It's in eight weeks - the fuel situation likely to start kicking in more in 6 weeks. They only at most seen an 11- 15% increase from last year booking at same time - I suspect that hiding a general drop in travel especaily international travel and their tourism revenue.

breaking world cup travel news us faces visitor decline hotel cancellations ahead of 2026 matches

I googled the figures and toursims in 2023 employed 15 million vs 1 million in gas and oil and it's something like 204 billion dollars in tourism vs 55 billion oil and gas brings in to US economy. So I suppose it comes down to where the Trump family and allies hold shares - though the petrol price at US pumps is already hurting Trump and the Republicans.

The Iranians seem to be beaving very logically - they'be brought the US to table for talks with their agenda and now have the US putting pressure on Israel around Lebanon. Meanwhile Ameicans don't seem to understand what they've signed up for with cease fire with Pakistan the mediators also pointing this out.

COVID was a massive and sudden shift for everyone, but the world didn’t fall apart. We quickly adapted to remote working, video meetings etc etc.

In terms of operations, yes this is tru, we adapted but the lack of interpersonal interactions and cap on personal freedoms was incredibly depressing and, if I dare say so, traumatising for many, socially students. It ripped away from western democracies deeply ingrained expectations of civil life and society. And of course we were psy opped by government messages about Stay home save lives.

Holidays aside, the fertiliser problem does concern me as Britain is so dependent on imports. Qatar's gas is used to make a lot if fertiliser for the rest of the world. Flights can resume once fuel supplies are back, but if a farmer misses the planting window because he can't afford fertiliser or can't get it, that's a years worth if crops gone. The knock on impact could run for over 18 months.

Also: I don't think we can be self sufficient in food again with the population size we have. There was a reason why the U Boat menace was so nightmarish to merchant ships in WW2 and we've doubled in size since then.

That a strange response, surely in order to predict the cost of a school trip and book trips school staff must already be dealing with with this. And if the cost cannot be predicted, there will be contingencies, right? For example, not going an ahead with planning routine trips for next year.

Don’t you think that it’s more about looking forward to the trip and then not being able to go?
I hadn’t planned anything and so I’m not that bothered about the possibility of not going anywhere (have other issues at play too anyway), but if I’d organised a rare treat and then it had to be cancelled I’m sure I’d be disappointed.

I worried about fertiliser I read it will hit next year with food prices getting much higher in reponse.

I'm more concerned about supplies of diesel than jet fuel. We can do without most flights, but lack of diesel will disrupt everything else.

@JacquesHarlow excuse my ignorance but did anyone accept responsibility for the school attack. Or is there assembled evidence? I haven't been following it closely and don't believe anything I read online anymore because it's usually US sources.