To think there is some kind of weird push towards the far right?

[Checkcheckout]

I’m the first to admit that I am not the best informed - I prefer to keep my life stress free and simple as much as possible, and don’t have a TV, don’t read papers, and only listen to the radio when I’m driving (which is quite often). For my own mental health I prefer to live in my own little bubble.

But even with my limited exposure to media, I’ve noticed on Radio 2, both on the news and Jeremy Vine’s show, Reform are being given so much air time considering their paltry amount of MPs, the polls are being discussed regularly even though we’re years from an election. More than once listening to the radio I’ve thought the way they’re talking makes it sound like Reform winning the next election is a done deal, and thought to myself that this is how self fulfilling prophecies happen.

My algorithms on FB are seriously messed up. Despite having never been remotely interested in anything in the least bit right wing, all of a sudden I’m getting endless posts from knuckle dragging ‘patriot’ groups that I don’t even follow, with really horrendous and openly racist comments, thousands of them, which somehow FB are allowing to remain even though any kind of hate speech has always been censored on there. Why are these posts suddenly being allowed and pushed in my face?

Alongside this there seems to be a new story pretty much every day about the latest scandal involving Labour (again reported by the BBC), ok these things aren’t great although compared to the Tories’ rap list from their last spell in government, are fairly small fry really. It seems like there’s an active push for people to rebel away from the left just as the far right are gaining momentum.

Has anyone else noticed this or am I talking shite?

But exactly that - many people don’t want the Conservatives and they don’t want Labour either because that would be more of the same. The greens, libdems and the new poncy party that Corbyn will be trying to thrust upon us doesn’t appeal either.

We’re trying to make some type of excuse for you, but perhaps you’re right, and there is none.

By the way, listening works both ways.

I see today Maria Caulfield has defected to Reform today.

She was a Tory MP during the period of these cuts to health services – indeed Minister of State for Health at one point.

The people who spent more than a decade causing the service declines everyone is rightfully complaining about, are now busily populating Reform.

It is a problem though. As a percentage of his income, Rishi Sunak - a millionaire, and just as an example - pays less than the average person, as the majority of his taxes are capital gains, which means he's paying a lower rate of tax than a high rate income tax. If you're rich enough to afford a good accountant, you end up dumping the tax burden onto people who are a lot less capable than you of shouldering it. The argument is always 'otherwise they'd just leave' but that's just a way of shrugging shoulders at massive and unfair tax inequality.

Wasn't she Minister for Women at one point? She'll be right at home in the party where one of their four (now five) MPs has a conviction for beating up his girlfriend, then!

What do you think would be different about Reform?

Explain it to me like I'm [more] stupid.

Lots of people genuinely adopted the belief that trans women are women, including celebrities, journalists, politicians, activists and lobbyists. As a result, laws & policies were changed across many organisations to give the rights to some males to be in womens sports, prisons, changing rooms etc etc etc. This is all real right? So far this can have little to do with Russian interference can it?

When women began to object, several were fired or discriminated against at work. (Maya Forstater, Jo Phoenix etc etc). Women were also kicked out of British political parties (the lib dems and the greens IIRC). Again, its not plausible to me that foreign interference could have had much impact on these factual events.

These events were unjust so triggered a backlash, and you could claim that here Russian bots amplified the news of such cases and highlighted for example Maya Forstater's case to build her support. But if they did, and as far as I know, there is no evidence that they did - So what? She was right.

I suppose my overall question is, if we believed Russians manipulated the gender debate, what worse situation are we in now than if they hadn't?

If that's what you're seeing, you're clearly following the wrong people. If you are left leaning politically, your social media algorithm with flag up negative 'right' rhetoric. That's how it works.

Attendance estimates for Saturday's 'far right' rally are now coming out at around 3 million. How many arrests? 25!
That's in stark contrast to a family event like this year's Notting Hill Carnival. How many arrests? 423!

Don't know about you but I know which event I'd be more 'afraid' to attend.

Look, at the end of the day, the left can keep going with this 'facist', 'racist' rhetoric... then they can all scratch their heads when we have a Reform govt wondering: 'How on earth did that happen!?'
Might want to start listening.

The far left never learn. And more worryingly, they are making things worse for minorities by labelling people far right when they are just ordinary people.

The audacity!

There were not 3 million people at that rally. That's a false claim made up by old Tommy himself. The official estimate from the Met police put max attendance at 150,000.

London's infrastructure would have collapsed if that many people descended on it all at once. And it didn't.

If you have to lie to back up what you're saying, you're saying the wrong things.

The right haven’t haven’t been in politics for a long time.

The Tories weren't even centre right. Trying to pass mild welfare reforms and making a bit of noise about reducing illegal immigration while doing nothing to address it do not make a government centre right.

OP, I think you are seeing the Overton Window shift to the right. Social attitudes swing like a pendulum. With corrections and over corrections. It’s not a one-way ratchet.

The fact you think this just shows how far the Overton Window has been dragged to the right.

Yes. It's all being engineered by US interests.

And when I say 'US' I mean MAGA...

Interesting, especially the part about interference with polls.

I'm donning my conspiracy hat for a moment but, I wonder if there's any connection between Russian bot farms, Reform leading in the polls and Reform refusing to call a by-election for Kruger's deflection.

I mean, I know they don't have to call one, but you'd think if they were confident the public polls reflect reality they'd jump at the chance of having their new MP re-elected with a thumping majority.

Except that's an arguement the uber wealthy use as a scare tactic.

If they want to go, then fine - Labour have removed the non-dom perks already - which despite dire warnings have not led to a mass exodus.

You need to look at where the wealth comes from - which is largely UK property and business. Combine the higher rate tax with the removal of honors (an awful lot seem to be Lords and Sirs), limits on property ownership for non-Uk tax payers, limits on access to UK government contracts and introduce a system like the US where even if you are resident and paying tax elsewhere, you have to pay tax to maintain your residency, you will find that far fewer actually leave than threaten it.

Access to UK for business purposes is far too lucrative.

Like this one.

We've listen ad nauseam. You're unhappy that standards of living, public services and public infrastructure has declined while the cost of living has increased.

You blame migration, the EU and 'the left' for this, not austerity and increasing wealth inequality (the actual causes).

You opposed any and all attempts at addressing the root causes and want to remove everyone's human rights so you can punish your scapegoat(s).

Out of interest, once Reform get in and, just like their MAGA counterparts, fail to make life better for the average person, who will you blame?

Ps no credible outlet has put out an estimate of more than 150,000 at the march.

This is all real right? Right.

So far this can have little to do with Russian interference can it? Wrong.

Look back to the previous step.

HOW did this TRA-ism suddenly come about that, out of almost nowhere? It just blew right up in the course of a very few years. It was really odd.

And it was really odd activism. Although clothed in the garb of "rights for all" – an excellent hook to grab genuine, well-meaning people – it leapt straight to bizarre extremes.

We can see this very well in the reception of JK Rowling's excellent statement supporting trans people's rights, just not at the expense of everyone else's rights where these conflicted. That should have been easy to agree with: balancing of rights is something we (used to) do every day. Instead she became the target of hate storms.

MN's FWR board has done a very good job of identifying that a lot of the influence is coming through social media. One side of that is the grooming of children into believing that transitioning offers them a way out of whatever feelings they're suffering (it's been well-explored on FWR that abuse or autism seem to be present in many young transitioners).

The other side of it is the raising of Twitter storms against anyone who objects. Very noisy attacks which get taken up in real-life by real people.

But all of this anonymous social media stuff can be started by anyone, anywhere. And it doesn't have to be Russian.

A few years ago there was an exposé of Cambridge Analytica offering influencer services to an undercover reporter whom they thought was a politician. The Cambridge Analytica guy gets caught on camera explaining in detail how people won't believe eg a smear if they can see it's coming from a someone they can see has a vested interest. But if it appears to be coming from their "friends" – even internet "friends" – they are much more likely to believe it.

The phrase he used was "pushing the story out into the bloodstream of the internet". Using anonymity to get it started and allowing quite genuine users to run with it up.

Cambridge Analytica getting caught on camera is why we know about that one.

The Blake Lively vs Justine Baldoni case been another recent example where an influence operation got caught discussing the nuts and bolts of pushing out a message on social media and trad media, and celebrating the fact that the real life people had picked it up and run much further with it than the agency imagined it. In that example, the PR agency emails and comms became part of the court case.

These are just a few who have been spectacularly outed. Unfortunately, this stuff is now endemic.

I should say I really can't guess whether the kick off of crazy TRA-ism originated from Russia (although doubtless they'll have helped turn up the gas once they saw it emerging as issue). It just as likely came from some other actor which saw it as a useful wedge issue.

72% of the UK public think immigration has been too high. The UK public have rights too. They have the right to determine the future of the democracy they live in.

You are not going to get an election winning platform on anything other than dealing with that, and the low economic growth. It’s the number one issue.

I suppose my overall question is, if we believed Russians manipulated the gender debate, what worse situation are we in now than if they hadn't?

Dealing with just the last part of your post and making the supposition that Russia did manipulate the gender debate...

Changing the question around a little: "What better situation is Russia in now than if they hadn't?"

Well, they have a US President in the White House who has been defending Putin, blaming Ukraine for being invaded by Russia, and repeatedly stop-started military aid to Ukraine.

This President repeatedly reduces or threatens reducing US involvement in NATO.

And according to a lot of people on MN, gender-ID issues were a major issued in getting this President got into the White House, supported by people to whom he is otherwise anathema.

So the motivation for Russia to get involved is obvious.

Look at the aerial shots... the crowd goes on for MILES. There is absolutely no WAY that is only 150,000 people. The media want people to think it's a fringe movement. It isn't.

I notice you haven't acknowledged that there were only 25 arrests - that's quite remarkable for a 'racist, facist rally attended by hooligans, whose sole purpose is to create division and hate.'

Shall I tell you what I've seen/read about the UTK: content from YouTubers like Shady Shae and Tommy Singh describing why they're proud to British; a Ghanaian dressed head to toe in full Union Jack regalia, the gospel choir closing out the rally to Jerusalem, a Jewish man in the thick of the crowd proudly wearing a kippah, to name just a few things.

THESE things are what Unite the Kingdom was about.

I'm sorry, I don't know if I've managed to answer your questions very well.

I suppose the TL;DR is, yes lots of completely genuine real-life people involved in very genuine real-life situations.

But being lured or forced to throw all their energies into playing a particular game chosen by a covert external actor, on a playing field chosen by the covert external actor.

That's modern influence operations for you.