Your question is disingenuous. I can’t possibly know the ins and outs. None of us can.
Also, the ‘probability’ in your question is loaded - you aren’t talking pure statistics, because there are other factors that influence it. The current Lucy Letby situation is a great example of where this can go very wrong very quickly.
Am I aware that people in very visible positions of power can do horrible things? Absolutely. Am I also aware there are people who want to accuse people in power of horrible things they didn’t do? Yes. Am I aware of a snowball effect? Also yes.
As things stands, I can’t know. Neither can you. Politics is a super grubby game. I’ve only worked at local levels and if voters knew the absolute trash people talk at each other behind the scenes, and the lengths some go to in order to discredit others (what you see played out in the media is a tiny tip of the iceberg), I think they’d be shocked.
So, in conclusion, it’s not black and white as it stands. You’re trying to make it black and white. Mostly, the world exists in grey.