How long before fuel rationing?

[Bettercallsalli]

A lot of talk of possible fuel rationing here if this conflict continues.
Will Airlines be able to cope? It does seem inevitable now.

<runs through the thread flapping and lets self out again>

Thank you!

North Sea drilling is totally counter-productive? really? So greater energy security and protecting hundreds of thousands of jobs, plus tax revenues, plus lower emissions than importing gas is counter-productive?

We have to rely on ourselves,

You aren't going to achieve anything for 5-10 years, by which point the grid will have better transmission capacity so we can make the most of the plentiful wind energy in Scotland.

Why not? Because it is going to be pretty bad and there is very little they can do about it and who would want to admit that? Especially a gov with so little good will as this one.

That link says that the 12% is mostly aviation fuel and road diesel, so the impact is only on those fuels. Which means the percentage reduction of those fuels is greater than 12%. For example say that diesel and petrol are about 50:50 and that the 12% was almost entirely diesel that would mean the amount of diesel supply lost is more like a quarter....... and it is the one used to move everything around the country.....

One thing I know is that a few are making an absolute fortune out of the current crisis.

It's pointless to worry about fuel rationing as no amount of preparation is going to shield you from it if it gets that dire and going about stockpiling fuel will only make you a target for criminals who will most certainly take advantage of a dwindling resource.

Just carry on as normally as you can and hope for the best (it's all most of us can really do).

Shhh. Inconvenient facts the so-called Nationalists don't want to hear.

I can't believe that no one has replied directly @Bettercallsalli on this extraordinary post above but I'm willing to give it a go.

"I'm not going to be a martyr"... Come off it. Do you even know the meaning of the word in the context you're using?

I think since COVID-19 and the regrettable actions of the Tory government in miscommunications during lockdowns, failing to protect the social covenant by following up with explainers etc, there has been a rise in the strident, "I'm in it for me" vocal group in Britain on social media. It's the sort of "won't get fooled again!" mob, but very hardened this time.

You see it with folk saying "I'll never ever wear a face nappy I'll die before that happens". You see it with the fuel stuff as well, "No one can tell me how much fuel I should buy, they want us all in 15 minute cities" etc.

I'm not saying any of this is "ignorant" or that I'm accusing folk of being wrong.

I just find it so very depressing that some of us have given up on the social contract so quickly and easily, and are so keen to tell others as quickly as possible just how selfish we've become.

So yeah, I'm happy for you that you watched others behaving selfishly and you've decided you'll keep your tank brimmed every single day, and stock up on pasta and toilet rolls, just so that your not "missing out".

It's just the mentality I can't stand. "If you snooze you lose".. so the entire point of our existence is to get in front of the other person, ensure we've won the resource allocation game, and go home to our "Live, laugh love" sign happy in the notion that we've atavistically protected our cave?

I've really given up with so many British folk who think like this (and yes, I am a fellow Brit, multiple car owner, but a Brit who committed the heinous crime of living abroad and not owning a car when I did).

I don't like the way this country is going, so many folk extremely keen to feel like they're "winning".

New Zealand

People here are also using public transport much more and taking to their bikes. That may well be more because of the price than because they think we will run out, but it still helps.

There are other sources of fuel, and wind and solar need very little sun/wind to work. But you will do realise there are other sources of renewable energy?

The gov can do what other counties are doing ,slash.fuel duty make public transport free , encourage at least one day a week working from home ,alternate number plates driving days , preserve stocks for essential service and so much more.

Slashing fuel duty encourages fuel use.
Would be better just to ration and add other measures, like you mentioned, and reduce motorway speed limits to 55mph, like the US had to do in the 1970’s.
Even if the war ends soon, many of the wells have already been capped. Getting back to normal is a year away.
Prices are only going one way.

Quick fag packet calculation on the extra government income from the recent increases in diesel price to non business private customers (Putting the 53p per litre of duty aside - as that number is a flat rate and they always get that and quantities of diesel used remain relatively stable.)

So let's just concentrate on the VAT tax take.

The average price of diesel in 2026 (post Trump deciding to give Iran a spanking) was £1.40 per litre. So the government were making an income of around 0.28p per litre of that in VAT.

Skip forward to yesterday and average price of diesel was £1.82 per litre. So the government were making an income of 0.38p per litre in VAT yesterday. Prices are set to rise a lot further too.

Thats a 36% increase in VAT income from private diesel car drivers !!

The average car tank hold 60 litres of fuel. So prior to the Iran conflict every time a tank was filled the government took around £16.80 in VAT.

Yesterday that VAT income on filling a tank rose to £22.80 !

If you add the 0.53p of duty also taken - the total tax given to the government per tank (excluding road tax) has reached an absolutely staggering £54.30 from every private diesel car driver.

In comparison - I charge my electric car at night at the cheap rate. To fill the battery and get a range of 350 miles costs me a total of £4.55. Of that the government takes a VAT rate of 5%. So they get a grand total of about 0.23p.

God bless Elon Musk.

But why isn’t the extra tax receipt from selling it a factor? Prices go up and at least we’d get a bump in receipts. Plus not having to transport it so far.

Isn’t this like the Nick Clegg argument, nuclear takes too long. But then we move past the year we would have had extra energy and it seems s waste.

We’ll need it in 3 to 10 years (3 for adjacent sites apparently).

Umm but we do use fuel ?
We use a car to get to work etc.?
So we won't use it anymore than normal.
I wonder why this doesn't affect other counties .

There is no increased energy security to drilling in the North Sea. It's not "our" fuel. We didn't do what Norway did and set up a Sovereign wealth fund.

Even Trump's claims that this don't impact the US are BS. Fuel prices are shooting up there too. Why? Because it's all sold on the global market.

Also it's most important to point out that the North Sea ("our" bit of it anyway) is pretty depleted. Do you know how much gas was produced by new licences issued by the Tories? 36 days worth.

Just One Month's Gas Supply From 14 Years of Licensing by Previous Government - Blogpost from Uplift (News)

Sure there's more oil but it won't solve the issue. What's more is Trump is so unstable, you can't rely on fuel from the US either so we need alternatives.

One alternative could and should be those near to wind farms being given free electricity at points of high production. We currently don't have the grid capacity nor storage to take it away and often pay to turn it off or pay for other countries to take it off our hands. Storage methods are coming but at points of high generation to increase demand, especially locally could be really helpful.

Octopus man said we should drill as temporary measures to help ease supply but costs won't go down because the cost is set globally.
He said it's not green to ship stuff in

It's affecting loads of other countries. Across Asia weeks ago staff were moved to hybrid working, told to wear lighter clothing so air con could be reduced.

We are particularly dependent on gas as a nation for heating and cooking which makes us more vulnerable and also have very low gas storage for our usage. We also have a lot of rural communities who have oil based heating. Lastly we also rely on a lot of imports because, apart from food and pharmaceuticals, we are largely a service based economy. Imports are being badly hit through fuel costs, disruption to shipping and disruption to air travel.

North Sea drilling is a far worse and more expensive way to try to create fuel security

wind power would be cheaper and longer lasting

The tax revenues, jobs and lower transport costs are correct in that post.

I've just read on X that our beloved leader Sir Keir will be addressing the nation today so he might mention possible fuel rationing.

I was in hospital yesterday and the nurse told me they have stopped doing certain tests and are running out of certain medication

@Freysimo yes he might...I wonder if it's to reassure us that nothing is happening here !
Or maybe something is happening and those with the broadest shoulders will be carrying it all.