To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

Im not a Labour voter, but I was willing to see how they did at least. Turns out they’re are rubbish as predicted. Worse in fact.

It’s amazing how many of you have the ability to see into the future and just KNOW Reform are going to do a terrible job. I suppose if you are pro open borders and unlimited immigration, only then can you predict you might not like how it will pan out under them.

I've been asked what policies I like from Reform. So, they will deport all the migrants.
And I do believe they will send them back or to a neutral country. Great
They will reverse the VAT on school fees
They will get rid of wokery
They will reduce the size of govt .
They will cut benefits and get people into work
They will stop PIP for silly reasons
They will cut my taxes
They will restart the oil industry

I won’t be voting reform and I’d rather pluck my eyes out with my Tweezermans than vote Labour. But, I will say this please, please stop saying the only people who are concerned about illegal immigration, agree with SOME points reform make and do think that Labour are doing a fucking shite job at running the country but an amazing job at pissing off a lot of the people who voted for them, are racist and daily mail readers. It’s a really old argument and you make yourselves look silly.

Labour are doing the unpopular stuff now. The Tories well and truly salted the earth for them, so they have a very difficult job to do, and there’s still a while before they can have tangible things to show for their time in government. Labour are very bad at communicating their strategy, so it looks as if they are not doing much.

I actually find the “good communicator” politicians scary: Blair, Johnson, Farage. People automatically believe them without questioning them at all, because they are so “relatable”, and they pretend to be “men of the people”, and so they get away with murder. I think a public sceptical about the government is a good thing. Farage knows his audience, as did Johnson: they say vote-winning things that Daily Mail readers approve of.

I’m hoping that Farage will mess up sooner or later, go too far, and say something stupid, when the invincibility complex gets the better of him. Reform councillors are showing their weaknesses, now that they have a scrap of power. We can only hope that the public will see this.

Does everyone remember the time where Trump becoming President was just a laughable idea to most? You’ve all got very short memories

Reform are almost certainly going to get into power unless something major happens in next few years.

In four years? It's a long way off yet.

I question them ‘easily’ finding parliamentary candidates, county councils are a different turn out typically.

So, they will deport all the migrants.
And I do believe they will send them back or to a neutral country. Great
They will reverse the VAT on school fees
They will get rid of wokery
They will reduce the size of govt
They will cut benefits and get people into work
They will stop PIP for silly reasons
They will cut my taxes
They will restart the oil industry

And pigs will fly...

The financial markets won't buy into their fantasy.

Anyone who wants labour is utterly insane.

This is what political experts and pollsters never seem to factor in:
the huge numbers of people who usually never vote who will go for Farage.

Sending people back to countries costs lots of money, how are they going to fund that, AND cut your taxes? Who’s paying for it?

What does getting rid of workery mean?

Nobody cares much about vat on private schools, very elitist, irrelevant to the vast majority of the population.

Have you ever tried to apply for PIP?

but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year

Is it? What benefits have Labour brought to the UK this far?

I suppose if you are pro open borders and unlimited immigration, only then can you predict you might not like how it will pan out under them.

Or you could not be a fan of unlimited migration but still understand that Reform are a shit show.

A bit like labour then…

And there was a big, coordinated campaign of “stop the tories” this time round.

Reform are going to have to find 650 viable candidates that people will want to vote for locally. I'm sure they will increase their number of MPs, because I can't see the Tories sorting their shit out in time, but an actual majority is very unlikely

They have also got to find thousands of candidates for next year's local and national elections. Given their issues over vetting, there is huge potential for fuck ups.

I can reform winning and it terrifies me. Ironically I think Labour voters will be more split than conservative.

@loulouljh I'd rather labour than Reform. But as I said no one party can sort this mess.

Well the lot in currently are appalling, closing down free speech, spending manically on anything but our infrastructure, doing the opposite of what is required to get the economy going, taxing more and more, how much worse can Reform be? The Conservatives are a complete joke and fixed nothing in their last term, and I think all other parties are hopeless too (with the possible exception of the SDP).

Many people are very upset and worried about mass immigration, illegal and legal, despite the slavish support for it on this forum. If Labour won’t do anything about it then people will vote for a party that will, or at least says it will until it gets into power.

I don't think people who care barely survive should pay more tax! The rich and corporations should.

I also don't think immigration should be uncontrolled. What we have now is not uncontrolled immigration, that would assume that we were just letting anyone in willy-nilly which we aren't. You have to jump through a lot of hoops and pay a lot to come and live in the UK if you want to work here.

The small boats situation is a very complex issue and no party wants people risking their lives in this way, hence the attempts to discourage them by threatening deportation to Rwanda/letting them drown and trying to stop the RNLI rescuing them etc. This ludicrous narrative that they are all given ipads and games rooms is just an attempt to stoke up hatred.

I don't think people going around harrassing people in hotels and putting up flags for racist rather than patriotic/sporting reasons ever think to themselves "what would happen if the tables were turned?" What if it was them, their children, their families ousted from their homes and trying to make a new life while being treated like criminals. It's British exceptionalism at play, they can't put themselves in someone else's shoes.

Reform in the government would eventually culminate in Civil War.

This is not the same as winning the FPTP system though. Popularity and press-dominance does not necessarily translate to power, although it can do, and besides we still have four years to go.

Anything can happen in that time. Major scandals, economic booms and busts, wars, pandemics. And so on.

Trying to predict the next general election today is like looking at the weather on June 6th and trying to guess if it will be a white Christmas. If it keeps you happy then by all means go ahead but if you're right it will be by pure luck rather than design.

I've no doubt Starmer means well generally, but he just doesn't have political nous IMV. He seems to just let things happen and is hands off regarding his ministers/sec states.

I can see a heave in a year or so if Reform continue to surge ahead. If that happens his successor would need to be someone with presence, a bit of charisma, a great speaker and a good leader.

Any guesses.

This.

I absolutely wouldn’t vote for them and pray they don’t actually get anywhere near number 10.

However there’s a small (minute!) part of me that thinks maybe them
getting in could be better in the long run.

Maybe people need to see he can no more promise unicorns and rainbows than anyone else and he will not be puncturing boats and retuning 5 flights a day to god knows where.

And once we do start to become a
country run by a dictatorship who think human rights should be abolished hopefully people will see the light.

Except I actually don’t want them
anywhere near being given the change to try it.

I don't believe Reform will win, there are a few people shouting loudly about them, but I doubt they will be bothered getting out of bed to vote to be honest.
They will be tactfully voted against to make sure they don't get in.