To think the Green Party and esp its Deputy Leader is a real worry for women

[CraftyTaupeBee]

Over the last few months I have watched with incredulity the rise of the Green Party in the polls and wondered if I am alone in this. Mothin Ali their Deputy publicly celebrated Oct 7th (which he then apologised for) and has been seen this week at an event mourning the death of the Ayatollah. I am not anti any religion but his wife is fully covered in a niqab and I feel despite what others say to have a woman's face fully covered is a tool of oppression and not something I would want in a leader as a value set. I realise others may not feel this way and it is not meant to be offensive but the facts are there.And recently a female spin doctor for the Greens alleged that rape had not taken place on Oct 7th. To me the Green Party is reminiscent of what happened in 1979 and something that ultimately affected women's rights drastically (as well as any other rights of the gay community and others). The soft left (much like the Greens) allowed the strict islamic vote to take hold and look where they ended up. This really worries me for the country. Am I the only one? And why does the Green Party seem to be so anti west and anti white. I realise Zack Polanksi is gay and jewish and they are strange bedfellows but it feels like a trojan horse mindset and not something I want for my western liberal feminist girls. In fact it feels anti feminist?

We’re mortgaged up to our eyeballs. Zack Polanski thinks we can borrow more. The bond markets think he’s insane. This would not end at all well for Britain.

It worked fine?

Rationing didn't stop until 1954, everything that could be exported was exported and there was hard austerity on in order to pay back the war debt.

You have also missed the joke in my description of their policy, which like their policy itself is economically incoherent.

@Skinnysalukido you think we can borrow more?

That's the thing. As a Black woman of not very rich beginnings, I have so many things to worry about before I worry about whether the mannish looking person in a skirt in my toilets is actually female. That is the case for many of us. This doesn't even touch the top 10.

You must see that not only are most trans people are white. You also see that the people most angry and worried about trans people are also majority white. The biggest non-trans trans rights supporters are also majority white.

This isnt coincidence. It shows that for some people, this is their biggest problem because they don't have more pressing or prevalent issues that seriously affect their lives. A man in a skirt being in their toilet is the biggest threat to their everyday life. Which is a blessed life to lead from my perspective.

As a woman from a very poor background I have had lots of things to worry about too. I'll say no more about that.
I've actually dealt with men who think they are women in my work. And 2 of them were beyond aggressive. I always dealt with them in a secure interview room with plate glass between us. It was clear to me that they had some other undiagnosed mental health issues, as no one should have flipped the way they did. They behaved like typical aggressive, bullying men. And we are lead to believe that they are so sweet and misunderstood. Not my experience. Men don't change personalty by putting on a dress, in fact I wonder if the hormones don't worsen any defects they have, or if they feel emboldened because complete mugs consider them to be oppressed. I don't know, but I can say I want men to not be in female spaces, however they identify or dress.

Are trans women 5 times more likely to be sexual predators than cis men?

No — there is no credible evidence that trans women are “5× more likely to be sexual predators than cis men.” That claim is a misinterpretation or misuse of statistics, usually from small or inappropriate datasets.

Here’s what research actually shows.

1. There is no solid evidence that trans women offend at higher rates than cis men

The statistic often comes from misinterpreting a 2011 Swedish cohort study of people who had gender-affirming surgery.

The study found that trans women had higher conviction rates than cis women, but not higher than cis men.

In other words, their conviction rate looked similar to other people assigned male at birth, not dramatically higher.

When the researchers split the data by time period:

For people transitioning 1989–2003, there was no increased risk of crime or violent crime compared with controls.

The lead researcher has repeatedly said the study is often misrepresented when used to claim trans women are more likely to commit sexual assault.

1. “5× more likely” claims usually come from misleading prison statistics

Some viral claims use prison populations (e.g., comparing the proportion of prisoners who are sex offenders).

Problems with this approach:

Tiny sample sizes of transgender prisoners can produce unstable ratios.

Prison populations are not representative of the general population.

Rates depend heavily on how gender identity is recorded in prison data.

Because the transgender population is small, even a few cases can dramatically distort percentages.

1. Research more consistently shows the opposite pattern: higher victimization

Many studies find transgender people are more likely to be victims of violence, not perpetrators.

A large analysis of U.S. crime survey data found transgender people were over four times more likely to experience violent victimization than cisgender people.

This includes assault and sexual violence.

✅ Bottom line

There is no reliable evidence that trans women are 5× more likely (or even more likely) than cis men to commit sexual offenses.

The claim typically comes from misinterpreted studies or misleading prison statistics.

Existing research does not support the idea that trans women pose a higher risk of sexual violence than cis men.

If you want, I can also show you exactly where the “5×” number comes from and walk through why the calculation is wrong (it’s a good example of how statistics get distorted online).

Yes please

The “5× more likely” claim usually traces back to misinterpreting UK prison statistics, particularly data released by the UK Ministry of Justice about transgender prisoners. Let’s walk through how that number appears and why it’s misleading.

1. The original data: a very small group

A widely cited dataset (from around 2019) reported roughly:

≈125 transgender prisoners in England and Wales

≈60 of them convicted of sexual offences

That gives about 48%.

By comparison:

About 19–20% of the overall male prison population were imprisoned for sexual offences.

So some commentators did this calculation:

48
%
÷
20
%
≈
2.4
48%÷20%≈2.4
Others compared it to the general population rate of sexual offending, which is far lower, producing much larger ratios like “5×” or more.

But this comparison is flawed.

1. Prison populations are not the general population

The statistic compares:

A tiny subgroup of prisoners (trans prisoners)

The entire population outside prison

This is not a valid comparison because:

Prison populations already contain people convicted of crimes, so the baseline risk is totally different.

The relevant comparison would be trans people in the general population vs cis people in the general population — data we generally do not have.

1. Small numbers exaggerate percentages

When the sample is tiny, a few cases change the percentage dramatically.

Example:

If 60 out of 125 prisoners are sex offenders → 48%

If it were 50 out of 125 → 40%

If 40 out of 125 → 32%

Just 20 cases difference changes the rate massively, which makes ratios like “5×” statistically unstable.

1. The data mixes very different groups

The prison dataset includes people who:

Identify as transgender

Are at different stages of transition

May be counted based on self-identification or prison records

It also includes both trans women and trans men, but many claims online treat it as if it refers only to trans women.

1. The statistic ignores age and sentencing effects

Sex-offence sentences are often longer, meaning those prisoners stay in prison longer.

That means sex offenders can become overrepresented in prison snapshots, even if they are not more common among offenders overall.

✅ Why the “5×” claim is misleading

The claim results from:

Using prison data instead of population crime rates

Very small sample sizes

Mixing different transgender categories

Ignoring sentencing length and demographic differences

Because of these issues, criminologists generally say the data cannot be used to estimate sexual-offending risk among trans women in the general population.

That’s interesting because he’s the exact age of my husband and they have a the exact same story. As matrimonial. So Zack would be third gen from his GP coming over and technically he is Jewish. But no way would my husband declare himself Jewish. Even though he knows he is technically both ethically jewish and religiously through matrimonial Jewish.
My husband has the same background, and was brought up actively atheist, so culturally not Jewish and really only Jewish according to Judaism, which he doesn't believe in or practice. I have questioned him about it as it's only since he's got involved in Hard Left politics that he has started saying he's Jewish. I mean he is Jewish and his DNA says he's Jewish but in all the ways that matters I would say he isn't.

No it isn't. You may have read of the attempted bomb attack in New York three days ago.

The muslims who threw the explosive devices were reported as having shouted that phrase as they threw the devices towards the crowd and police officers.

The phrase was used by the killers of Lee Rigby and also by the attackers in the Paris Bataclan incident and many others as well.

It is never reported that terrorists have used a Christian equivalent phrase.

You may have more important things to worry about but others haven’t and will indeed vote with their feet on this matter. The biggest issue in my sister’s general area - travellers. Address them and you’ll win votes. My parents - dog dirt. For so so many women it’s the expectation that we hand all of our hard fought for rights over to men.

I absolutely believe the trans matter was a key issue in the US elections too. “Kamala is for they / them. I’m for you”, lost the democrats the election, and will lose the democrats the next election too if they don’t wise up.

What’s a ‘cis man’? Do you mean men? And if trans women (ie men) offend at the same rate as other men, why should they get into women’s single sex spaces when men aren’t allowed in due to their rates of conviction?

Yes, see also Nicola Sturgeon.

I dont know much about US politics because I largely don't care about the US

I do have more important things to worry about. I am aware many people do not.

It really isnt so so so many women. Most women don't care very much or support trans people entirely

Research is likely to be titled trans vs cis. It is the academic term used in these studies and so was necessary to make the search relevant to what I wanted.

The majority don’t want men, however they identify, in their single sex spaces and sports.

"The study found that trans women had higher conviction rates than cis women, but not higher than cis men."

I think that depends on the poll and where it was taken.

It’s not just women actually it’s men too. I was speaking to a male professor in biological sciences the other night in the pub and he flatly refused to vote for anyone who wanted him to go along with the construct of gender, when science is 100% determined on the notion that you have a male and a female and they are totally different species. If they lie to you about that, what else are they going to lie to you about etc etc.

So why should women be made to share their single sex spaces with them? Why the hell would anyone want to force that on women? It’s disgusting.

Was he white?

I am just correcting your assertion that trans women have the same offending rates as men.

They do. The retain the same offending patterns -

‘Studies on offending patterns, particularly from Sweden, indicate that trans women (male-to-female) often retain a male pattern of criminal offending, showing no statistically significant difference from natal males in general or violent crime conviction rates. Data suggests they are more likely to be convicted of offenses than cisgender women.
UK Parliament
+1’

If your search includes ‘cis’ you’re going to get skewed, biased results.

YouGov polling begs to differ:

https://sex-matters.org/posts/single-sex-services/poll-shows-support-for-sex-meaning-sex-in-equality-act/

Most women don’t want to share single sex spaces with men, and the women who support men in women’s spaces if falling over time.

The grift is over, thank goodness.

Abosolute nonsense. I did the same search omitting cis and got the same spiel referring to the same studies. Is this the silliness you tell each other on here so you can ignore research that disagrees with you?

Their problem is that they have absolutely no idea how to turn that hope into an economical reality.
"We'll take all the money we need off the rich and borrow the rest" really doesn't hack it as an economic policy.
Not to mention that after they have left NATO, persuaded there rest of Europe to leave NATO and join up with Brazil, Mexico and some other random countries he is going to have to spend a shit ton on defence, because Brazil, Mexico and a load of extremely poor countries in Africa will be expecting to be protected from aggression from presumably America. Because of course by then he'd have persuaded Putin and the Ayatollahs to hand in all their nuclear weapons.