In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

[TheMintCritic]

Just came across this and thought it was wild… according to the ONS, by 2029 the number of deaths in the UK is expected to outnumber the number of births for the first time in decades.

• Our fertility rate is only about 1.5 kids per woman, well below replacement.
• Meanwhile, the population is ageing — all those baby boomers are moving into their 70s and 80s.
• The result? The natural population growth turns negative, meaning any population increase will rely entirely on immigration.

It’s crazy to think that in just 4 years, births won’t even keep up with deaths. Makes you wonder what that’ll mean for schools, NHS, pensions, and housing.

I think as a society we have a huge range of issues that put both sexes off having kids. As I mentioned before, father's not sticking around or paying for children once they leave which seems to be the norm, huge costs in childcare (fine because they should be paid more and it's only because it's classed as a care role they haven't been), women not getting jobs with good pay - gender pay gap is still 9% and women then have leave for maternity, low pension in comparison etc, which when added to being left alone with kids all makes it a very risky move for any woman.
Men are being told they should have a younger model every 10 years if not sooner. They are being told to be the big provider, strong, macho, not intelligent but fierce. A lot are using unregulated steroids which causes huge mental health issues and anger - displayed on streets, jump in femicide figures and huge amounts of lads in prison - also a big reason many women won't go near them.
A lot of this can be traced back to big businesses selling things to both sexes on social media as wellness amongst other lifestyle choices, for example.

I do agree with that. I myself have lost hope for the future, and that is very sad.

At least we can see what the other countries who got there first are doing to manage matters.

Other countries have tried to mitigate it somewhat, we are doing nothing.

Is anywhere actually managing?

For me it is less the sentiment but the observables that are distressing. For example I find it disturbing that many parents of disabled children suffering rather than people being sad parents of disabled people are suffering. People are looking at what is and making choices based on that. Doesn’t it make sense to be disturbed by what is not how people feel about it?

I don’t think it’s a bad thing. Less pressure on the NHS and more housing stock meaning reduced prices. It will also mean immigration will have a positive effect on the country.

Both are distressing. There is a lack of support for parents and it is awful. But it's awful also that people are looking at the situation and deciding it's so bad that they'd rather end their family line than risk having children.

We have immigration propring things up and we have domne and will likelyagain raise the retirment age which is already above many other countries in similar positions have.

There are various inciatives to try and ecounage people to be healthier - so they have more active old age with varying/limited degree of success - some moves and discssions round how to elder proff public places though not yet much actual movements- and they've brought in the euthanasia bill.

So I think they've been tinckering - but lets be honest bristish public dosen't want drastic changes or to really deal with the implications we will be facing so polticans have been kicking the can down the road hoping it's the next government problem.

I'm surprised they don't already.

Aging population means there will be more social and health care needs to be met - not less.

Plus housing stock is often underused and poorly maintained by older populations - there few incentives to downsize currently.

Japan done okay for a long while - there elderly seem to be quite health compared to ours - but they are increasingly going to struggle and may have to turn to immigration.

I don't think anyone has great answers yet - because it's not an easy issue to solve - but we can watch other and learn from their mistakes.

@Digdongdoo

Well Japan is probably the best example of a country planning for it but they are still having issues.

Less pressure on the NHS

No, more pressure on the NHS

So I think they've been tinckering - but lets be honest bristish public dosen't want drastic changes or to really deal with the implications we will be facing so polticans have been kicking the can down the road hoping it's the next government problem.

And why Reform are popular because voters prefer the lies

It's not only service charges. Some of them are really unpleasant places for "younger" active older people. The thing is that people who moved in to them when built say 20-30 years ago, and were fit/active etc at that time are now still there, now infirm, some with dementia setting in, etc., and "fit/healthy" 60 year olds don't want to live with them.

OH and I have been looking (aged 60) as we want to downsize and have a small flat so that we can travel etc without having to deal with house repairs, gardening etc. In theory an over 55 block suits us. But, good God, some of them are grim, more like old folks homes, corridors smelling of wee, random elderly people walking around looking lost, etc. Likewise the flats themselves are often in need of a complete makeover despite being only 20-30 years old, i.e. complete new kitchens and bathrooms, redecoration, new carpets throughout etc as a minimum. Yet the owners (or their descendants) still expect top whack for them, despite literally nothing being done in decades such as cleaning, decorating, replacing damaged carpets or damaged kitchen units/appliances.

We're now really only looking at new complexes, which are mostly McCarthy & Stone, and yes, we know exactly what we are getting into, i.e. potential loss of value, high service/management charges, etc., but they're just a lot nicer and currently occupied mostly by younger "old" people who are still fit and healthy, and yes, I know it will be different in 20 years time as the occupants all get older.

Just putting a different point of view that it's not all about management charges that the older blocks aren't popular. Older people wanting to move are more likely to be newly retired etc and they don't want to live in "old folks' homes" alongside those who are now 80 or 90+. The age range is simply too wide. There's one hell of a difference between a typical 55 year old and a typical 80 year old.

It's quite scary really that nowhere has found a work around...

It should be allowed to happen, many people my age can’t afford to buy a home. Those younger than me (Gen Z) have no chance. Why should older homeowners benefit by prices rising and preventing younger generations being able to buy?

Yes, we need a managed stagnation. Let inflation catch up with house prices. For my kids sake I hope it happens because we likely won't have the spare cash to help them!

This is very clear and well explained. Might help those leaning into racism/reform understand what issues we have instead of blaming migrants for everything instead of looking “closer to home” as it were.

The ‘boomer’ years after the war (of which I just scrape in) saw a really big birth boom, those people are now dying off. Birth rate was almost 4 kids per mother in the 50s, now it’s less than 2. Of course there will be more dying than being born! But surely that is a good thing ? Less old people to be supported, less pensions, more people inheriting wealth from the boomers?

The baby boom is considered to last from 1945-1965. Not even all those people qualify for pensions yet.

The birth rate didn’t hit an average of three, let alone four.

Gen x after baby boomers is larger than next generation below them and so on plus we've had immigration to prop up tax base - and they stay and age - so actually the ratio of workers to dependents stays on low side so it's not an issue that goes away when the baby boomers are gone.

Though have read house prices may face 1-2% downward pressure if population isn't kept high by immigration. Current projection are UK population will continue grow due to immigration for next decade but those are just projections.

Also most people inherit around late 50/early 60s so it often won't help with house price costs plus inheritance taxes are likely to go up as government needs more income to deal with additional health and social burden.

That’s not how I remember it - the younger you were the more you suffered during Covid!
My kids missed out on loads, their cousins had a very reduced Uni experience, their lives ground to a halt to protect the old and sick. It’s pretty well documented that the effects of lockdowns are still being seen in our school children.
We had a very elderly relative in a home during the whole thing - they were furious at being quarantined in there, and though the restrictions were far too much.

Well if you feel that way, you need to vote for the government that will allow it.

Until then, we are where we are.