To think that everyone is getting far too excited about this Green win?

[DangerQuakeRhinoSnake]

All this fuss about one Green win - I really don't think it's massively significant given the local demographic and the upcoming local elections will be the real test.

As if the Greens are going to get anywhere near power! Not going to happen.

And local elections are not necessarily indicative of general election voting intention.

On the contrary, I step outside my front door every day, visit London at least once a month and was on holiday in the north last week. Maybe you don’t leave Luton very often?

Yeah, the big thing about the demographics of the area is it's full of your "traditional working class disaffected Labour" voters. They are the people who are supposed to be shifting to Reform. But even though Reform threw everything they had at the election they didn't really win those votes. It does look the majority of Tory voters shifted to them. And likely some from Labour but not enough to make a difference. Instead there was a big shift from Labour to the Greens.
Reform are blaming "the Muslim vote" for their loss but if anything I think Muslims voters (not a solid block) had more impact on Labours loss to the Greens than Reforms loss. If you want to break things down into crude demographics Reform lost because they didn't get enough white working class votes in an area with a very large white working class population. And that is embarrassing for them so I can see why they are trying to deflect.

I don't think you can assume it will transfer over into a Green success in the GE. It's too early to say. It does make the Greens look viable as a potential option in contested areas though so it's definitely a boost for them.

They are shifting to Reform. If you look at electoral analysis it shows where the votes are going ftom
Labour in each council by-election.

Not all are, but most are shedding from Labour to Reform.

But they’re not in G&D - the evidence is there right in front of your eyes.

And the polls show the Tories’ share of the vote shrinking far more than any other party, that where the Reform support is coming from.

Yes, my point is that was a pattern and I don't think Reform were wrong to infer that it would translate into a Labour to Reform shift at the By-election. It didn't and that's why it's interesting. Whether this was a one off (Godwin is I think less likeable than Spencer) or the start of a new trend remains to be seen. But its significant because it breaks an emerging pattern and creates a new narrative.

I think i would look quite cute in a burka....

Some good points made, other things to throw in the mix is the start up of other parties on the right, diluting the vote, and the novelty is wearing off reform, check out some recent polls, I think they have made several political errors recently...

Diluting the vote is possibly going to be a problem. I thought it would be in Gorton and Denton but Advance UK got less votes than the Monster Raving Loonies so I was wrong.