To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

Yes but MN was convinced the result would be Remain. MN is a left leaning,

I think most assumed the electorate wouldn't vote to damage ourselves,

I agree with you. I was so hopeful that Labour would be a good government after the Tory fiasco. But, they seem to be politically stupid. They started off with a message of complete doom and gloom..not what we needed. So many politically stupid moves e.g. cut the fuel allowance. Fine but not going to bring in much money. Then uturn so hardly any money coming in. Even now with Angela Rayner..takes her name off the lease of the property she owned in her constituency to save forty grand on a luxury 800 thousand pound flat in Hove…that forty thousand will cost Labour quite a lot of votes. Hopefully in four years time we will have some better prospects for government.

We’ve already got that right now

I asked ChatGPT this very question!

Reform UK – Main Policies (2025)

1. Immigration

• Stronger borders, strict limits on immigration.
• End mass, low-skill immigration.
• Deport illegal migrants quickly.
• Use offshore processing for asylum seekers.

1. Economy & Tax

• Cut income tax and fuel duty.
• Raise the income tax threshold to take more people out of paying tax.
• Abolish inheritance tax for most people.
• Support for small businesses and self-employed workers.

1. NHS & Healthcare

• Reform NHS management to reduce bureaucracy.
• Increase frontline staff.
• Use private sector where needed to reduce waiting lists.

1. Law & Order

• Increase police numbers and visibility.
• Harsher sentences for violent and repeat offenders.
• Crack down on grooming gangs and knife crime.

1. Education

• Promote vocational training and apprenticeships.
• Ban gender ideology and political bias in schools.
• Focus on core subjects and traditional teaching.

1. Energy & Environment

• Scrap net zero targets.
• Promote nuclear, gas, and other domestic energy sources.
• Lower energy prices by increasing supply and cutting green levies.

1. Brexit & Sovereignty

• Fully complete Brexit – reduce EU influence on UK law.
• Reform UK trade, borders, and laws for greater independence.
• Leave the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR).

1. Government Reform

• Cut size of government and civil service.
• Reduce House of Lords size.
• Introduce proportional representation for fairer elections

It was bankers and ultra-capitalists who got us into the 2008 crisis.

So only a total fool would vote for more ultra-capitalists like Reform.

And who looks at the bloody list? You? 😂

i have never ever once looked at the list. I wouldn’t be able to see it for a start as my eyesight is terrible. And even if I could see it, I still wouldn’t look! It’s none of my business. Oh and btw many people still don’t turn out to vote so there will be more left on the list than you think! Maybe you live in a small village if there’s only one or two left on the list at the end of the day! Try living in a large town and you will probably see things differently

Become he won, Starmer seemed to come across as quite an intellectual. Since then, he comes across as a right plank.

People have obviously learned nothing from Brexit. They weren't happy with life so we needed Brexit (completely unplanned for and a disaster - life is much worse now). The current government is doing a bad job, so we need Reform! (no plans other than removing what's left of everybody's rights to line their own pockets). What is it about Nigel Farage that makes people like and trust him?

Beyond immigration, can you name three other Reform policies that you like?

Maybe labour could come out with the facts about how they are treated,
People were taking about social media,where there are films of the help yourself 3 full meals a day and the huge amount of food wasted ,and saying they can't afford to eat like that ,that the fruit is to expensive to give their kids the same unlimited fruit.
Others said they haven't been able to afford a night away in a hotel in years .
So lots n social media about iPads ,x box , expensive hotels,full buffet at every meal ,day trips ot , dentist appointments where people can't get NHS dentist, doctors appointments,for migrants ..where locals are waiting a month .
So if none of this is true ..labour really need to tell it how it how it is
Because labour are not communicating the reality
Labour say they are deporting failed cases ,but it's not making the media ..
So the reality is , people are taking the wod of what they see in social media

I think expectations were too high of Labour. I voted for them and I think they are doing about as well as I expected but could do better. I have in the past voted Tory, Labour and LibDem .
I'm old enough to remember Labour governments of the 70s which were a disaster but the Blair years left the country in a better state.

My DC both voted Labour and are hugely disappointed. I doubt they'll turn to reform but if people like them vote for minor parties that lets reform in.

Four years is enough for people to see what Reform do in local government. Lets hope the Labour and Cons parties get their act together to offer a decent alternative to reform.

Not sure who saw him as intellectual! He’s like a block of wood. No facial expression, no personality, nothing in him! Just blank. He just spouted words people wanted to hear. Then did the opposite when elected. I saw him coming long before the election date.

my comment was quoting someone else , I don’t personally look to see if my neighbours vote or care

I don't think he wants to.

I have never in my life been so disillusioned by a political party. It started with Covid and their "longer, harder, deeper lockdowns" stance. Showed how utterly clueless they were. People won't like it but you can't run a country with "protecting the vulnerable" as your main focus. It just doesn't work.

You quoted me though 🤷‍♀️ And I replied

edit. Sorry wrong poster. But my point still stands

The press conferences with Trump were horrific, he malfunctioned live on air!

Not another handwringing post about this 🙄

Become he won, Starmer seemed to come across as quite an intellectual. Since then, he comes across as a right plank.

Thanks to Helen Fielding, people were confusing him with Mark Darcy.

I’m not talking about trump I’m talking about Starmer. Not sure what trump has to do with it

How exactly? That's what they've but so far they haven't actually explained how. Until they do, with detailed costings, its meaningless.

A lot of this sounds good.
Any ideas how they will fund it?

Yes I think we probably are. Current and former governments only have themselves to blame if we do.

That sounds similar to where I am, I would never ever vote for Reform but I can see why they have appeal for people as by the time we get to the next G E we will have had approaching 20 years of neglect and decline. We have crumbling schools, filthy streets, local services that barely function and a city centre that looks like it has survived a minor war. You can see why people feel totally neglected and ignored. Factor in the shocking cost of just trying to get by and you have the perfect storm for an untested and maverick party to achieve power. I am really down and depressed about how bad things are but I do not think that multi-millionaire Farage and Tice who spends most of his time in Dubai are going to help poor people struggling to get by in a rough inner city area.

Labour will change the voting laws to PR before the end of the parliament. We now have too many parties for the 2 party system.

Remember the majority of the country don’t want Reform and willl use tactical voting to stop them.

I just checked out Lib Dem policies on Chat GPT, and am now wondering why they don't get more votes, and why poorer people from deprived areas, a lot of whom will be carers, don't vote for them, as they will look after the worse off.
Just a bit baffled why Reform are so.popular, when they won't help the poor one bit. Is it really just the Immigration, because that would be cutting off your nose to spite your face.