To think the time is coming when a universal basic income is seen as a necessity?

[DoubtfulCat]

AI is replacing a lot of jobs which were previously highly specialised- like translation- as well as entry-level jobs into careers like law. Because the jobs which are hardest to automate seem to be those which are currently either very well paid (like senior managers, politicians, etc) or those at the lowest pay level (like care work, for example) it seems as if more and more people who would once have been gainfully employed will increasingly be competing for a shrinking pool of jobs with half-decent pay, and for those manual jobs. I see a rise in people with no job at all and a huge fall in people earning ‘professional’ salaries and following a reasonable career path. The knock-on would be falling private pension provision, falling savings, rising personal debt, and so on. Increasing hardship and wealth gap between those with and those without.

Do you think that a form of UBI would help to solve that problem?

• more people could work fewer hours each, so more people could have a job which often gives people a purpose in life
• hardship would be mitigated- no-one would be destitute or unable to feed themselves
• people might use their time on creative projects or things that are good for their health and well-being, if they have some breathing space around struggling to survive

I mentioned this in a post above. It’s already happening in chambers I know of, they are already reducing numbers of recruits. It’s a job you learn by climbing the rungs and doing the basic work, you don’t and can’t just walk in on day one as a barrister, you may have a degree but ultimately you learn it on the job.
If the juniors aren’t being recruited and trained, what job will they go into and where will the future barristers come from?

So am I. I also see the reduction in new recruits. However, instead of corporations worrying about where will barristers come from, the capitalistic view is we'll deal with the fallout from cost cutting when the time comes, usually at the clients' expense, just like in any other industry. I got my LLM and am now more in an advisory capacity in another EU country, reviewing emerging issues that affect corporate governance and data privacy rules, and I find the trajectory to be troubling.

I meant to say "so do I".

Or maybe they see the lack of jobs, and signing up for a degree means they know what they’re doing for the next 3-4 years?

Kicking the can down the road and hopefully improving their chances with a degree

you mean they are treating it like governments treat 4 year elections?
Dont worry about 10 years time you might not be in power so it will be someone else’s problem

Increased use of AI will create a lot more jobs than it replaces. Older people will need to show some initiative and upskill/retrain and younger ones will need to consider their future career plans more carefully.

But to find that, companies that automate jobs would need to pay a special tax, and we all know the government won't tax big corporations...

My only issue with a UBI is that it will push prices up as businesses of all types then "know" that there is a basic level of funding and will charge accordingly for their goods and services.

This is one of the problems that firms will have to address and plan for. Rather than not taking on recruits, they'll have to balance the numbers and take on fewer recruits so there's still the flow of people coming through.

Same happened with accountancy firms during covid who didn't take on graduates which then caught them out one and two years later as there wasn't the same number of 1 and 2 year experienced staff coming through to do the 1/2 year level work when the years 2 needed to be moved up to do year 3 work so lots of levels were "held back" as they couldn't progress due to leaving a vacuum behind them.

It's all perfectly solvable but firms need to actually plan for it. In my son's firm (one of the UK biggest insurance firms), he and the other graduates barely have anything to do and enjoy very generous study leave packages, allowances to spend time doing local voluntary/charity work, giving talks in schools, attending career fairs, etc. He reckons he does about the equivalent of 2 full days of working per week despite being "full time". The firm are clear and honest that they want a "flow" of staff coming through and are happy for them to take several years to qualify whilst getting acquainted with the firm's systems and ethos and values, and only really expect them to "earn their keep" around years 4/5 onwards. They just want a ready supply of internal candidates ready and able to been thrown into the deep end to replace existing internal actuaries and accountants as they themselves move up the career ladder, retire, emigrate or move to other employers. Yes, potentially an expensive way to do it, but it's their long term plan/vision to recruit at higher levels from within rather than having to pay extortionate rates for freelancers to fill skills gaps etc.

I think the likes of barristers etc will have to do the same if there's going to be a drying up of younger trainees/newly qualified if work dries up for lower levels of work.

It depends whether governments "can" tax big corporations as no single country can dictate the global taxes paid by multinational companies based elsewhere in the World. All the UK can do is tax on what goes on in the UK, i.e. employers NIC on staff wages, VAT on sales values, import duties on imports (which can cause retaliation from other countries and harm us in the long run), special taxes on certain goods sold here, such as petrol, alcohol, tobacco, etc. The taxation of global firms is a massive problem faced by numerous countries all over the World - it needs global agreement which will never happen as the tax haven and "low tax" countries will never give up their tax haven status as it generates huge sums of income for them, unless we nuke or invade them or "bribe" them to stop being tax havens!

And getting loans to cover their costs of living often making it "cheaper" than finding their own house share/flat or whatever. It's really a bit of a no brainer to go and have your own place for 3 years rather than living in your parent's box room, having your freedom to socialise etc., all paid by the taxpayer, and only having to pay it back (or some of it) if you get a relatively well paid job! Who wouldn't??

I really don't think it's down to confidence about the future employment prospects in all cases. Obviously, it is for those wanting to have decent/professional jobs that NEED a degree, but for lots of people, they just "drift" into Uni with no real plans for the future and just do it for "rite of passage" that they don't have to pay for!

I see a move away from uni now, apart from vocational degrees such as veterinary and medicine. Everyone is chasing those elusive apprenticeships.

Might stop some of those Micky mouse degrees. Though I don’t know anyone who went to uni and actually uses their degree or works in the field they trained in at all.

There are plenty of professions where a "relevant" degree is pretty much essential, such as doctors, vets, dentists, architects, etc. Where the degree is pretty much "tailored" to the profession.

Adding in to that is other "mid range" professions such as accountancy, solicitors, etc., where there are further professional exams to take so the subject degree itself is pretty irrelevant as relevant further studying is required to pass the professional exams for that profession, although obviously having an accountancy degree is a "help" for accountancy and having a law degree is a "help" for solicitor, but by no means essential or even recommended really. Lots of accountants, for example, seem to have Music or History degrees but then they have to spend a bit longer to sit more professional exams as they'll get no exemptions as they'll have not done any relevant modules as part of their degree.

Of course, lots of jobs/careers/professions specify a degree as a minimum entry requirement (or at least recommended minimum entry requirement), so even though a "Mickey Mouse" degree may be of no use/help for the job, it's a "door opener" to get through the recruitment/weeding out stages.

Just catching up with the thread.
The issue of off shore accounts being untouchable, surely if UBI was to be a global event - after all AI and the internet don't just happen and change jobs in UK - perhaps this would force them to cough up? Once they realise they are outliers and no more money can come in because everyone will have no £ to spend unless they complete the circle of economy?

Not sure I've thought that through properly but I think there's something there that could potentially hold their feet to the fire.

You'll never get all countries to agree to UBI, just like we'll never get all countries to agree to a global tax system for multinationals.

I can't see how it wouldn't be inflationary. Give everyone a basic income. Most people would still work to improve their position, they would then be able to pay more and have a higher standard of living. Those not working would get essentially squeezed out for resources and living standards would lower, then the basic income would need to raise. We already pretty much give everyone through benefits or minimum wage a base level of income.

It happened with housing benefit if I remember correctly. Landlords started putting the rent up to match the LHA obviously today the rents are well above but back when the dinosaurs (joke before someone bites) were alive and rents were cheap.

I remember hearing mum and her friend once talking about how their landlord had given them a new tenancy at the higher rate to claim more but would be splitting the higher amount.

Yes I was considering how China is still reliant on factory workers for their trade, but for how long? I suspect their infrastructure for AI to man machines is growing fast...

I can see it being a plan the West is keen to apply first, before the countries that tend to be enabling off-shore accounts. I do think it could happen when they do catch up though and realise they have a workforce with no labour left.

But you said it will be difficult for people who have degrees to get jobs based on their education and that they will be competing for self stacking jobs! I'm hoping that these young people are bright enough to see that there is life beyond the next 3 - 4 years and are preparing for that.

Incidentally, where is this lack of jobs? The unemployment rate here hasn't increased hugely in recent years, and is nothing like it was in the early 1990s. It doesn't seem to be that high in the UK either.

Maybe try some positive thinking instead of all this negativity.

Students here generally do live in house share/flats while they are studying, certainly after the first year, and they normally find holiday/evening work as well as study rather than solely relying on the taxpayers money - maybe we are not such an entitled nation. Also, I'm not in the UK, houses generally are larger than in the UK - "box room" isn't even a term I've heard here. Getting a job and moving out gives them the same freedom as going to university surely?

This was what I was thinking.
The self cert mortgages are another example, where people had access to more money, everyone can outbid each other so prices (rental or purchase) rise. So instead of everyone’s bank balance starting at zero, it starts at £1000 (or whatever) but really that’s just the same as it being zero.

This thread is by way of a thought experiment rather than a genuine, heartfelt fear- but there is some evidence- as pp have described- that entry level jobs in areas including law are being replaced by AI; we also know that jobs in graphic design, translation, editing, writing, bookkeeping and other areas are being affected and becoming much harder to find and to earn a living at. Lots of graduates this summer have struggled to find places and firms report offering fewer graduate jobs, so it is a real thing.

Our job market is contracting. Someone else pointed out that we have a bulge of retirees- those jobs haven’t all been replaced- and more and more people are becoming self employed or offered 0-hour contracts, even in teaching and the FE sector, so those won’t show up on unemployment figures even when they aren’t working. So yes, there are fewer jobs and more of the available ones are poorly paid. My question is, how do we manage this situation? Lots of people have scoffed at the idea of UBI, but not suggested anything else- just said how impossible it would be. What else is an option?

I don’t believe that UBI is a bad idea, BUT…

Cynical me thinks that any amount of UBI would be eyed up by utility companies as free money for nothing, and your utility bills would immediately rise to swallow the lot within days of UBI being launched.

There needs to also be a price cap on things like this (essential non-Utility bills), and prices of other non-utility items also need to be overseen by a watchdog to prevent greedy corporations from viewing people’s UBI as easy pickings…