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In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

577 replies

TheMintCritic · 28/08/2025 20:30

Just came across this and thought it was wild… according to the ONS, by 2029 the number of deaths in the UK is expected to outnumber the number of births for the first time in decades.

  • Our fertility rate is only about 1.5 kids per woman, well below replacement.
  • Meanwhile, the population is ageing — all those baby boomers are moving into their 70s and 80s.
  • The result? The natural population growth turns negative, meaning any population increase will rely entirely on immigration.

It’s crazy to think that in just 4 years, births won’t even keep up with deaths. Makes you wonder what that’ll mean for schools, NHS, pensions, and housing.

OP posts:
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Pineapplewhip · 06/04/2026 20:12

Good! We cant take on more and more human beings on this planet. Frankly, the 60s when people had 4, 5, 6 even 7 children was fucking ludicrous!

RachelReevesFringe · 06/04/2026 20:13

Pineapplewhip · 06/04/2026 20:12

Good! We cant take on more and more human beings on this planet. Frankly, the 60s when people had 4, 5, 6 even 7 children was fucking ludicrous!

My grandfather was 1 of 13.

Papyrophile · 06/04/2026 20:19

My great grandfather was one of 12, born in 188x, and they all lived to a ripe old age, most into their 80s. About half married. But their reproduction rate, with two big wars and multiple recessions, was low as a family: I don't have a large family or lots of cousins.

AnPiscin · 07/04/2026 14:05

JHound · 06/04/2026 17:35

“If you have a blanket policy that people who don't work don't get support ”

Good job I didn’t say that then isn’t it.

Seeing as you either didn't read my post, or you didn't understand it, I'll say what I said again in another way.

With your approach you have two options -

have a blanket policy that people who don't work don't get support

or

thoroughly assess everyone who isn't working to determine if it's a can't or won't situation.

The second option is so expensive it would likely cost more than just giving everyone who isn't working support, which leaves you with the first option - ie, if you don't work you don't eat, with obvious consequences.

It's very easy to say 'Just deny certain people benefits.' It's much much harder to figure out who those 'certain people' should be without starving people to death.

CatHairEveryWhereNow · 07/04/2026 14:48

That, or children start looking after their elderly parents more.

It's probably why it's too late for most countries to add children - they're dependents in most developed countries till 18 or longer at time when two salaries are increasingly needed and elder care and childcare are increasingly hitting at similar times due rise in parenatal age due to economic factors.

I think demographers call it u curve - adding dependenets at young age when eldery dependents are already high puts further economic stress of working population - so they have fewer kids. Its' why immigration prefered as tend to be importing adult workers - so avoid adding 20 years of depedency that babies add. Downsides do included added stress fro reosurces like housing and jobs - which can also lead to downturn in fertlity rates.

Dmum very independent - house is set up she can internet shop and get delivers but recent fall show how precarious the whole set up is - there are health/social care systems in place in her area for support but they need someone well and up for navigating systems. If she moved near us - us having moved for work - we'll need to move when kids finished edcuation for work again. I couldn't have provided the level or support she iniatlly needed and worked full time round that.

Also old people have agency and views - they often don't want to move or set houses up till there is no choice - even when they've been in same position with their parents when it comes to it they are often very subbon and don't recongise how demanding they are being.

JHound · 07/04/2026 16:09

AnPiscin · 07/04/2026 14:05

Seeing as you either didn't read my post, or you didn't understand it, I'll say what I said again in another way.

With your approach you have two options -

have a blanket policy that people who don't work don't get support

or

thoroughly assess everyone who isn't working to determine if it's a can't or won't situation.

The second option is so expensive it would likely cost more than just giving everyone who isn't working support, which leaves you with the first option - ie, if you don't work you don't eat, with obvious consequences.

It's very easy to say 'Just deny certain people benefits.' It's much much harder to figure out who those 'certain people' should be without starving people to death.

My post was directly in response to a post stating that there are people who can't work or who won't work.

We already assess people's claims. If I quit my job and just decide I want the taxpayer to simply pay for me 'just because' I will have a hard time doing that.

If people won't work they should not receive support from their fellow citizens. It's this handwringing which leads to the lazy taking the piss. It's not impossible - countries such as France manage it.

And you can stop quoting me with your handwringing because my position is not changing.

AnPiscin · 07/04/2026 16:30

JHound · 07/04/2026 16:09

My post was directly in response to a post stating that there are people who can't work or who won't work.

We already assess people's claims. If I quit my job and just decide I want the taxpayer to simply pay for me 'just because' I will have a hard time doing that.

If people won't work they should not receive support from their fellow citizens. It's this handwringing which leads to the lazy taking the piss. It's not impossible - countries such as France manage it.

And you can stop quoting me with your handwringing because my position is not changing.

Edited

It's interesting that you call it handwringing, because there's no emotion involved, it's purely practical.

I'm surprised that France has somehow cracked it, when no other country seems to be able to. What's their approach?

pontivex · 08/04/2026 10:05

Badbadbunny · 06/04/2026 19:50

The govt should be creating jobs, or at least putting barriers to make imports more expensive, thus creating jobs in the UK for making stuff we subcontract to be made in the far east etc. As it is, the current govt are actively causing unemployment due to their policies - the opposite of what is needed. Where are the modern equivalent of the JTS/YTS/ETS schemes of the 80s to enourage firms to take on more staff? Where are the grants/incentives to encourage firms to grow? Where are the policies to rejuvenate all the run down regions? It's insane to be paying billions to people to sit on their arses when the govt could be paying substantially less to businesses to help them grow, take on more staff, etc. Where are the incentives to encourage people to start their own businesses - again in the 80s there were schemes which paid a weekly sum for people to become self employed for a specific period of time to help tide them over the inevitable "slow burn" until they got established. Now it's as if the govt actively hate businesses, especially small businesses and the self employed. The statistics show that small businesses employ more people than the big businesses yet they're constantly overlooked and penalised by successive governments.

Where are the 16/18/21 year olds who have the drive and wherewith-all to learn a trade? There are apprenticeships and grants available but it’s damn hard work and most seem to be expecting easy office jobs with high salaries after 3 years being bankrolled by their parents or by a loan that will never be repaid doing a pointless degree. Most then enter the job market at 21 with no skills but bearing an expensive but worthless degree refusing anything other than the job they think they are worthy of.

we just don’t need the amount of children already being produced. They are becoming a burden in their own right.

Badbadbunny · 08/04/2026 10:27

pontivex · 08/04/2026 10:05

Where are the 16/18/21 year olds who have the drive and wherewith-all to learn a trade? There are apprenticeships and grants available but it’s damn hard work and most seem to be expecting easy office jobs with high salaries after 3 years being bankrolled by their parents or by a loan that will never be repaid doing a pointless degree. Most then enter the job market at 21 with no skills but bearing an expensive but worthless degree refusing anything other than the job they think they are worthy of.

we just don’t need the amount of children already being produced. They are becoming a burden in their own right.

There really aren't the college nor workplace placements. It's very hard to find a college place and work placement around here. They're like gold dust. They go hand in hand. You can't get a college course place without having secured your own workplace placement. Most small business tradesmen, sole traders, etc., never take on apprentices anymore because of the red tape, bureaucracy, taxes, etc., so it's down to bigger firms to take them on, which is good if you've a big employer like BAE close by, but for towns/areas with no such big engineering employers, you're really down to just phoning around local garages, local plumbers, etc in the hope of striking lucky.

In my small accountancy practice, I've got around a dozen "tradesmen" clients, being electricians, garage mechanic, plumbers, decorators, etc - only one has taken on an apprentice in the last 20 years - they all say the same thing - too much red tape, tax/nic too high, useless college training, etc. They're all getting old and WILL all just give up their business when it comes to retire as they've no one to hand it over to. They're sad and angry about that, but successive governments have ruined the old fashioned apprentice/trade learning of the 80s and 90s. All efforts put into getting 50% to Unis and they completely forgot about manual skills/trades - Blair clearly thought it a wonderful wheeze to import Eastern European tradesmen to fill the gap instead of training our own!

The one who has an apprentice is an elderly electrician who specialised in alarm systems, now in his 70s! He took on an apprentice around five years ago. Didn't plan on doing so, but his next door neighbour's son showed interest, and he knew the lad was a decent lad from a nice family, so he went down the rabbit hole of trying to wade through the bureaucracy to find out how to take him on, resulting in numerous phone calls to the local college (who he said were as helpful as a chocolate fireguard as they only wanted to deal with bigger firms, not a "one off"), all the employment/H&S policies etc which he had to work out for himself as the college offered no support, and finally got all the ducks in a row to take on the lad. Five years later, the "lad" is now fully qualified electrician and is about to take over the business as the guy is now ready to retire. He's a lovely lad, hard working, and the older guy is happy just to give him the business for nothing. That's how it should be, how it always used to be with "one man bands", but the obstacles and bureaucracy over the past 20-30 years has killed it stone dead.

Loads of youngsters want to learn a trade or manual skill, but it's an uphill battle for them to secure a rare placement and a rare college space.

Papyrophile · 08/04/2026 13:34

I have one (IMO) useful suggestion for the shortage in skilled trades, and that is to allow 14 year olds to step across from the academic GCSE ladder once they have achieved good proficiency levels in Maths and English to a core set of C&G courses around construction trades and engineering. It would make some classes easier to teach because there's an early exit and something more practical ahead, whether you kept them in technical secondary schools or in UTCs.

Another useful bonus would be that it would provide useful work for skilled but ageing tradies from their 50s onwards, when backs and knees start to hurt and a full day on the tools is too much. The feminisation of education is a real turn-off for lots of lads.

jasflowers · 08/04/2026 14:54

Papyrophile · 08/04/2026 13:34

I have one (IMO) useful suggestion for the shortage in skilled trades, and that is to allow 14 year olds to step across from the academic GCSE ladder once they have achieved good proficiency levels in Maths and English to a core set of C&G courses around construction trades and engineering. It would make some classes easier to teach because there's an early exit and something more practical ahead, whether you kept them in technical secondary schools or in UTCs.

Another useful bonus would be that it would provide useful work for skilled but ageing tradies from their 50s onwards, when backs and knees start to hurt and a full day on the tools is too much. The feminisation of education is a real turn-off for lots of lads.

That can already happen, at 14yo children can move across to vocational training, at 16, can do T levels.

Trouble is, though a lot of 'trades have learnt on the job, they have no formal qualifications and the ones that do, such as gas, electricians or joiners, can earn far more on consultancy or as our friend has done, doing 3 days a week.

So this opening for children is limited.

Also, why would a, say joiner, train up a youngster, who then leaves and becomes his competition?

Strawberriesandpears · 09/04/2026 11:02

I think perhaps increasingly those with money will have the best old age. I have no family (not through choice) but I do have wealth (and nobody to leave it to!) so I intend to spend it all to make myself as comfortable as possible.

BIossomtoes · 09/04/2026 11:16

Strawberriesandpears · 09/04/2026 11:02

I think perhaps increasingly those with money will have the best old age. I have no family (not through choice) but I do have wealth (and nobody to leave it to!) so I intend to spend it all to make myself as comfortable as possible.

Good for you. I genuinely hope you have a wonderful retirement.

Strawberriesandpears · 09/04/2026 11:19

BIossomtoes · 09/04/2026 11:16

Good for you. I genuinely hope you have a wonderful retirement.

Thank you. I do feel guilt though - like I am not contributing to society or something. I'd like to perhaps get involved with more voluntary work when I am older so that I am staying active, giving something back and perhaps doing my bit to keep the country running even though there are fewer people in it!

BIossomtoes · 09/04/2026 11:36

Don’t feel guilty. My dad’s mantra was “Do it while you can”, the wisdom of which has become abundantly clear to us recently. Do everything you dream of and enjoy it. Life is short.

Lalgarh · 10/04/2026 12:35

Looks like it's happening in the US as well

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/the-us-fertility-rate-dropped-again-whats-the-big-deal-040100863.html

This is the sort of thing that JD Vance is fretting about. Though he's got a 4th on the way so he shouldn't really be.

There was something a while back about the time of Jane Austen. Fertility without contraception was of course high (something like 6 kids per married woman) but only about 40% of women actually married, hence the fear of poverty stricken spinsterism running through her books

The U.S. fertility rate dropped again. What's the big deal?

Fertility rates have been declining for years. The trend has some major health and economic implications — both good and bad.

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/the-us-fertility-rate-dropped-again-whats-the-big-deal-040100863.html

GertrudePerkinsPaperyThing · 10/04/2026 12:37

I don’t know why people are upset both about this and about immigration/ say “oh we’re too crowded”.

JHound · 10/04/2026 15:32

Lalgarh · 10/04/2026 12:35

Looks like it's happening in the US as well

https://uk.style.yahoo.com/the-us-fertility-rate-dropped-again-whats-the-big-deal-040100863.html

This is the sort of thing that JD Vance is fretting about. Though he's got a 4th on the way so he shouldn't really be.

There was something a while back about the time of Jane Austen. Fertility without contraception was of course high (something like 6 kids per married woman) but only about 40% of women actually married, hence the fear of poverty stricken spinsterism running through her books

It's happening globally. Bar some African countries the entire globe is dealing with falling birth rates.

It cannot be true that only 40% of women married in that era?

Lalgarh · 24/04/2026 23:28

Bit of number crunching from the FT. Chinas working age population is set to drop by one-third I think it said

Largest population drops over history

Population collapses of yore https://share.google/pb5cHozMvAkkgGByl

I can't seem to get the archive version to load currently

Hallamule · 24/04/2026 23:32

sundayfundayclub · 28/08/2025 22:12

The population forever growing is unsustainable we can't just grow forever. Where will everyone live and what will they eat?

Who is talking about forever growth?

A shrinking but older population is completely unaffordable.

Lucky we are an attractive destination for immigrants then eh?

TheSmallAssassin · 24/04/2026 23:36

It's probably already been said somewhere on this thread, but don't forget we've got the baby boomer bulge going through, they're all getting elderly, so will bump up the death rate.

waowwwwww · 28/04/2026 19:51

The population needs to decrease, there are especially too many elderly and economically inactive. Hopefully boomers dying off will balance out fewer children being born

TheMintCritic · 29/04/2026 06:42

But the aging population will replace the boomers and that’s the point. It’s not like once they die the country will be younger. There are people to fill their place we’re all getting older.

OP posts:
waowwwwww · 29/04/2026 07:07

Hopefully there will be advances with robotics/automation over the next few years. I’d rather have my arse wiped by a robot than a person if it comes to that. No one wants to care for the elderly anyway.

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