To think the time is coming when a universal basic income is seen as a necessity?

[DoubtfulCat]

AI is replacing a lot of jobs which were previously highly specialised- like translation- as well as entry-level jobs into careers like law. Because the jobs which are hardest to automate seem to be those which are currently either very well paid (like senior managers, politicians, etc) or those at the lowest pay level (like care work, for example) it seems as if more and more people who would once have been gainfully employed will increasingly be competing for a shrinking pool of jobs with half-decent pay, and for those manual jobs. I see a rise in people with no job at all and a huge fall in people earning ‘professional’ salaries and following a reasonable career path. The knock-on would be falling private pension provision, falling savings, rising personal debt, and so on. Increasing hardship and wealth gap between those with and those without.

Do you think that a form of UBI would help to solve that problem?

• more people could work fewer hours each, so more people could have a job which often gives people a purpose in life
• hardship would be mitigated- no-one would be destitute or unable to feed themselves
• people might use their time on creative projects or things that are good for their health and well-being, if they have some breathing space around struggling to survive

Without income, cities and towns where people lose jobs en mass will have the opposite effect. Property prices will plummet, there will be a glut of homes on the market, rentals will fall as people won't have the money, and the blight effect will be everywhere.Not wanting to save the economy simply because one can't get over the thought of others getting money for not working is a bit like sawing off the branch you are sitting on. The money they receive gets circulated back through the economy through spending which is critical for preserving it.

I agree inflation would be a worry, but right now everyone receives income of some kind whether earned, benefits (including state pension), from investments, etc. and some people would immediately drop out of the workforce to do something else like training, studying, caring, etc. A proportion of people, if given ‘free’ extra money, would save or invest it or otherwise lock it away. Many people would like to work PT instead of FT. Finally, we are talking about a scenario in which jobs are at risk of disappearing.

And yes you need money in the economy - this reminds me of the anti furlough people who thought great swathes of the workforce should just lose their income overnight and it would not affect the entire economy!

I think some are missing the point, here. The Ragged Trousered Philanthropist was an idealistic notion of freeing up time for the masses to pursue other things, as opposed to having to work for a pittance whilst the upper classes played.

Today's discussions about UBI aren't about giving people free time to be reactive, etc. It's about the very real (despite what some of you think) prospect that there simply won't be enough jobs to do.

It's not about supporting idle feckers to laze about, it's about a time when there might only be actual employment for a much smaller percentage of the population. It's about what we do when half the country isn't working, not because the refuse to, but because there isn't the work.

I've not got skin in the game. It won't be in my working lifetime and I don't have young children. But for those with kids in primary school now, you should be asking the questions and you shouldn't be ignoring the reason there is a global conversation about this at the highest levels.

It's not a handful of Luddites. We can't keep burying our heads in the sand and saying 'there will always be jobs because history'.

This isn't history. This is now, and it's a massive change that is already happening and it can't be compared with the industrial revolution, which created industry. This is about effectively ending industry. The Luddites foresaw their own specialisms being done by anybody who could work a machine, this devaluing their professions. That happened. What we are looking at now is the machinery needing much fewer people than in the IR when it needed more.

It's not only that we can't all be experts in robotics, it's that we won't all be needed to do that. So what will we do when that happens.

For the record, I don't see UBI as the answer. I think the industry will collapse and we'll all find ourselves having to re learn the skills we lost because we rely on machinery to do it for us.

I think we’re headed for an employment disaster.

We will have mainly three or four tiers:

Bottom and maybe largest tier will be the unemployed.
Next tier (also large) will be manual, service and caring jobs, which many of us will be forced down into.
Third tier will probably be what were the skilled jobs but are now fairly unskilled admin jobs (just basic checks and quality control of what AI has processed - I can see my job going this way) with a basic wage.

Paywise, there will then be a fairly massive gap with jobs in the top tier(s) going to tech experts, people in property and a few other elite jobs.

The industrial revolution didn't "create industry"...! People were very industrious before the industrial revolution. What it created was ways and means of automating and mass producing. Many, many, many jobs, trades, skills and industries were lost in the industrial revolution, like making handmade lace and pottery. In fact, basically all handmade crafts and trades became redundant. Those jobs were replaced by other jobs, like jobs in factories. Did you think everyone was idle before the industrial revolution? They really weren't.

Before the washing machine was invented, every household had at least one woman (sometimes a servant, or the wife) washing all the clothes because it took a person all day. Then when the machine was invented all these huge numbers of women didn't suddenly live a life of leisure (I wish!) Instead they all got other jobs. Look at women now, we're nearly all working all day still, just at other stuff rather than household laundry.

I stand by what I said. Learn some history before trying to predict the future.

The people who want to remain living on a farm.
The people who want to earn more money than the UBI gives them.

Why would people stop growing food when there is still a market who wants to buy that food?

The mistake I think many are making is listing all the jobs that will be lost to AI, and saying that they can't be replaced by anything we demand now.

Of course not. Demands will change.

30 years ago it was unthinkable that ordinary people could ever expect to be able to buy literally anything for next day delivery. People would have laughed if you'd said "one day I'll just have a little brick in my pocket and tap tap it and the next day anything I want will be delivered to my door". And now everyone has it, it's called Amazon prime and they employ umpteen people.

None of us can even guess what crazy jobs will spring up. We have no idea what goods and services will be available and demanded. One thing we can be sure, it'll happen.

Because the vast majority of people are entrepreneurial. They won't sit around at leisure, they'll find a money making niche and harvest it. They'll create their own jobs. Like "search engine optimisation" and other ridiculous things

Hopefully it will never happen. It is a truly dystopian idea.

A lot of jobs are quite boring and tiring.

A lot of people regularly have thoughts like “oh, God, I hate getting up this early every day” or “I wish it wasn’t such a struggle to work and bring up my family” or “this commute is so stressful” or “I don’t feel fulfilled by my life, I wish I could spend more time being creative” or “how many hours is it still till I get to go home?”….

The opportunity to live without working is quite seductive but it can also be a trap because it can make you feel lazy and depressed and then you never really get the impetus to escape it - you just can’t quite face making the effort.

It is also in these companies interest to address this problem.
If they replace all their employees with AI, who is going to have disposable income purchase the products?

I agree and think you're likely right with the 3 tiers. I do think there will be a select group of men at the top who choose what data to feed in, which is what concerns me as this is already happening. As a result we see he AI being used by many companies to filter CV's already discriminates against women because it is coded on male history - how many women vs men have had managerial roles in the past, who has gaps in employment history, who has a better salary in previous roles and the rest. We see it being used to discriminate against people of colour getting welfare in USA, no doubt here too. I don't think it will do women any favours and suspect it will roll back a few things we were beginning to make inroads on.

I can see it becoming a fight we don't know how to clearly define as it is all supposed to be so "intelligent" while people increasingly rely it to do their jobs for them and rely on it for basic daily tasks. People are already scared to let it go or see that it may make their jobs obsolete, particularly if they are feeding it data on how to do it on a daily basis. We need to be sure we are in control of it, not the other way around. The internet has a lot in it's favour but it certainly hasn't been used for knowledge as it was originally intended considering the most frequent use is for free porn. It's very telling to me that of all the things on the net porn is still free. I worry we have missed the boat on controlling/harnessing this one, again.

The problem is people are looking at the idea from todays viewpoint. Over the next 50 years I expect Government to move to a fixed equal basic amount for housing benefit. Why should taxpayers pay out more for some areas than others, it makes no sense so a set amount for everywhere and the market will adjust. Pensions will be reduced probably along the lines of a two tier system, one minimum amount for those who couldn't work and one linked to hours worked for everyone else, so work 10 hours get you one hour pension credit thus rewarding those who put in whilst not totally abandoning those that didn't. The thresholds for disability will slowly be raised until only the profoundly disabled get any state help. As a society we've become too reliant on the idea of government fixing all our problems and financially the choices we have today will be taken away. At the end of the day we are just smart monkeys and survival of the fittest will always be part of us, so UBI will give people the choice to either exist or to strive to better themselves.

I agree, and I say this as someone recently retired and now do have time to potter. However, I would not have wanted to be living like this for all of my adult life, even though I only ever did boring office work. I don't think giving everyone the option to never work is healthy at all. People have been doing some form of work forever, why do the current generations think they are so "special" that they should be able to opt out?

And who pays for it?

I think the argument can equally be made that the mistake is to equate Ai with any other innovations in history. Experts agree that AI is not analogous to anything we've seen so far. Not the industrial age, electrification, or even the printing press. All of these were tools requiring humans to operate them. Computers require programmers etc. AI is the only invention that competes with humans, and can be developed to be autonomous systems.. Even on a creative level. Even artists are not spared. Software development is already being done by AI. Companies are already using AI generated models for advertisements and marketing, thus reducing work for an entire industry. AI can now write code for apps we use. It won't be long before even the high level architectural aspects of computer programming will also be done by AI in a fraction of the time it takes a human to do it. Forbes estimates 50 to 60 percent of jobs will be automated or transformed by AI by 2040. Entry level jobs are most susceptible, making people even more disillusioned than they already are.

There will be physical jobs for humans of course for the foreseeable future.. The examples you give about Amazon and phone apps for food delivery, have given rise to very low paying jobs, zero hour contracts, etc. which don't pay a living wage and is stagnant. I see that trend worsening with AI. It is hardly a comfort to know that those are the jobs that may increase. Unlike innovations in the past, AI scales up exponentially. Only one needs to be trained and copies are rolled out cheaply, and it is a mistake to dismiss the possibilities of what's to come based on our experience with past innovations.

But people don’t have any money to buy the products from the companies that are saving money by using AI, because they’ve lost their jobs now that AI is doing them.

It isn’t about being special- it’s about what do we do in a world where AI has led to only a very, very few jobs available and most of those (currently) very low-paid. Already right now we see reports of graduates seeing a massive drop in entry-level jobs in their fields. If graduates are therefore competing with non-graduates for any old job just to get an income; if many jobs suitable for people who are academic rather than dexterous, or jobs like shelf stacking are done by AI- what do we do? None of our assumptions based on life up to now will apply. New ideas are needed.

Though I just saw a post from Laura Bates about the misogyny and racism inherent in this technology and I think it’s too late anyway 😟

1. AI will still need supervision. Anyone who just punts AI straight out to customers is an idiot and it will come to bite them (or they will be out-performed by companies that do bother to read and edit the AI output)

2. UBI just means the base price for everything goes up. Just like happens with rent - it's set at the level that the council will pay, because why would a landlord charge less?

To anyone who supports UBI - what is the income and will it vary by location?

To anyone who thinks AI will replace loads of jobs and/ or create wealth - can you be specific about the jobs at risk and/or how the wealth will be created?

You’re kind of missing the fact that the world will continue to evolve as AI takes a grip on ‘programmable’ work. You are assuming the status quo PLUS AI, which has never been the way the world has worked. As old industries/careers/jobs die out (normally due to advances in technology), new ones emerge.

It’s by the by anyway. No-one will agree to pay for a UBI. No-one.

With the possible exceptions of the industries of healthcare, agriculture, and education (more to do with data privacy of students more than anything else), I believe all other sectors are susceptible. Especially legal, finance, customer service, software programming, coding and other data heavy industries. Artistic and creative industries are also facing a threat since now a person in front of a screen can create a human like model in a video...eliminating an entire crew of models and technicians and related costs. If self driving vehicles take off, there'll be an entire trucking industry out of work, along with taxies and delivery drivers. This may seem unreal at the moment, but corporations are investing billions in getting this technology to work so that they can profit from it. Being dismissive of the threat is not a smart strategy.

As for your first question, I don't belive even those who think of UBI as a viable solution to prevent the collapse of the economy have all the answers. The real question to those who don't support UBI may be : What are some alternative solutions?

As others have already pointed out some of us have lived through these dire predictions beforehand, and know that as some jobs disappear others will take their place.

Strangely enough I heard on a news item here yesterday (not the UK) that there are record numbers of students signing up to attend university, so obviously there are a lot of young people who don't share your doom and gloom prophesy.

What we knew as GIGO back in the day. Ie Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Well considering birth rate is dropping there won’t be as many people scrambling for the jobs.

People are still going to need to maintain any types of automated machines. It’s just going to change what jobs people need to train for.

Yes maybe a tax on companies who have cut down too many jobs due to robots/Ai to incentivise keeping more human staff even part time.

We will end up with more mechanics and electricians and such. As things will always need fixing.

Ai currently still has so many faults and glitches.

Im not against a universal income either just don’t see how it would be fully funded to keep every person in a healthy life. I’ve always said footballers and singers shouldn’t be making millions while our brain surgeons and nurses are on what they earn when they do actual meaningful jobs. We don’t need football we do need healthcare. The wrong people are paid fortunes. Even the discrepancy between say women footballers and men. Yes I get it’s the sponsors but it’s always left a bitter taste.

I'm not so optimistic. For example in a law firm, AI can replace a team of paralegals. Sure, a couple of junior solicitors may be trained to check the output of AI, but that doesn't create additional jobs. In fact, less solicitors will be needed. Barristers will still be required, but all solicitors will not find work as barristers if they passed the bar. Meanwhile all the paralegals and legal assistants out of work...where would they train in? They can't all become healthcare workers. Granted I'm looking at worst case scenarios, but I truly don't believe this is so far off, because that's what businesses want. We already face the infuriating automated chatbots for customer service everywhere, and it's spreading fast.

Lookng at coal, steel and shipyard industrial towns that have been left as ghost towns, I don't think the "when jobs disappear new ones develop" is entirely true either. Some of these towns and entire regions like the Rust Belt in the US have never recovered. AI can cause this ghost town effect on a much larger scale. Funnily enough, I never hear the argument that new jobs emerge when old ones leave when jobs are outsourced to other countries.