In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

[TheMintCritic]

Just came across this and thought it was wild… according to the ONS, by 2029 the number of deaths in the UK is expected to outnumber the number of births for the first time in decades.

• Our fertility rate is only about 1.5 kids per woman, well below replacement.
• Meanwhile, the population is ageing — all those baby boomers are moving into their 70s and 80s.
• The result? The natural population growth turns negative, meaning any population increase will rely entirely on immigration.

It’s crazy to think that in just 4 years, births won’t even keep up with deaths. Makes you wonder what that’ll mean for schools, NHS, pensions, and housing.

They don't think it applies to them.

There may be mass shortages of all essential items, not least food and medicine, because there aren't people to produce them. There may be a surplus of housing stock, but not enough people with the skills and money to maintain them in a liveable condition There are plenty of jobs available now, but who is realistically going to choose to be a bin man when there is so much other choice of employment? The NHS will be a thing of the past, ditto the state pension, because there are not enough workers to pay for it (we are quite close to this point already, some think 15 years). There will quite literally be no one to wipe their bums and spoon-fed them complan when dementia sets in, if they live that long.

But somehow none of it will affect them.

@NoKidsSendDogs

your post about people getting old and dying first. We haven't increased healthy life expectancy, we just got better at keeping son people alive longer.

sick

Yea nice enough to think that way. But no chance - eg.,Labour have fcked me over and there’s no way I’m giving out more than I need to whilst they’re in power. I’m not a ‘boomer’, I’m also not a constant source of funds to be drained by this envy ridden socialist gvt. They need to clamp down on huge corporations not paying tax. Starbucks anyone?

I don't blame Baby Boomers or any other cohort from voting out of self-interest.

What I do find reprehensible if when right wing parties (who rely on the votes of older generations) run on platforms that simultaneously:

• protect generous state pensions, and similar economic protections for older people;

• are anti-worker and pro-business, which has led to massive wealth inequality and a COL that does not facilitate large familiies;

• cut child benefits; and

• propose huge cuts in immigration (the temporary band-aid solutions we've been applying).

On that last bullet, we have previously seldom seen right wing parties "make good" or their promises to cut immigration- presumably because they know it helps support the state pension and alike. It'll be interesting to see what happens if Reform gets in - are they just using anti-immigration rhetoric to gain votes without intending to act on it? Probably. But I don't think we can rule out them following through, and letting everyone who isnt mega-rich absord the massive financial hit (which, of course, will likely further reduce the birth rate...)

I too am firmly in the "this is good" camp. The only reason the establishment wants us to keep having kids, is to keep the capitalist machine running. They don't give one single fuck about the elderly, or their care.

We are in end stage capitalism. Having children NOW, is deeply selfish. Look at what we're leaving them with, and look at how fucked up things are for Gen Z and GenAlpha kids. Climate change is catastrophic, femicide is off the charts, and too governments are complicit, if not directly involved with causing genocide.

The CoL is atrocious. Our infrastructure is failing, racism is rampant, and patriarchy has made a right bloody mess of things, and continuing to get worse. Paedo-sadism has been normalised.

We are past the point of no return. I am glad the birth is falling.

Migration is the answer, its much better for the planet than people having children

You think doctors, pharmacists and drugs will somehow cease to exist in my lifetime?

@NoKidsSendDogs Who said they wouldn't exist but you think shortages of workers in healthcare won't increase, why is that? Do you really think the NHS will still exist in its current form i.e having current drugs available for all?

Migration is the answer, its much better for the planet than people having children

I've heard that this isn't that popular though...

Sure, a caramel machiatto, please.

(But also, if you think this Labour government is "socialist" then I don't know what to say - they're pretty far from. Unfortunately, every time they try to make painful but needed cuts, they cower to public backlash which, oddly, seems to come from the right as much as the left).

Sadly, no

It won’t be bin men who are out of a job. As AI gets more sophisticated and takes over white collar jobs my prediction is that jobs it can’t do will be highly sought after. Binmen, plumbers, electricians, hairdressers, etc will be employment royalty when the range of jobs that actually require humans decreases.

@TinyIsMyNewt I will certainly be angry if people vote for Reform. People would rather believe lies rather than acknowledge hard truths.

Perhaps an IMF bailout will be a good thing in terms of waking people up.

@IllBeLookingAtTheMoon people also forget that much of the West will want young people and many are already trying to attract them so we will lose talent as some other countries will offer them more opportunity.

I've already said if I can't wipe my bum or feed myself I would be availing myself of assisted suicide, I have a living will which covers all of that and I genuinely don't see the point in existing for the sake of existing. Life is for living.

I'm also not going to have kids I dont want for the sake of humanity, bc, well, humanity is just not that special. Humanity is also cruel, destructive and literal plague on this planet so I just can't be too sad about a dying population or declining birth rates Yeah, it might get hard for a while for some but it is what it is. I stand by what I said and I'm not worried for myself. The beauty about not having kids is that I don't have to care about future generations.

Of course they are socialist. Like every Labour government - and every Labour PM we’ve had . They’re all Fabian apostles. It’s in the Fabian blood.

‘We are affiliated to the Labour party and work very closely with Labour politicians, as well as influencing debate across the political spectrum. Every Labour prime minister has been a Fabian and today 100s of Labour politicians are members of the society, including Labour leader Keir Starmer MP and more than half his cabinet, as well as senior figures in devolved and local government. Our elected executive committee currently includes five Labour frontbenchers.’

But also, if you think this Labour government is "socialist" then I don't know what to say - they're pretty far from. Unfortunately, every time they try to make painful but needed cuts, they cower to public backlash which, oddly, seems to come from the right as much as the left).

I don't understand what people want labour to do, they have tried to make cuts as you say.

They need to clamp down on huge corporations not paying tax. Starbucks anyone?

How does one country clamp down on huge multinational corporations?

I am not surprised, good old fashioned traditions are going out the door from my generation.

I think it’s a good thing. The earth is struggling to exist with the current population. Not to mention with advances in technology less jobs are needed which leaves so many jobless.

The beauty about not having kids is that I don't have to care about future generations.

How lovely

Statistically predictable, birth rate has been dropping since 1960s. The baby boomers peak years are now reaching their 70s so there will be more people dying because there are more people in the 70-80 age range.

In addition, the advent of the NHS massively reduced infant and childhood mortality has created a less healthy population. Then in the 1960s birth control and legalised abortion became available resulting in rapid drop of birth rate.

40 yrs ago there was panic about over population in the future. The world population is still increasing as is the UKs net population. Some may argue depopulation will be beneficial longterm. Short term maybe not so good. It is a good argument for encouraging legal immigration. I’m almost retired but my job is being taken over by a similarly qualified immigrant. So I’m not a net loss.

Make them pay the correct amount of tax in this country. They currently pay peanuts.

I've already said if I can't wipe my bum or feed myself I would be availing myself of assisted suicide

It's very easy to say this & remember you will likely have to commit before you get to the stage of not being able to feed or clean yourself.

While I agree the capitalism is a huge causal factor, I don't understand the rationale in supporting a collapsing birthrate, given that it makes meaningfulnsocial spending all-but-impossible.

And I don't agree that capitalism has demanded that people have more and more children - if anything, it has been indifferent to or actively embraced falling birthrates, on the basis that it allows cheap importing of labour instead.

Capitalism has failed (or, at least, appears to be on the precipice). Yes, a much fairer distribution of wealth is needed and is likely a part of the solution to the crisis, but we should be making the case for that instead of embracing disaster. Unless I misunderstand you, I think you're just wanting to watch the world burn and revel in it - which I don't think is a progressive attitude.

Yes because putting disabled people out of work is a real priority

And cutting funding for disabled children that won't have a knock on effect at all will it