In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

[TheMintCritic]

Just came across this and thought it was wild… according to the ONS, by 2029 the number of deaths in the UK is expected to outnumber the number of births for the first time in decades.

• Our fertility rate is only about 1.5 kids per woman, well below replacement.
• Meanwhile, the population is ageing — all those baby boomers are moving into their 70s and 80s.
• The result? The natural population growth turns negative, meaning any population increase will rely entirely on immigration.

It’s crazy to think that in just 4 years, births won’t even keep up with deaths. Makes you wonder what that’ll mean for schools, NHS, pensions, and housing.

For minimum wage!

I think there are some posters who think aging population will dissappear with baby boomers - not realised that every generation is smaller than one before - we've been under replacement level for births for 50 years.

BBC:More UK deaths than births expected every year from now on, ONS projects

The UK population is now expected to grow at a slower rate than previously thought, reaching 71 million by 2034, owing to a sharp fall in migration.
Declining fertility rates also mean the number of children in the UK is expected to fall in the next decade while pensioners are expected to grow faster than working age adults.
Previous projections suggested the population would continue to grow until 2096, but now "the population is projected to peak in the 2050s before decreasing," James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections, said.
...

This is far slower than the growth seen in the previous decade due to people having fewer children and having them later in life.
Between mid-2024 and mid-2034, the ONS projects:
6.4 million people will be born
6.9 million people will die
7.3 million will immigrate to the UK on a long-term basis
5.1 million people will emigrate long-term from the UK
Deaths are projected to outnumber births by nearly half a million people in that 10-year period.

We're not the first country to have more detahs than births - many seem to have "demographic drag," where population growth relies entirely on migration. This shift often results in a shrinking workforce, increased pressure on public services, and slower GDP growth.

economics observatory:How could falling birth rates reshape the global economy?