To think this is why Reform will win the next election “Epping hotel asylum seeker mistakenly released”

[SingleSexSpacesInSchools]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2d5rl36vgo

Police have launched a manhunt after a former asylum seeker who sexually assaulted a 14-year-old girl was mistakenly released from prison.
Ethiopian national Hadush Kebatu, who arrived in the UK on a small boat, was jailed for 12 months over the attack in Epping, Essex, last month.

I rest my case. Why lie about it?

Well if labour don't get a grip , reform will be in next time .
I heard yesterday there are 20000 refugees that they can't find homes for while they are waiting for alyslum claim to go through

Any evidence that what you heard is correct?

Over 2 million Brits left the UK after the war, mostly to Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa. And the $3.3Bn of Marshall Plan funding that we got given by the US, more than any other country, probably helped a bit in reconstruction.

I thought the marshal plan funding was a loan and not a gift.

You’re thinking of lend-lease. Marshall Plan was straight relief funding and not paid back. Unfortunately while Germany and Japan spent theirs on rebuilding and modernising their industrial base, we spent ours on propping up our rapidly crumbling empire, which set the stage for the UK’s inability to compete in manufacturing from the mid-60s onwards.

I wouldn't be so sure of that.

There have been two national by-elections since the GE. Reform were successful in one, but only by six votes. Farage threw everything he had at the other. Money, disinformation, bots, his fragrant self. No cigar.

There were also 7 council by elections last week, of which 3 were an LD gain and only 1 a reform gain (the rest were holds by the incumbent). People are voting tactically.

A 34.2 swing. The opposite for Labour.

If any party says they’d be unhappy with that swing they’d be lying.

Speaking of misinformation and pre GE bots and SM activity we have this

Labour's manifesto is, "fully funded and fully costed - no ifs, no ands, no buts… no additional tax rises."

"I have been very clear that every policy we announce, and every line in our manifesto, will be fully costed and fully funded."

“Nothing in our plans requires any additional tax to be increased.”

“We’ve got the Office for Budget Responsibility now… You don’t need to win an election to find out [about the public finances].”

“I don’t believe that fiddling around with tax rates is the best way to grow the economy.”

I am talking about Reform's chances at the next GE not Labour's. Stating that I don't think Reform will win is not the same as saying I think Labour will.

I am a member of Plaid Cymru, btw, and am absolutely delighted with their 19 point swing in Caerphilly. I am hoping they win in May.

Who knows, but a 34.2 swing is huge and if applied elsewhere could get a different result to Caerphilly.

They were second in a few Labour constituencies for a start.

To return to the original post, 262 prisoners were mistakenly released in the year to March 2025, a 118% increase on the year before. Yet out our focus is on this one - albeit high profile - case. The fact that he's a migrant makes headlines, of course. But how do Reform propose to deal with overcrowding and under-staffing in our prisons? Because that's the real question, isn't it? Nobody should be getting mistakenly released, migrant or UK native. This is a convenient headline for Reform, nothing more than that. They're essentially a single issue party that is clueless about the plethora of other issues the UK faces. 'Solving' immigration will not make the UK a better place in which to live and work. And before anyone says "yes but there are more immigrants in prison than before, so they're the cause of the overcrowding", the proportion of immigrants in UK prisons has held steady at 11-12% in the past decade.

I dunno. That particular photo smacks of nationalism. Farage will be hoping for more of that at the general election.

I agree that the 34.2 percent swing is huge. But to achieve that sort of swing and still not win demonstrates the enormous difficulties Reform will have if the tactical voting that happened in Caerphilly is replicated across the UK in a Westmister GE.

Not really. Who can get the vote PC did?

Who is polling close to 30% bar Reform?

I'm not a huge fan of Reform but on the other hand I can totally see the left running the country right into the ground and then just throwing up their hands and saying "oh well, not much we could do to fix 14 years of the Tories, eh?"

And maybe they're right, but that doesn't mean that making things twice as shit as they might've been is the answer. I'd rather have crap than twice as crap!

I just find a lot of lefties to be too dithering and idealistic. All this guff about "oh, but they're fleeing from war torn countries. We've got to help them all."

And meanwhile, the last war in Albania was almost 30 years ago....

There is zero chance of Reform winning the next election. Their supporters will have come to their senses about the extreme views and extreme incompetence.

I hope you’re correct @Murdoch1949 but the steaming dollops of incompetence being served up by the current clown show cabinet is not a favourable comparison. Like it or not, Farage is more of a charismatic leader than Oinky, even though we all know he’ll make a disastrous PM.

I didn't think the electorate would be stupid enough to vote for Brexit, and yet they did. They seem to have learnt nothing from that shitshow, so I have little faith in them coming to their senses.

That said, I'm not convinced that Farage actually wants to be PM, so perhaps he will look for a way out.

This comment will age like milk.

Both Labour and Tories are extremely incompetent, and both have extreme views that are not shared by the majority of the public at this point. It’s an extreme view to believe that the UK is coping with current levels of immigration, and that the public will have to accept such high levels going forward into the future - they just won’t. Mass immigration and multiculturalism has been a failure - David Cameron said it himself. It’s madness to continue in this failing experiment, but Labour will continue with it for ideological reasons.

Tories and Labour are two sides of the same coin. Both have been tried, and found wanting. The only option left now is Reform.

Who do you think will win?

Interesting choice of examples for 'normal countries'...

Australia is a ‘normal country’ and manages it.

The Appeal of Reform.....

"How's your kid's physiotherapy going?"

"Not that great. Been three times and not much improvement."

"There's a bloke at my pub who says physiotherapists are useless."

"Oh - is he a physiotherapist himself?"

"No. Not sure what he is, really. But he likes a pint."

"And he reckons physiotherapists are useless? The one we've got for Audrey at the moment doesn't seem to be doing much. She's always achey after a treatment."

"You should let the bloke at the pub have a go."

"Yeah - can't do any worse than the current one, can he?"

"Gotta try something new for little Audrey's sake. His name's Nigel. I'll give you his number."