To think the time is coming when a universal basic income is seen as a necessity?

[DoubtfulCat]

AI is replacing a lot of jobs which were previously highly specialised- like translation- as well as entry-level jobs into careers like law. Because the jobs which are hardest to automate seem to be those which are currently either very well paid (like senior managers, politicians, etc) or those at the lowest pay level (like care work, for example) it seems as if more and more people who would once have been gainfully employed will increasingly be competing for a shrinking pool of jobs with half-decent pay, and for those manual jobs. I see a rise in people with no job at all and a huge fall in people earning ‘professional’ salaries and following a reasonable career path. The knock-on would be falling private pension provision, falling savings, rising personal debt, and so on. Increasing hardship and wealth gap between those with and those without.

Do you think that a form of UBI would help to solve that problem?

• more people could work fewer hours each, so more people could have a job which often gives people a purpose in life
• hardship would be mitigated- no-one would be destitute or unable to feed themselves
• people might use their time on creative projects or things that are good for their health and well-being, if they have some breathing space around struggling to survive

I’m sure it would be liberating to have zero financial concerns because the state funded them - but how is this to be funded exactly?

And to what level?

Why? Yes, for the completely physically disabled or people who have to be sectioned for society's safety.

Otherwise, if MH or illness is the barrier to work, there's no reason to increase their money above the UBI, which is regarded as sufficient for the rest of us.

Erm, the daft plan where you turn AI on to the internet?
The ship sailed a while ago.

That's been deliberate. Keep the proletariate bogged down and knackered, seeking small pleasures in football matches and the pub, too stressed and tired to organise and overthrow the powers that reap all the rewards.

No, the daft plan where you put a wealth tax on rich people. It never works. They just leave.

They don't though, they just open off shore accounts.

OK, whichever way, you won't fund a UBI that way. That was my original comment, nothing to do with AI being in other countries.

It would be needed to be funded by the companies benefiting the most of AI like it is Japan. Governments wouldn’t be able to afford this.

So if you had millions, I take it you wouldn't be trading your human employees for AI to make you more millions, then?

We're no.longer talking about the idle poor, we're talking about the jobs there won't be. Not just at lower levels, but increasingly higher up.

The fact is, we may simply not need the people any more. And when we don't, what will happen? A few have more than they'll ever need whilst everyone else lives like Tom and Barbara Good?

I am not saying UBI is the answer, but do you have any thoughts as to what is? How we prepare the next generation for a world which only needs a handful of them to keep it going?

This is said a lot but it’s not that easy to up and leave really when your wealth is tied up all over the country and all your family and connections are here. Some will, most won’t.

I thought sam altman was already investing in making this a reality. Many people are trying to slow down ai now to put some safety in place but obviously they are up against it. when there is money involved and ai is making lots of money who wants to slow down a money maker just to put a little human safety in 😵‍💫

The predictions for Ai and its impact are really scary. Like dystopian novel level scary.

How we prepare the next generation for a world which only needs a handful of them to keep it going?

Because I think this isn't realistic in any way.

People went through the same panic in the 19th century with automation in manufacturing. They panicked that factory workers would become redundant (they did) and those jobs wouldn't be replaced. It's not true, we just ended up improving people's quality of life. people still worked in manufacturing afterwards but their jobs were better, like mechanics, engineers etc.

Similarly look at revolutions in farming. Farmers haven't vanished, they're just using combine harvesters rather than towing oxen with yokes.

It might help to think of UBI as a dividend on living in a wealthy society. We are a rich country. The problem is that it is all hoarded by the extremely rich.

Fund it through a mix of progressive taxes, resource dividends (like Alaska’s oil fund), carbon/automation/data taxes, and public investment profits. It’s not about printing money — it’s about sharing the wealth we already create more fairly.

Let the rich go abroad. I'd be happy to do away with Amazon, have a Government-funded alternative and all profits get put back in to running the country, not funding Jeff his next yacht.

I am sure there'd need to be some tweaking of how to get it to work best, but the system as it is just can't go on. It is not fair, and people are dying whilst others are ripping us off and sitting on more wealth than they can ever spend. It disgusts me.

If I understand it, everyone get given the same amount of money, and it’s not means tested, a bit like having a student grant back in the day. No conditions attached.

I think that will mean that in some sectors, part time or low paid jobs will be difficult to fill. Why go to work, juggle (and pay for) childcare etc, if the government pay you the equivalent amount of money?

There’s a lot of “They’d just do this, they’d just do that..”

The point is this needs dealing with and no it won’t be easy, and yes, they will dodge left and right to make sure poor people don’t have their living standards raised but it’s where all the money we need is and that’s that.

OP, I worked for an IT company in 1983. We were told, with the advent of the PC, many job roles would be redundant - typists, clerks, accountants, most admin workers, telephonists, receptionists, draughtsmen, printers, journalists.

We were told a basic income and three day working were likely. That we would have more leisure time, quality of life would rise. There would be more time for the arts and creativity. Sound familiar?

More than 40 years later, I, and everyone I know, is still working flat out to make ends meet and have a decent standard of living.

Markets adapt, new needs and new roles are created. In 1985 there were only a handful of IT companies -IBM, ICL, Burroughs etc. Now there are 000,000s. And millions of apps enabling us to do things faster and work more. On-line banking, internet everything, food deliveries, mobile phones etc.

If you are really expecting AI to make a huge difference to the employment market, maybe don't hold your breath.

This is the point I was trying ti make but expressed way better than I did, thank you.

There will always be jobs. The jobs themselves will change, and hopefully become more comfortable. I'd rather drive a combine harvester, be the person who designs it/sells it/services it, than harvest wheat with a sickle.

It isn't just UK facing an AI/jobs crisis. It's global. Unless you live in a country without the internet you will be affected.

I still think there will be some Putin character at the top of the food chain "IT Wizard of Oz" type. Dodgy as hell. I don't see what can be done to stop it at this point. 5 or so years ago I thought we would drop a day in the working week, which might have slowed the "need" or greed of a few things down, but we didn't do that and now it's all sped up.

Re the industrial revolution - you must see how machines changed the labour market, goods we expect and need and the knock on effect that has led us here? Here where farmers are going bust and super farms are the only way to turn a profit? Why food production in UK, for example is a huge issue that we aren't really preparing for?

I think this is a bit pie in the sky.

If all the rich go abroad, who will be funding this utopia?

‘People are dying’ is hyperbole. The UK has an expansive welfare state which supports people for a wide variety of reasons when unable to work, or not earning enough to support themselves.

Given we already cannot afford to fund our existing commitments in terms of welfare / pensions / health etc - expanding this into an even more comprehensive UBI seems counter-intuitive.

And ‘resource dividends’ - we have already pissed our oil money up the wall, and supporting the UK’s ~70 million vs eg Norway and their ~4 million are very different things.

The UK is already heading in a strange direction of penalising the moderately successful to give more to the less productive despite it crippling productivity - and I don’t think that’s a long term recipe for success. UBI at the UK’s scale is that ++.

How much do you think each person will get in UBI?
Are you expecting it on top of existing benefits?

So everyone would get this and working would be optional, fantastic idea I'll sign up! Where have they planted the money tree?

That wouldn't give enough money. Everyone will need to pay far more in tax. It will cost billions just to give every adult in the UK the same money the basic state pension let alone pension credit, housing benefit, PIP etc.

Ultra rich are international people. They don’t live in Grimsby, have been there all their lives, next door to their nan, auntie Jean over the road etc type people. They have acquired wealth by looking at global opportunities and moving to where those opportunities are. They are citizens of many different countries with friends and relatives all over the world.

I am thinking critically.
not working and pottering isn’t for everyone. I’ve seen the affect it’s had on people when they’ve had to give up work, because of children or incompatible illness (e.g driving and heart issues, epilepsy etc). Some thrive, others shrink away. Whilst the universal wage would give people the choice, the risk would be AI taking that choice away.

it would be interesting to see if it works or if it makes things even more unaffordable or alternatively frees up cash to spend which would in turn boost the economy. Wasn’t there a country testing it out?

It’s definitely coming in.

90% of all jobs will be gone in the next 15 years. I thought that was nutso when I first heard it, now I’m convinced.