In 4 years, 2029, UK deaths will exceed births!

[TheMintCritic]

Just came across this and thought it was wild… according to the ONS, by 2029 the number of deaths in the UK is expected to outnumber the number of births for the first time in decades.

• Our fertility rate is only about 1.5 kids per woman, well below replacement.
• Meanwhile, the population is ageing — all those baby boomers are moving into their 70s and 80s.
• The result? The natural population growth turns negative, meaning any population increase will rely entirely on immigration.

It’s crazy to think that in just 4 years, births won’t even keep up with deaths. Makes you wonder what that’ll mean for schools, NHS, pensions, and housing.

I agree there are a lot of things to consider, but, again, most people make it work even if it's not ideal. I worry that there's an attitude that you must be able to provide the absolute best or you don't have the right to be a parent.

Yes, definitely. To be honest, that is one of the reasons I am reluctant to have a child (especially as I would be an older parent). I don't want to possibly create a human being with a disability which could potentially make both our lives very difficult. I'd also then have to live with the constant worry of what would happen to them after my death. In addition, it would make planning for my own old age harder, especially if I had to give up work to care for the child, as I wouldn't be able to save as much towards my own elderly care. And I absolutely couldn't cope if I became a single parent, as I'd have no wider support network.

What made you think I was worried about you or everyone else?

You're not, that's my point. The people who are worried are worried about the future of their OWN families, not the whole human race, so for those of us who dont have kids to deal with it's perfectly valid not to be worried bc we don't have anybody to be worried about. Get it?

Did you hit the booze last night? How on earth do you know how I feel about vegans?!

I didn't say you, I said people on mumsnet. We all saw the innocent post from a woman asking for vegan fish and chips and the 500 responses from mostly self righteous, hypocrite moms, giving people shit for being vegan. Then again, I wouldn’t expect people who constantly complain about the future of their children in the same breath as asking if they should have their 5th, to understand hypocrisy or irony.

@Badbadbunny why so much denial & then when a truth is pointed out it's vitriol.

I understand worries about disabilities but my visceral reaction to your post is to think that, in fact, children with disabilities are just as wonderful and precious as children without. The idea of avoiding having children entirely because of a fear of having a disabled child does not sit right with me at all. I know that's not what you meant, but it's how it comes across to me.

Anyone can have a child with a disability at any age. It is not a tragedy or an awful thing.

@NoKidsSendDogs No you don't get it. I care about others outside of my family, less so for eejits.

No idea why you are still prattling on about vegans.

Depends what “make it work” means. Humans can endure a variety of awful conditions from extreme diets to child abuse. We can live in misery for decades. Additionally most people do not have a village, or even a society that respects motherhood or parenting. All this can and should play a part in most people’s choices.

I think people happy with their lives who want to be parents are probably going to do it. Being squeezed completely economically and knowing future children will have to be more competitive is just a reality. I don’t think being smart about your decision means you think you need to be the best. I honestly don’t think most people want perfection.

I'm not talking about awful conditions, I'm talking about not perfect - maybe not a lot of money, a house that's too small etc. Stuff that when I was a kid would have been seen as totally normal. I get the sense that now it's seen as a sort of failure not to provide top notch everything.

The only ones that seem to not retain value are the ones specifically for the elderly to purchase - I was listening to a man on R4 saying they sold it about £100k under what his father had bought it for just a few years earlier and he felt lucky getting that. I think a lot of those are going to be very empty as the service charges become clear and people try to live in them longer.

I believe all children should be precious, loved and have worth and value. I also see that people don’t really want to fund the disabled. Unless you have a great deal of money and support things will be difficult. I think not being able to support a child whatever their ability is a valid reason not to have one. I honestly wish we gave more support to parents but alas we are where we are. With falling birth rates and the desire to uphold our current model of globalisation and capitalism I would be very scared for future children who cannot support themselves for whatever reason.

@AnPiscin I agree with you, how many threads on here when people ask about having another dc, reducing hours, etc have responses like can you afford uni for your dc, a house deposit, are you saving for their pension. The message is very much you a not a responsible parent if you don't do this.

If people have entirely lost faith in the world to the extent that they can't have a family, then that's truly awful. In the past, people brought children into the world in the most precarious of situations. Whether you think that's right or wrong, they at least had some faith that they could build a future for the next generation. The idea that people have just cut themselves off and think there's no hope scares me tbh.

Sorry but disability absolutely can be tragic and awful. For the both the disabled person and those who care for them. It's wise to consider the possibility when becoming a parent.

There are so many government decisions that have contributed to this.

Consider the visa rules brought in for spouses of Britons in 2012. Now a Briton cannot bring in his foreign wife unless he can prove he has been earning over £38k a year for over 6 months. Realistically, if you are a Briton living overseas with your foreign spouse and your children, you face a separation of at least six months plus the three months it takes for the application to be considered (spouse must apply from abroad), so that means breaking up your family and being separated from your kids for one parent for an absolute minimum of 9-10 months, before we consider that over 90% of these expensive applications are rejected the first time amd once appeals and so on are done you might have to break up your family for more than a year- for no other reason than to satisfy the whims of the Home Office.

Realistically, if you are a Briton living abroad with your kids, you are staying there forever now, de facto exiled from your own country, and now contributing to that economy, and your kids even if they have British citizenship will also have no ties here to attract them back as adults working to support the huge inverted triangle created by so many pensioners and so few earners.

The world is different now from when you or I were children. We have to adapt to the system. Childcare costs, two working parents, COL, AI and whatever else the future throws at us. I don’t think all people deciding not to have children are doing it because they want the top notch of everything. They want their children to have a fighting chance for a good life and not be serfs, whatever that might mean to them. Also many of us grew up in relative poverty and did not like it so why would we want that for our own children.

You won’t like this either but even if someone wants a lifestyle you don’t think is necessary for their children I believe that is their right. Perhaps that is the lifestyle they would feel they could parent effectively in? They are not here to just make future labourers for corporations.

Equally a child can become ill, die, be kidnapped, whatever.

Shit happens. But disability in itself is not a tragedy.

awful. In the past, people brought children into the world in the most precarious of situations.

this still happens, look at the birth rate in Gaza.

I agree but I think there is a lot of reason to have lost hope and it is logical. In the past many people did not have a choice either and societally it was expected to have children. I think religion too played a big part.

Instead of blaming individual though I think we need to look at society

Disability in itself can be a tragedy. You obviously aren't considering the whole spectrum of what disability can look like.

And yes, anything can happen. Which is why it is wise to consider lots of scenarios when planning a family. The number (if any) of children you have absolutely impacts ability to cope.

I totally agree that it's a person's right to want a certain lifestyle for their children. What concerns me is the lack of hope - the idea that it's just not possible to provide a good life, that everyone is going to be serfs and labourers. It's genuinely worrying to think that there are adults who have no vision of a better future, to the extent that they may want children but prevent themselves from having them on the belief that those children's lives won't be worth living.

I'm not blaming anyone. I'm just looking at the sentiment that's being expressed and finding it quite disturbing.

Having taught children with severe disabilities and having a number of people in my family with disabilities, I am in fact considering the whole spectrum. The people I love are people, not tragedies.

I agree but I think there is a lot of reason to have lost hope and it is logical

People have lost hope which is sad

I understand your viewpoint. It certainly wouldn't have put me off having a child if I had met my partner at a younger age, but I didn't, and I would now be an older parent which does increase the risk.

I've read some of the threads over on the SN board and there are some really heart breaking situations that I know I couldn't cope with if they were my reality.

I have a colleague who has a disabled boy. The poor little chap endures a lot. He's always at hospital appointments and I know he gets frustrated and upset about the things his condition prevents him from doing. He won't ever be able to live independently, and he doesn't have any extended family, so once his parents are gone, he will be largely on his own as a vulnerable adult. That would worry me greatly if he were my son.

I think we may be stuck now - adding more young adds addition burden to families and economy as they are additional dependents for 18 years and there already a lot of older dependents to support.

Propping up with immigrations means house prices continue to rise/rents stay high and servcies have to stretch further - making it harder for people to have famils depressing the birth rate - but is attractive for governmenst as it increased the taxable population and fills in sectors with skills/job gaps so short term fixes the problem - long term hides decreasing birth rates and add people at end of their working lives to the older dependent population to support.

Once smaller families become the norm - it's much harder to get birth rate up as socailally it becomes less acceptable to have larger families.

I think economcially countries that have passed that barrier do tend to add to natonal debt and see economic slow downs. At least we can see what the other countries who got there first are doing to manage matters.