To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

Ah leaving the ECHR you mean like Blunkett and Straw are now publicly suggesting? Where Reform go, Labour follow

https://www.ft.com/content/b94d5b8d-b234-4199-b820-ea82bfe9292b

We've got nearly four years before the next election. No use worrying about polls.

You do realise that polling stations open early morning and close at something like 10pm at night! Unless you sit outside a polling station ALL day then you wouldn’t know. What a ridiculous comment! You don’t know what your neighbours do and don’t do! And quite frankly it’s none of your business

Ah here we go, the good old silent majority argument. That was peddled endlessly around Brexit (the 'flock' part of belonging). If Reform are part of the silent majority, I'd hate to discover a noisier one.

Pip can be really hard to get for some, yet some get it more easily - the system broken. Also if someone earns £50000 they don’t need pip on top really as they can do okay for themselves, it should be means tested as it is a benefit and the huge numbers claiming meaning not affordable, in a ideal world you pay it to all , but reality means you have to be stricter/ make some cuts. Putting people up in hotels then a house and benefits and hospital care/ drs , some potentially for years costs more than returning people in the long term, plus if you know your chance of staying is not great you then won’t travel, there is proof in that from other countries with stricter policies . Tough choices sometimes have to be made , they may not always seem fair but when you run a country you have to make decisions to benefit the majority.

If you are in a job where you speak regularly to a range of the general public, it is very apparent that their politics is winning people over. The public are not split down traditional lines any more and are fed up to the back teeth of all the others. However, to win, any party has to please a broad range of people and that's hard to do. I've noticed as well that a lot of people follow trump/vance, American politics (perhaps via popular media like Joe Rogan) and this is having a big influence. It's democracy.

If you think Conservatives were bad - and they were - and if you think Labour are bad - and they are to a lesser extent - then just wait until you see Reform in action. They’ll be Liz Truss Plus Plus. Who in their right mind would vote for a party of oligarchs with only the interests of the ultra-rich at heart ?

Quite

My neighbours have English flags in their garden. Who do you think they vote for?

Labour are doing the unpopular stuff now. The Tories well and truly salted the earth for them, so they have a very difficult job to do, and there’s still a while before they can have tangible things to show for their time in government. Labour are very bad at communicating their strategy, so it looks as if they are not doing much.
The problem is they are doing stuff that needs to be done ( winter fuel allowance, welfare reform) but are not thinking it through properly first and coming up with sensible reforms. Then are too easily being done over by their backbenchers who will not agree to any type of welfare reform and have smelt blood so will go for them again and again. The only things their backbenchers will allow through are things that the people on middle income PAYE have to pay for and ' tax the rich', which doesn't raise enough money. That's hugely unpopular in the general population, as are things like removing the 2 child benefit cap but they will agitate constantly for this. They seem to not care about collapsing their own government, which if it happens in the next couple of years will probably let Reform in.

Councils are FPTP too.

I think people are in denial and hoping something magic happens in the next four years. What if it doesn’t?

What was the outcome if that i rest my case , everyone thought remain would win and shouted down leave

I'm in Notts where as in many other areas Reform have taken control of the county council and it is already a total shit storm. The new council leader has annouced that he and none of the other Reform councillors will be communicating with the local press (Notts Live and the local BBC) as in they show the party in a "negative light". This is very worrying and surely contradicts their much vaunted love of "free speech". It is profoundly disturbing to think that they see critical analysis of their policies and performance as something to be suppressed. How this obdurate and ignorant take on news dissemination will pan out if they do win the next G E does not bear thinking about. Would this country be happy about excluding all critical media from being allowed to report on a Reform govt? As for them winning, Farage faces a long time of keeping the fear and hate at boiling point, and that is the only thing they seem to be profcient at

Reform must win or this country is beyond stuffed. For example, are you aware of what Labour is doing to the economy? The fantasy &22bn black hole that they say they started with in July 2023 is now a £50bn+ black hole. The country is borrowing to pay only the interest on the national debut. It is a fucking disaster. Wake up!

When i saw the epping hotel ruling earlier my first thought was, 'at what cost'

Its another absolute gift for Reform and I really worry what the next few weeks have in store.

I think Labour have 2 years to make some significant improvements, otherwise it will be too late for them.

As others have said Labour's win was wide but shallow, it was more a case of voting against the tories than a positive vote for Labour.

Its all a real mess.

If you are in a job where you speak regularly to a range of the general public, it is very apparent that their politics is winning people over. T

Of course it is because it sounds amazing. Obviously no basis in reality bit like all the Brexit promises.

If you vote just before closing you can see who is still on the list to vote. Every election it is people from just one or two addresses who vote apart from the Brexit vote when all the knuckle draggers got off their arses

Don't know how well Reform will do as a govt.

But I predict the next 4 years will make a Reform govt more likely: increase in sectarian politics, increase in lawlessness, clamping down on free speech, hundreds of undocumented men arriving on our shores each day, housing costs continuing to skyrocket, almost a million young people out of work etc.

Yes but MN was convinced the result would be Remain.
MN is a left leaning, London centric liberals site and doesn't necessarily reflect the rest of society in the UK. MN isn't a reliable barometer for political opinion across the UK.

FYI before you mud sling, yes I voted Remain and was shocked the majority voted Leave. It made me realise how out of touch I was.

They got out of bed in May and Reform took control of councils.

The country is borrowing to pay only the interest on the national debut. It is a fucking disaster.

Where did the debt come from? Higher interest rates do tend to increase debt

Let's be really honest, there is no single political party that can run a country in today's world.
Things are changing far too fast.
If anyone wants to be successful they need to be looking at a lot of variables up to 20+ years into the future.
No political party ever, has had the guts or insight to do this. It is 5 years and out (or not).
What would be a sensible idea for ALL political parties, is to ensure the population has the means of housing itself, ensuring affordable utilities and feeding itself. These basics appear to have been overlooked in recent times.

Can someone list the reform policies apart from stop the boats

Worried? I’m not OP I’m hopeful they will.

Reform are building strength in areas where people see and experience the pressures in public services (houses / schools / healthcare amongst others )
I live in such an area - flags and roundabouts painted with flags on are increasing in popularity . I voted labour (very doubtful I would again ) and wouldn’t vote reform but I can see why people feel resentful !!!!!

Whether their policies are believable enough to win a GE I’m unsure !

Yep. Totally totally agree with this @sundayfundayclub . 08 was a disaster globally and everything really stems from the austerity following such a large amount of money globally.