To think the time is coming when a universal basic income is seen as a necessity?

[DoubtfulCat]

AI is replacing a lot of jobs which were previously highly specialised- like translation- as well as entry-level jobs into careers like law. Because the jobs which are hardest to automate seem to be those which are currently either very well paid (like senior managers, politicians, etc) or those at the lowest pay level (like care work, for example) it seems as if more and more people who would once have been gainfully employed will increasingly be competing for a shrinking pool of jobs with half-decent pay, and for those manual jobs. I see a rise in people with no job at all and a huge fall in people earning ‘professional’ salaries and following a reasonable career path. The knock-on would be falling private pension provision, falling savings, rising personal debt, and so on. Increasing hardship and wealth gap between those with and those without.

Do you think that a form of UBI would help to solve that problem?

• more people could work fewer hours each, so more people could have a job which often gives people a purpose in life
• hardship would be mitigated- no-one would be destitute or unable to feed themselves
• people might use their time on creative projects or things that are good for their health and well-being, if they have some breathing space around struggling to survive

People keep thinking the UBI would be set at a level where lots of people wouldn't bother working but seem to miss the point about it being basic income. For example if it was brought in tomorrow in the UK it would be set at around £1000 a month per person but from at the same time ALL housing benefits, disability benefits, NHS access, Universal credit, pensions, SSP, maternity pay, and free nursery hours ect would end. Now a person CAN live on £1000 a month in many parts the UK and if they choose not to work they will survive. The majority of people want more than that and so will continue to work knowing that they've earnt their better standard of living and the benefits that brings and as they are getting the same as everyone else won't resent those that merely choose to exist.

Buts that's no different to today when those some of those who work resent those who live on benefits not contributing. I can't really see how it would be different in practice to what we have today.

I think it will depend on which party is in power. Reform would probably be against it, for obvious reasons, they would see it as giving free money to undeserving people, more left or central governments might be willing to try it.
I believe it will happen at some point.

It will be the downfall of humanity. What will be the point in even living with nothing to hope for, nothing to strive for?

It doesn't do that though does it? People would still be able to work and earn more money. Personally I think it would be more like a major simplification of the benefits system. Give every one enough to eat and live then beyond that let people work for what they want.

Because everyone would have the bare minimum to live on, I think people who are paying for the bare minimum for everyone to live on will be more likely to think' well if they want more than the bare minimum they can do what I do and work. There would be an expectation to work if you want more than that. So I suppose no, there would be no difference to now, it would just cost a shitload more money and leave little for other things.

UBI is a 'thing' on the Right too though, as a way of simplifying the benefits system as said above. Everyone has the basic housing, utilities and food. So no need for anything else unless you work.

Was about to post the same.

I also think that there’s no such thing as ‘a (standard) bare minimum’ . For example, £200000 will buy you a two bedroom house in some places, but only a small flat in other areas. My dc, who lives in Scotland, came home for the weekend, and commented how much petrol was down south. If someone spends all their money on alcohol
and cigarettes, and not on their kids, then the kids could still go hungry. It doesn’t solve the problems that exist today.

How much would the UBI be? And would people on benefits get even more or would that be it?

You can hope and strive for things without work, volunteer, grow food, get outdoors

That would be it. Everyone gets the same and then everyone pays a flat rate of tax on all earnings. The basic income less tax is enough to survive, the more you work the more you get. In many ways I think it is more right wing than left.

I don't think it is human nature that most people would just stop working and live the bare minimum life. Someone might want to go on holiday so would work to earn it, someone might want a nicer house so would work to earn it, someone might want netflix so would work to earn it. Most people would work, that is before considering that most people enjoy work, whether its the social interaction or the intellectual stimulation.

“I don't think it is human nature that most people would just stop working and live the bare minimum life”.

Plenty of people do that already today.

But most people don't

The flat rate of tax is the right wing part of this model.

It's theoretically possible to have a UBI model that still has tax brackets.

I'd be theoretically more in favour of UBI if it came with a flat rate of tax for everyone because that feels more "fair" (to me, I know that's subjective).

That's not what many on this thread are imagining though because they've mentioned things like wealth tax and "it'll be paid for by taxing the super rich".

However the flat tax rate way of doing it runs the risk that too few people choose to go for high enough earning jobs to pay for all the UBI.

I agree most would work, but I'm not sure if many would still aim for promotions etc if the flat rate of tax was too high.

I'm not sure though. People still go for £100k+ jobs even though they fall off a cliff in terms of nursery subsidies etc. And there'd be no tax/benefits cliff in this model. Maybe it'd work

Silverbirchleaf, by the time UBI is needed we won't be basing our economy on house values. Also by the time it is needed the law will have changed so parents who don't step up or neglect their children will be punished.
OonaStubbs. No everyone would get the same, that's the point. For an example At the minute taxpayers will pay housing benefit of £412 for someone who wants to live in London or £103 a week for someone to live in Barnsley. There is no good reason for taxpayers to fund this choice. If people want to live in a better area they should have to work for it. Also having different housing benefits drives up rents due to landlords knowing they are getting subsidised.
MumoftwoNC Most of the UBI models i've seen are based on the state providing less universal services such as the NHS and Welfare. The idea being of people taking more responsibility for their health and retirement planning whist saving the country billions by not having tens of thousands of people processing claims.

“ The idea being of people taking more responsibility for their health and retirement planning whist saving the country billions by not having tens of thousands of people processing claims.”

But I don’t see this happening. Having a UBI system will not miraculously change Wayne and Waynetta from being slobs, eating poorly and smoking into responsible human beings. People already have the opportunity to take care of themselves and there’s enough information out there if they want it, but they don’t.

If it was a flat rate of tax there would be no more disincentive for people to go for the high responsibility, high earning jobs, than for going for the lower paid ones. Currently the system puts massive disincentives for people to move beyond £100k.

Silverbirchleaf, As I said upthread UBI won't happen overnight, it will come after the NHS is reduced and the state gets rid of a lot of statutory duties. Once society sees that they'll have to pay for treatment most will regulate their behaviour better. Also because they're not having to pay directly for services like health and education there is no motivation for them to behave in a civilised way.

How do you plan to do it? They're making their money internationally, so you'd need international corporation to tackle it, which will never happen.

Yes that's why I think the bare minimum would have to be government controlled. So rent controls, food vouchers etc.

I wonder whether having a 20% tax rate for everyone over and above the UBI would work? We have a massively complicated benefits and tax system with taxes and incentives that are so complicated they must cost a fortune to administer. It would be an interesting concept.

That's just way way too low. Realistically to make the total tax the same as it is now, but keep it at a flat rate, the flat rate would have to be quite high (I guess more like 30%). The vast majority of individuals would have a higher tax bill, while a minority of high earners would have a lower tax bill.

That's why you'll never get a majority who would vote for switching to a flat tax rate.