To think the time is coming when a universal basic income is seen as a necessity?

[DoubtfulCat]

AI is replacing a lot of jobs which were previously highly specialised- like translation- as well as entry-level jobs into careers like law. Because the jobs which are hardest to automate seem to be those which are currently either very well paid (like senior managers, politicians, etc) or those at the lowest pay level (like care work, for example) it seems as if more and more people who would once have been gainfully employed will increasingly be competing for a shrinking pool of jobs with half-decent pay, and for those manual jobs. I see a rise in people with no job at all and a huge fall in people earning ‘professional’ salaries and following a reasonable career path. The knock-on would be falling private pension provision, falling savings, rising personal debt, and so on. Increasing hardship and wealth gap between those with and those without.

Do you think that a form of UBI would help to solve that problem?

• more people could work fewer hours each, so more people could have a job which often gives people a purpose in life
• hardship would be mitigated- no-one would be destitute or unable to feed themselves
• people might use their time on creative projects or things that are good for their health and well-being, if they have some breathing space around struggling to survive

Perhaps you could tell us what makes you so interesting ?

Any UBi requires a seismic shift away from capitalism. It requires the wealthy/clever people who are most able to accumulate wealth under the current model, to be willing to accept a smaller proportion of overall wealth in order to share it with others. These types of people tend to be motivated, hard working people who are reluctant to provide a guaranteed income knowing that some people will opt to use it to live off while providing no productive labour.

These people tend to make their wealth off the work of others. If we move away from this model and set up systems where no one person can accumulate wealth to the extent the parasites like Musk and Besos have, then we will be better off as a society. For a start, they are tax avoiders. That at the very least needs to stop. And we need to stop bailing out the rich - the bankers, the gas companies, who then don't give back when they are running at profit.

Just ignore. I agree with you, I think people who want to be idly "creative" are usually akin to a certain ex boyfriend of mine who used to lounge around writing [terrible] poetry and paint pictures of vulvas.

Good art usually comes from people who are driven, with grit and resilience. I'm imagining (say) Van Gogh or Mozart who both produced work in a bit of a frenzy while being chased for debts.

Good art is rarely made by people lounging around comfortably being paid a living wage whether they make it or not.

True.
I just like to think that most people wouldn't settle for £2,000 when £3,000 is easily achievable. Maybe I have too much faith in people's needs/ ambitions.

Popping back on as I just saw this from the JRF https://www.jrf.org.uk/social-security/is-universal-basic-income-a-good-idea

It has the potential to do great things but, as I said before I don't think I full trust that it wouldn't be "overseen" by the likes of Google or Musk etc who are already the biggest players in keeping our data. Plus, they are the ones avoiding paying tax at the moment so highly unlikely to hand over enough cash to teach the world to sing...(particularly in a Communist way where they get less back in spends). Ultimately it will only happen if those who are profiteering now can continue to profiteer.

I think it could work. Everyone would get an amount which you could live on, but wouldn’t necessarily want to. So most people would want at least a part time job (and if there are fewer jobs available, more people could have a part time one than a full time one). Those with additional needs would receive appropriate extra amounts to level the field for them.
Tax would still be paid. But more people would have surplus income compared to now (since the basics would be covered) and would spend their money on the things they want, generating revenue and production and keeping the money circulating (rather than hoarding it offshore).
More people would have better health and well-being because they would have lower stress and afford a better diet, to exercise, etc. This would save the country a lot in health and social care costs. I think it could be self funding if it were done in the right way.

We can't have the likes of Musk or Besos in charge.

I'd love to see Rutger Bregman and Gary Stevenson (not particularly seen that the latter is a proponent of UBI, but I like his ethics and trust he'd do right by the people) in charge.

Maybe the entire world will end up following the communist principles!

everything is state owned
everyone earns the same regardless of competence, education, etc
ration of food
no private education or healthcare
all money generated by government is shared

i wonder how things work in Cuba?

disclaimer: I am absolutely clueless about communism so… apologies if I’m completely wrong!

Whilst I'm sure most sane people would agree about billionaire tax avoidance, I've yet to hear any workable solutions to stopping it. Unless you're willing to bomb/nuke/invade the tax haven countries to take them over and change their laws, it's never going to happen. Tax havens aren't going to give up their tax haven statuses without being forced to do so, so that means military action or bunging them billions to "encourage" them to change their laws.

If a billionaire chooses to base themselves in the Virgin Islands, Panama (or Isle of Man!) then it's inevitable they're going to pay a lot less tax than if they were based in Manchester.

This is one of the entirely foreseeable "Unforeseen" consequences of the global economy - borders don't matter anymore.

It would just fuel inflation (like Brown's tax credits) meaning prices go up and the UBI becomes too low to live on. You'd also have to set the income tax on earnings at a high level to bring in enough money to pay for UBI which would mean fewer people would find it worthwhile to work, especially in jobs involving expensive commuting, training, etc if they're paying stupidly high marginal tax rates on their earnings.

Fantasyland.
I’ll have what you’re drinking! 😂

I agree but if AI is funding it (unlike the Income Tax in the JRF link, as that was published 5 years ago and before AI had really taken off) we do need to see behind the curtain and who runs these firms before we hand over any more keys. I'm worried that it is already quite opaque and all we really know is that there are more men coding into it than women and this is already affecting women in a negative way, so my hopes aren't hugely high. As with all good things, they can turn bad in the wrong hands.

It's not just the income of those getting it that matters to the economy. It is their spending. Without people spending money, businesses cannot survive. We just need to look at former coal, steel, and shipyards etc. to see what happens when people lose their jobs. It's not just the jobs that disappear, the whole local economy collapses. Fewer people have disposable income. Local shops, restaurants, and services lose customers. Tax revenue falls, so public services decline. Young people leave to find work elsewhere, hollowing out the community even more.

That’s the same ripple effect people worry about with AI. If millions lose work and income, it’s not just their problem, it drags down demand across the whole economy. Without some kind of safety net (UBI, reskilling, or another way to keep money circulating), the risk is real of repeating those “ghost town” effects on a much larger, national scale.

If I were PM, I'd set up our own version of Amazon, and edge Besos out. The other countries can deal with him as they see fit. Same for all the tax-avoiders.

Hmmm, but Amazon is based on free labour from the Latter Day Saints in America, isn't it? No other country or company can compete. Maybe China with the Uyghurs but it's not exactly something most countries can or want to emulate.

Well, yeah. That is a risk. Government would have to regulate the fuck out of them. For it to work, we'd need something approaching communism and we don't need to look far to see the faults with that.

In principle, what you say would be lovely. However, I think its a bit idealistic.

I have only seen one once. A friend had one. I watched it working and found it fascinating.

How? At what cost? Just look at our own IT fiascos such as HMRC and the NHS. There's no way the civil service could procure/write the equivalent of Amazon. Their IT system (and delivery model) is the core of Amazon's success. If we had a government owned equivalent, we'd be back to waiting weeks for goods to be delivered. There are very good reasons why so much of "public sector" services are delivered by private firms.

This. I predict a disaster coming. The internet has had an overwhelmingly negative impact on life, and the effects of AI will be HUGE in comparison (in a mostly negative way).

Wouldn't work.

a) People are already furious at the idea that some people might be entitled to claim benefits, which won't change even if they do receive them as well.
b) Massive inflationary pressure - the moment everybody has an additional 10% income, all prices, housing, utilities, childcare, food, everything will go up probably 22% overnight.

B is exactly my thoughts as well, especially with housing and our private rental market.

I also don't like it in the way it is now emerging. I think we are doing too little too late to get a harness on it. It's like the internet 2.0 and we've not really got control of that after decades...

I agree with you but can I just share perspective as someone who does care work it’s not the lowest pay. I make between £22-£30 an hour. Lowest wage is around £12.20 an hour. I became a single mum and was supported by benefits and I’m very grateful for them I just wish there wasn’t such a stigma attached to cleaning/carer jobs and assuming it’s the lowest of the low work someone can get and must be scrapping by.