To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

How can some that are barely surviving pay more tax though? What we need is all those who can work - working , controlled immigration. No country can have unlimited unknown immigration, thats just simply not possible.

Whereas…..who does know how? Who?

but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year

It was said at the time their majoirty was a mile wide and an inch deep - and thus wouldn't take much to disappear.

TBH they've not been great though anyone coming into mess Tory had made was going to struggle they've done so more than expected - they don't seem good at poltics ie getting messages across and people on side.

I'd be surprised if Reform went from 6 seats to forming next government - but given the lack of vision from two main parties smaller parties are likely to do better than prior - so it's hard to gauage what will happen not least because a week a long time in poltics and next election is likely years away.

I’m not a huge fan of Labour but they’ve done a damn sight better than the Tories so far. I don’t really understand all the vitriol towards them, especially don’t understand anyone thinking the company Reform could do better.

Same, labour aren't perfect but they are trying to do some things. Why are they hated for trying and then expected to turn around nearly 20 yrs of low growth in a short time frame?

Yes I think they will. It’s terrifying. Look what happened in the local elections, people that had never voted before came out to vote Reform, and safe seats got taken.

We never thought Trump would get in, but he did. Twice.

I’m getting my docs together to finally get my Irish passport sorted. I need an escape plan.

They'd have to sustain this polling for four years, and find enough candidates, and beat the FPTP system.

I'm not saying they can't win, but polls change with the wind and it is in no way a given that the polls will be reading this way by Christmas 2025, let alone by Summer 2029.

We NEED them? For what? They just pick up on a topic that people get riled up about (typically those Daily Mail readers) and run with it.

Like during the referendum when they wanted everyone to vote leave because it would stop all the immigrants coming in? Well they go that wrong didn't they...!

People are voting for Reform out of desperation as changes need to happen to sort this Country out, but Reform are certainly NOT the party to do that. Labour or the Torys need to get a strong leader in place and put policies in place that benefit those that work hard and contribute to society in a positive way.

@yellowspanner can you educate me please on Reform’s policies? Beyond the obvious of course. Do they have radical and workable plans for the NHS? For collecting taxes more efficiently? For strategies for our foreign policy to support domestic stability? I could go on, so take your pick

I’m hoping Labour will be out but I’m not sure Reform is the best choice. I wouldn’t be surprised if they win.

All those moaning about tories though they had to sort out the mess left previously from labour and the deficit, goes to show they are all pretty crap. This is why the smaller parties are also gaining momentum, maybe not enough to take over but labour don’t seen to have a clue, they have back peddled on their own policies twice already, that doesn’t fill anyone with confidence , they have 4 years to make some improvements but its doubtful

I hope so, the sooner the better too.

I think the 2026 Welsh Senedd elections will be the point at which we see if the polling will translate into votes. If Reform are the majority party in Wales it will be disastrous for them, as it’s likely to prove that they are all talk. Unless they can prove that they can significantly improve people’s lives in Wales (which they won’t be able to do) they will lose votes before the next UK election.

Agree! No prime minister we have had before have ever had experience of running a country! Keir Starmer - well he was an immigration lawyer, now the PM, no prior experience of running a country. But that’s ok because it suits the narrative of some people!

www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx201znge11o.amp

A Reform council lobbying the gov about their planned tightening of visas for health and care workers did make me laugh.

I think so to
Everyone I speak to is very concerned about immigration...
People could lie obviously,but they are all saying they are voting reform
No shame about it either ,was in a hobby group coffee morning and all 10 people said the same for the next election.
Which I was very surprised at ,surprised they were openly happy to admit to this
A lot of anger as well at various situations

Thats really for you to look up as they do have them , or wilk have in time for an election but also they are a reminder to the others of what policies to matter to the average voter, come election time thats all they worry about - getting votes from whenever and lets face it they can all promise what they want , then when in don’t have to deliver. Maybe just maybe if manifesto’s were legally binding we would all know exactly what we are voting for

@healthadvice123 what things did the Tories fix caused by the previous labour government?

After the Brexit mess I wouldn't be surprised if they get in.
My dodgy neighbours all popped out to vote in the referendum, which explains a lot. Never seen them at a polling station before or after.

I think it will boil down to voter sentiment coming up to the next election. If the electorate believes things are turning around and life is a little easier (in four years time) then the knee jerk support for the likes of Farage & Co. may wane a good bit. What party that will favour is anyone's guess though.

If things do NOT improve and life becomes even harder and if mass asylum led immigration (which I know is legal) continues at the current pace, well that plays right into the hands of Reform and its supporters, legal or not.

Over to you Labour. You have four more years (as Obama said second time around), so use it well for the good of everyone.

Doesn't Farage want to get rid of the NHS and replace it with American style healthcare not sure how this will help 'hard working families'.

I can't see it happening under the UK electoral system. Reform just doesn't have the infrastructure, and there's no way they will get it in place. Farage's past performance is the best predictor of this—he has never run an actual political party, just a series of protest groups with the sole aim of getting himself on telly.

Reform are going to have to find 650 viable candidates that people will want to vote for locally. I'm sure they will increase their number of MPs, because I can't see the Tories sorting their shit out in time, but an actual majority is very unlikely.

Now if they cuckoo into the Tory party, that would be a different story. I'm not sure that Farage actually wants to be PM though.

They’ll easily find the candidates and their support doesn’t seem contained to only certain areas. They took control of Durham and Kent easily.

Starmer seems completely oblivious to public opinion so not much hope is there.

Reform only have 4 MPs in Westminster at the moment.

There are 650 seats in parliament. To have an overall majority, a political party must win over half of these seats: at least 326.

I don’t think Reform have enough candidates to even contest enough seats and take over 300 seats they currently don’t hold.

I think Reform may take control of more councils, and more metro Mayor seats, but at a government level I think that’s unlikely.

I hope Andy Burnham takes over as Labour leader in the meantime and can sort this current shit show out.

So what if they do.
So many moans about the Labour Party and Conservatives.