In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

[TheMintCritic]

Just came across this and thought it was wild… according to the ONS, by 2029 the number of deaths in the UK is expected to outnumber the number of births for the first time in decades.

• Our fertility rate is only about 1.5 kids per woman, well below replacement.
• Meanwhile, the population is ageing — all those baby boomers are moving into their 70s and 80s.
• The result? The natural population growth turns negative, meaning any population increase will rely entirely on immigration.

It’s crazy to think that in just 4 years, births won’t even keep up with deaths. Makes you wonder what that’ll mean for schools, NHS, pensions, and housing.

I think you're just wanting to watch the world burn and revel in it - which I don't think is a progressive attitude.

I think a lot do just want this

Surely it's a good thing, given all the moaning about immigration? Primary schools in the south are already dropping their intakes, and some will need to close in the next few years. But I suppose it might free up some housing?

Make them pay the correct amount of tax in this country. They currently pay peanuts.

Make who?

The planet as a whole doesn't need more people. Environmentally, we are fucked with dwindling resources, so good. I'm very glad population is diminishing.

Hell yes this is the main impulse.

They'll have a great view from the top of the pyre there.

It’s time for the uber wealthy (billionaires etc) to pay more tax.
Labour need to stop punishing the middle class, they’re not wealthy any more.

Amen to that!

Shrinking and ageing is a temporary problem for our generation as we will probably have to work longer than our parents and may have less access to care. However, the alternative is that if people continued to have babies at replacement rate, we’d be on course for a global population of 14 billion people this century, as replacement obviously doesn’t mean you replace the old people, it means you replace the parents, while the grandparents and great grandparents might still be going strong. The net effect is a lot more people, not a stable population. Trying to feed and house 14 billion people is also a massive problem in the context of climate change, biodiversity loss and shrinking global food and water supply. Neither option is appealing, but in my view at least a population that peaks this century and then declines is slightly more sustainable than one that keeps growing. We are paying the price for huge progress in health, life expectancy and living standards, and I’m hopeful that I’ll live well into my retirement, even if not confident that it will be easy to find care if I need it.

While the world population is still growing, birth rates are collapsing everywhere, and the population is expected to enter into decline before the end of the century. What we don't know yet is how steep it will be.

The UK's population has only increased because we have relied on high immigration to paper over the birth rate issue. However, the well of immigrants will also start to dry up before too long. Immigration is a stop gap solution but is unsustainable (and, of course, politically divisive).

The planet as a whole doesn't need more people. Environmentally, we are fucked with dwindling resources, so good. I'm very glad population is diminishing.

It also doesn't need more older people proportionally if you are concerned about resources particularly ones in the west.

The clue is in the wording. If you can terminate yourself you don’t need assistance. I think the legislation will be modified in the future to accommodate those who wish to terminate their lives, with a DNR in place to prevent well meaning relatives from resuscitating you.

The option is there for all of us to take our lives whenever we wish but legally it is unlawful to stand back. I have had a number of friends commit suicide and it is an incredibly difficult situation to understand. But as I get older and see other friends succumbing to terminal illness, disability and the dreaded dementia I’m starting to think that taking control of your own end is actually quite sensible. I certainly don’t want my DS watching me in a care home unable to communicate, feed myself or move ( my DF ended up like this) or watch me dying in agony from end stage cancer ( most likely scenario since I’ve already had breast cancer) . I’m all for a happy death when I can say goodbye but when there is no hope or I’m just too frail.

I’ve always liked the idea of driving off a cliff in a fast car but knowing my luck the airbags would save me. So one last alcohol fuelled bender and a cocktail of drugs to just switch me off so no massive hangover. I no longer drink so it would be something to look forward to.

I’ve always liked the idea of driving off a cliff in a fast car but knowing my luck the airbags would save me. So one last alcohol fuelled bender and a cocktail of drugs to just switch me off so no massive hangover. I no longer drink so it would be something to look forward to.

The latter is more preferable from a responder point of view and recovery would be cheaper.

Our population is increasing rapidly due to immigration- it’s a good thing the birth rate is declining.

People care passionately about their (potential) kids and they don't want to just produce worker bees that can't afford a decent quality of life and are brought into a very uncertain future.

Maybe reserve that thought until you get to your late 50s and re evaluate. It’s easy to dismiss the importance of the older generations but frequently they are now employed as free childcare for increasing numbers of families. In some cultures you have children and your parents raise them. It has been going on for generations.

I agree. Exponential population growth that has been going on for decades has been highly damaging. It has to change at some point and this is it

It’s easy to dismiss the importance of the older generations but frequently they are now employed as free childcare for increasing numbers of families. In some cultures you have children and your parents raise them. It has been going on for generations.

@Angrymum22 I'm confused, did you mean to respond to my post with the above?

What on earth does free childcare have to do with a debate around the world's dwindling resources & how ageing demographics impact that and that the west consumes more resources?

This is not news. What I find incredibly depressing is how blinkered some parts of the population are.

It is no longer possible for most people to live off a single wage. Childcare is often the equivalent to a mortgage. As a nation we need people working and paying taxes to fund services and welfare (although people hate paying for it and the ever increasing bill). The biggest portion of welfare spending goes towards pensions and the elderly also are the largest users of health services etc. Yet they vote so they are pandered to and many often talk about working all their lives and 'paying their stamp' despite this not actually being true. They were paying towards the last lot of pensioners and what they paid in does not actually cover the costs of their pension. It is not a private pension, it is a welfare benefit. We cannot afford it, it was only ever to be for a few years but people started to live longer.

My parents generation benefited from huge rises in house prices, the best of the welfare state and being part of the EU and the common market. Future generations, unless inheriting wealth, are living in a very different world. I find it very sad that those who voted in such a way to cause so much division are those who benefited the most.

But the falling birth rate makes life harder for each passing generation. Its your kids and their kids that will pay the price, and it only gets worse from there.

While I'm childless, its actually not-having-at-least-2-kids that's the selfish choice (focussed on maintaining our standard of living, at the cost to the next generation).

Women are wising up and refusing to settle for mediocre men when they can do everything men can do. Not surprising that the birth rate is dropping as a result.

If society wants to make having children more appealing then we can start by educating boys and men on being equal partners.

As a nation we need people working and paying taxes to fund services and welfare (although people hate paying for it and the ever increasing bill). The biggest portion of welfare spending goes towards pensions and the elderly also are the largest users of health services etc. Yet they vote so they are pandered to and many often talk about working all their lives and 'paying their stamp' despite this not actually being true. They were paying towards the last lot of pensioners and what they paid in does not actually cover the costs of their pension. It is not a private pension, it is a welfare benefit. We cannot afford it, it was only ever to be for a few years but people started to live longer.

Unfortunately true

The whole point is no recovery I’m afraid. Big party, then oblivion. I watched my DF die over 3 weeks. He was 66 and had locked in syndrome. Five years earlier he had a full and happy life. His only option, since his body was fine, just his brain that had disconnected from it, was to refused food and water. He effectively committed suicide and it was probably the cruelest thing I’ve watched.
My DSis died last year, pancreatic cancer, for different reasons I wish that she had been able to pull the switch a few days earlier. We had watched my DM die of cancer 30yrs ago, before Harold Shipman case caused such an outcry, my DM was given much higher doses of opiates that made her last couple of weeks comfortable and dignified. My DSis didn’t get the good stuff until 24 hrs before she died. The pain and discomfort she suffered was unnecessary, but the protocols have changed and although she had gold standard hospice end of life care it was so much harder than my DMs end.

@Angrymum22 I don't think you understand my post. I am sorry for your losses though.

This is not really news. A capitalist aociety needs a constant population growth to feed money into the machine. Businesses can not grow if there are less people, they will shrink.
Immigration is needed if the current population is not reproducing at a rate that exceeds deaths to sustain everything.
But people can not afford or do not want morw kids. I am not aure boat loads of young males will solve anything either. So what to do about it? I have no clue. I wonder if this is what the last days of rome were like?

The state can't afford assisted dying though, the dignity & protocols will make it too expensive. People would have to self fund.

It's not selfish to not have kids if you think their quality of life will be poor. It is putting your (potential) kids wellbeing before your own maternal instincts. When have people ever put the needs of wider society before the needs of their own kids?