How long before fuel rationing?

[Bettercallsalli]

A lot of talk of possible fuel rationing here if this conflict continues.
Will Airlines be able to cope? It does seem inevitable now.

@SouthernNights59 counties around the world are affected and taking appropriate measures including cutting fuel tax. If there was such a huge risk this would increase use why are other counties doing it.

Why are other countries doing lots and we are doing absoltuy nothing ?

We are facing medical shortages and many small things we can't think of like the aforementioned helium for scanners and our pm is apparently going to tell us all we are lucky because small business will bear lots more costs

This is such an illogical take - if we had pushed net zero FASTER we would be less impacted by oil supply issues!

Exactly. I think Australia and NZ have done this. Our government is profiteering from the misery of others.

So surprised by the constsnt accusations on here of scaremongering.
Just because you don't want to hear it and want no disruption to your little nice bubble, it does not mean it's not happening.
I have also seen the announcement by Jet 2 today. Lots of holidays will be affected.

Obviously Tesco and Asda are going to run out as people don't want to pay the prices elsewhere.

What have Jet2 said? All I could find was,

As of late February 2026, Jet2 reported that over 75% of its fuel requirements for the 2026/2027 financial year are already hedged. This hedging strategy protects the company from the full, immediate impact of fluctuating oil prices.

So surprised by your constant accusations @Bettercallsalli that people "don't want to hear it".

Don't want to hear WHAT exactly? You haven't been able to substantiate a single thing you've shared.

You've basically made wild sweeping views that the UK has to end up fuel rationing because of the war.

And that you, @Bettercallsalli are "not going to be a martyr" and miss out on having a fully brimmed tank just because society expects us to remain calm. Y

ou pointed out in a previous post that it stung to see others during Covid get what they wanted, and "you snooze you lose" was your phrase.

And...that's it. The UK government has not said they're going to ration, but they may be forced to make a statement this week because of this kind of mentality. People buying jerry cans, people queuing at petrol stations with 3/4 of a tank full, people determined to feel "ready".

The "disruption to [my] nice little bubble" is coming from people like yourself. People who want to sound knowledgeable above the rest, people who want to boast and proclaim how prepared they are, people who want to show they are in control of world events and have the intelligence and foresight to plan when others don't.

It's the hundreds or even thousands of people like this, spending their time brimming tanks and filling airing cupboards with toilet rolls, who completely fail to see that their behaviour and panic (yep, let's call it that) is causing the problem.

You are obsessed, as many others are, with maintaining the exact standard of living every single week, that you think you're owed.

Why else would you say "look at the Jet2 announcement"... why should that matter except that for Brits, cutting off holidays might as well be announcing an NHS shutdown, such is the extreme entitlement people have.

YABVU but I realise with regret at the end of writing this, that nothing I write will make much difference.

I also cannot see any announcement from Jet2 @facethemusical

..but I fear this all comes from the internet school of "DM me hun" to appear in the know, rather than openly share on the thread a summary of what Jet2 said or why it's relevant to the argument.

All I have seen about holidays is there could be chaos because of new check in procedures, nothing about Jet 2

Yes thus the problem with anything state owned, they become political mechanisms.

if UK government actually ran any of these industries they would not be viable. Taking tax receipts is the right approach for such an unstable government model. Obviously root cause solution would be to have a state owned body independent of politics

Exactly. China gets a lot of negative news coverage for adding coal fired capacity. But they are adding renewable generation at an even greater rate, visibly so, wind turbines have popped up on ridges and hills everywhere, solar panels are everywhere, factory roofs, the wasted patches of ground at motorway junctions, and the three gorges dam for hydro. There is also a new hydro power project just starting. They have gone from around 20% renewable to 40% in a few years. Hence they can electrify most transport and are quite insulated from all of this.
But I don't think that renewables is the missing piece of the puzzle, having a government with a vision and a strategy would be my first step.

I disagree. If there isn’t spare money, then don’t spend it where others’ main intention is to profit.

And all for net zero. Look how much more cushioned Germany are from energy rises. They were sensible to make their own. Obviously governments which sell oil eg USA(and their supporters) will disagree, as they profit from our slow approach.

Michael O'Leary stated this morning that Ryanair's aviation fuel could be curtailed from May. I've no idea whether that's another publicity stunt to get us all going away now 😊or if it's a weather vane from those in the industry. That company is usually good at hedging its fuel.

I thought Germany’s economy got hit harder than most due to the reliance on Russian oil and gas?

It is when you have based your entire economy on ironing out any and all inefficiencies that could protect you.

A lot of supposedly "clever" people totally fail to grasp that if you are running your company at 100% efficiency then you have fuck all room for resilience.

When COVID hit, quite a few companies I had worked with bitterly regretted their devotion to "lean" as it meant losing a single worker halted complete projects.

A good rule of thumb is to be accepting of 15% "inefficiency" (a figure you will notice is greater than 12).

This thread is a good example of why the UK is so pisspoor at planning.

Literally wouldn’t need fuel rationing if people just bought fuel as they usually would do.

I drive long distance for work and only fill up when my tank is empty - to give an example I’ve done 1800 business miles in the last month, never mind personal miles too.

However around our way there are constant queues at petrol stations clearly from people constantly keeping their tank topped up

I appreciate people are keeping topped up whilst the prices are at the level they are in fear they will rocket, however all this is doing is pushing prices up due to ‘supply and demand’ - garages are proving they can charge through the roof and (stupid) people are willingly flocking

The difference is that nuclear power should be forming part of our energy mix, whereas fossil fuels are on the way out.

We need all of it, be pragmatic. A country that maximises energy will do better and that can be a mix. Don’t limit one of those if you don’t have to yet.

Cutting VAT will just make the supply issues worse

Im optimistic about it all. Whatever happens, change is good.

I'd be inclined to listen to the likes of MOL on that one.

With regard to the various mentions about hedging all that does in basic terms is guarantee with an agent/broker the price per tonne, barrel or whatever for x months down the road,

What is doesn't do is guarantee the broker can actually get the fuel ..

So it in theory would be perfectly possible to be hedged through until the autumn but not be able to actually fuel the aircraft up in a month or two....

With regard to the various mentions about hedging all that does in basic terms is guarantee with an agent/broker the price per tonne, barrel or whatever for x months down the road,
What is doesn't do is guarantee the broker can actually get the fuel ..

However, we live in a country where people think tweaking mortgage rates is a substitute for building houses.

Of course it's bollocks. Using a non approved container is illegal and this would be about as non approved as possible. I doubt there's a petrol station in the UK that would allow this to happen!

This is what he said, for info if you haven't seen it, taken from the Irish Times which is paywalled.

Disruptions to jet fuel supply are expected from “early May” if the war continues beyond the end of April, Ryanair chief executive Michael O’Leary has said.
“The fuel companies are happy there won’t any disruption until early May. But if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June,” he said, speaking on Sky News on Wednesday.
“Obviously, we hope the war will finish sooner than that and that the risk to supply will be eliminated.”
O’Leary said Ryanair was “reasonably well hedged” on 80 per cent of its fuel but added it is paying almost double (at around $150 a barrel) on the other 20 per cent.
He said if the war ends and the Strait of Hormuz reopens by the end of this month, “then there’s no risk to supply”.
“Like everybody else in the industry, we hope that this war will end sooner rather than later,” he said.

https://www.irishtimes.com/world/middle-east/2026/04/01/iran-war-latest-trump-us-news-israel-oil/#76719