To be starting to worry that Reform will win next GE?

[TortoiseMantle]

The polls have shown a consistent lead. Is there any realistic chance of Reform actually winning the next election?

I vote Labour, but it’s hard to see how they’ve managed to throw away such a lead in just a year, and it’s hard to see how their polling improves. The Tories maybe have more opportunity for improving, but we’re going to see a Reform government, aren’t we? Nigel Farage is going to be our next PM.

Andy Burnham will not be Leader. He’s not an MP and they won’t risk a by-election. They probably couldn’t win one.

Reform will find enough candidates with ease.

The electorate needs to face up to the difficult reality.

We never recovered from 08
Public services have been starved of investment
Companies have not invested in their workers
We have an ageing population
A sicker population
A fucked housing market
intergenerational inequality
Skilled job shortages
Immigration has been the main driver of our low growth economy in recent years

We cannot have low taxes and good quality public services. It's not possible. Sending all the boats back won't change that.

Agreed, this will be much more telling than local council elections.

What does "get rid of wokery" mean to you?

They will cut my taxes 😂

I hope they know which tax bracket you are in so they can specifically do this.

I don't think Reform will win as they are a one trick pony. Farage surrounded by oddballs and misfits. I do wonder if the Tories will do a deal with them though and Farage becomes CP leader ( now he's an MP at last). I think the Tories have nothing to lose. They are finished as a brand. The only thing that will save them is possibly Farage.We'll be begging for the old Conservative Party back if that happens.

judgemental or what, you know your vote is not worth anymore than theirs ?
why can’t some accept others have different opinions, I can honestly say i have never seen one of my neighbours at a voting centre as its open for so long and I don’t check looking out my window all day

It’s very likely, but unclear whether they’d get a working majority. Unless another party goes into coalition with them, it wouldn’t be possible.

But, yes, they are gaining support across the generations. 🤷‍♀️

I agree, just look at the (multiple) French presidential second rounds over the years where people who would usually never vote for a centre right pres "held their nose" to keep out Le Pen, and later Le Pen jr

Aww, Hallo Nigel, I just want a government that is capable and for once actually actingon behalf of the electorate instead of lining the pockets of their friends and families!
And at the moment the thing that pisses me off is Energy Companies! So anyone who can sort their money grabbing ways out has my vote today...
Tomorrow it's probably anyone who can guarantee me a decent dentist that will be happy to see me won't cost me a fortune ...
If you promise & deliver a decent secondary school for my DC, I will vote for you on Wednesday.

... but sorry, I am not sure what will be pissing me off in 2029 - maybe Labour will have fixed all of the above & so much more. You never know, pigs could fly in the end.

Yes, the GEs usually have a larger turnout. But the locals tend to predict the General.

If they do we will be caught up with america

Anything can happen as we’ve seen in the past. If people feel their concerns are not being listened to, they will turn to what they see as their only option. I don’t think it’s a certainty, but it’s certainly a possibility.

You missed one
They will abolish the NHS

And void the Good Friday Agreement, and (I believe) leave the international convention against torture.

They are a protest party. Their policies are designed to be populist but would rapidly lead the country to bankruptcy and international condemnation.

You must be one of those fools that believed that Brexit would curb down immigration dramatically.

The reality is that since brexit immigration numbers have gone through the roof.

There is a leap of resentment accumulated toward all the brexiters who lied through their teeth during the referendum campaign. Reform on government would be the final spark that would trigger a wave of violent riots the likes of which you can't even begin to visualise.

Its people like you who always stoop to daily mail readers etc - read the room your in. Many don’t discuss politics because of being tarred by others the silent majority can be the differrence . I hate it when people are like I vote this way, this is correct everyone who doesn’t agree with me is racist , stupid, wait for it a daily mail readers etc. did nobody learn anything from Brexit

In all honesty, whoever wins the next GE, we are stuffed. The cycle goes after a Labour governmnet, the next poor sods generally go down the austerity route in an effort to clean up shambles left by Labour to try and prevent an IMF bailout. because Labour spend, spend, spend. Unfortunately, this shower of shite running the country at the moment are worse than the Wilson government and well on the way to having to go cap in hand to the IMF next year.
The problem we have is that we have no statesmen anymore. No-one who knows the system and no-one who can be an utter bastard and who can stand up and call out the civil service and rein them in.
God help us all.

The groundswell definitely feels this way. It is so depressing, as there is so much disinformation out there enraging people and swaying their opinions. I just don't know how to get the truth out there - it seems optional to agree with facts.

I can understand the anger - if you believe that someone arriving in a dinghy is set up with a new iphone and ipad, put up in luxury etc etc while you and yours are struggling then of course that would enrage anyone. But it simply isn't true. And yet people seem to refuse to engage with facts which are at odds with what they believe (and are fed constantly by the media).

I know! Extraordinary thing to say about never seeing these neighbours at a polling station before.

Among selling off everything that isn't nailed down and industrialising all sorts of public service so that his toadies and backers can line their pockets.

This "repatriation" schtick? Yep, they'll find the money for it, an no doubt the private company contracted to so it will be taking a hefty profit out of public purse.

People who are planning to vote Reform because "public services are shit" must have a zip up the back of their heads. 4-5 years of Reform and you will have no recognisable public services.

Then there is the whole "withdraw from the ECHR" thing. You really have to wonder about the motivations of a political entity agitating to withdraw a nation from a convention designed to protect citizens from its own fucking government.

Do you agree with farage’s views on handguns guns ? He said the ban brought in after Dunblane was ‘ludicrous’

No they won't. It's not fit for purpose anyway.

If you think Conservatives were bad - and they were - and if you think Labour are bad - and they are to a lesser extent - then just wait until you see Reform in action. They’ll be Liz Truss Plus Plus. Who in their right mind would vote for a party of oligarchs with only the interests of the ultra-rich at heart ?

Just look at what’s happening in the local councils they won, and that should be the lesson.

There weren’t loads of “diversity / woke” jobs for them to cut, there wasn’t a load of wasted money to save, they promised reduced (or at least not increased) bills from all the money they would save .. but that money doesn’t exist. They are being sacked / resigning because they aren’t up to it, or didn’t understand the commitment involved.

Now picture that on a National scale.

It’s easy to make promises when you have no power, then you get it .. and can’t deliver (because it’s undeliverable)