Iran - full evacuation of Tehran?

[Fitasafiddle1]

Genuinely finding it hard to sleep now having seen the news that Tehran - a population of 10 million are being urgently advised to leave. Is anyone else feeling very concerned (and nervous) watching what is now taking place in the ME? It is being reported that Israel have ‘full ariel control’ of Iran?

www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-has-full-control-of-tehrans-airspace-over-100-missile-launchers-destroyed-idf-says/

www.euronews.com/2025/06/17/trump-hints-at-major-israeli-offensive-as-he-urges-all-of-tehran-to-evacuate-immediately

https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/liveblog/2025/6/17/live-israel-iran-trade-attacks-trump-orders-residents-of-tehran-to-flee

Agree with this.

Israel controls the borders of Gaza, and all its imports. So yes, Gaza would have starved without its 'intervention' but what other options are there when you've got a state in the middle of another state? And not just any state, but a paramilitary state?

Egypt has always refused to get involved because it doesn't want to get bombed by Israel either. (Plus it can't afford to take in a massive exodus of refugees, it can barely feed its own people).

Hamas is a vile terrorist organisation, but like the IRA, it didn't exactly spring into being from nowhere.

I think you are missing the historical facts a little here. Gaza has never been a ‘state’ it’s only very recently been referred to as one. It is a territory that has had multiple different countries involved. It has a mixed heritage of many cultures and influences.

Hamas were never really running the country in the way you imagine a government might. The people of Gaza require a solution, as they are sandwiched between two countries both of whom do not want them to be there due to the security risks.

I know - but regardless of what they're technically known as, Gaza is a separate 'territory' within Israel. And I know re Hamas, hence why they're not internationally recognised as a government. But you know what brings people together (as every politician knows)? Uniting against a common enemy, and for Gaza/Hamas, the enemy in this case is obviously Israel.

Like I said upthread - I honestly don't think there's a solution to this (not one that's acceptable to ordinary decent human beings anyway). And I think Israel will eventually wipe Gaza out and resettle it. It's whether they can persuade the rest of the world that this is done 'humanely' that we will have to wait and see.

An excellent article in The Guardian explaining Trump’s end game here.

Europe must really take heed and unite to manage this situation and Trump’s direct associations with Putin.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/17/trump-iran-g7-europe-israel-deal?CMP=oth_b-aplnews_d-5

Would you say there’s zero chance of this?

I’d like women to reach their aims, re protests a couple of years ago.

Given Gaza has one of the highest unemployment statistics of anywhere in the world, with no effort made by Hamas to improve prosperity or standards of living, it’s not clear to me how they would ever pay for imports even if they could be delivered. Aid is mainly donated by the US, Israel, UK and UN…. One could argue they would have starved a long time ago without this assistance.

It sounds like you think Israel should be forced to live in fear indefinitely and to be ‘annihilated’ at some point? Would you want this to happen to our country? Would you expect our government to create some security? To protect the nation? I don’t know why anyone would think it’s okay for Hamas to wager war relentlessly, and then to ruthlessly murder and rape innocent civilians.

I completely agree that something needs to be done for the people of Gaza, but honestly it is not helping anyone allowing a murdering militia to run amok in this way. They ALL deserve and require security no?

They're a city state - OK 'territory' - of 2 million people with no way of supporting themselves. Even the sea is controlled by Israel. So it's not surprising they're unemployed - so would everyone be in Dubai (for example) if the UAE Royal family didn't have billions and billions of dirhams to throw at it. The Middle East was historically very poor before oil was found. It's not surprising that Gazans blame Israel for their poverty - and what solution does Hamas actually have? Gaza has no access to farming or minerals or forest, so nothing to manufacture. I suppose they could create a services-based industry but they'd be competing against, well, us for that. Also this problem has existed long before Hamas came to power.

So surely a better option would be to negotiate with Israel and Egypt? A rational and coherent government could have been appointed, a solution could have been brokered. Better prospects may have been possible, I can’t see how killing Israelis was going to solve any issues at all. It was only going to increase tension with the price being paid by the people of Gaza. The politics of lunacy and terrorism is not the way forward is it?

I don't think that Israel should be forced to live in fear, no. But it goes both ways. At the moment, it's very much Gaza who must be living in the most horrific fear. They have nowhere to run. Israel is much, much mightier a force than Gaza. Oct 7th was a horrific atrocity, but killing 30K Gazan civilians, including all the babies who are starving to death, is just as horrific. They're not Hamas. Two wrongs don't make a right.

I don't have the answers. I don't think there are any. But it's clear that Israel will come out on top, whatever happens. If I lived in Gaza, I'd be expecting to either die, or to try and flee somewhere like the UK (where I'd be unwanted and victimised by Farage and his nasty acolytes but that's another story). But they can't even get out of the country so they actually only have option one: death.

yeah I think there is zero chance of Iran becoming peaceful democratic country after this intervention

it is unfortunately wishful thinking

the Islamic revolution didn’t happen out of the blue. Large majority supported and still supports the radical Islamic way of life (again look at other countries …)

it takes a lot more than to just overthrow a government. Even 20 years occupation of Afghanistan didn’t fundamentally change anything

I think it changed things but only whilst there and the US understandably doesn’t want to do that again.

There are periods where women have more freedoms but it’s very hard to get to.

But previous administrations did try and negotiate with Israel and Egypt. Those negotiations never got anyone what they wanted, clearly.

I'm also wondering which bit of anything I've said leads you to think I want Israel 'annihilated' as per your remark above? Could you highlight that to me, please, as I certainly had no intention of saying any such thing.

Thank you for running - for once - reasoned devate. Rare to see on MN!

Paragraph 1 - 100% agree, nobody wants innocent children hurt or killed and I would add that they shouldn't suffer the psychological abuse of being brainwashed and militarised from the cradle. It also breaks my heart that Israelis grow up knowing that at 18 they have to go into the army and they actually might die defending their actual home and homeland.

Paragraph 2 - my opinion is that there are two ministers in Israel's government who are an absolute disgrace and have no business being anywhere near government. Unfortunately they have Netanyahu in an armlock, as if removed they will collapse the coalition. Netanyahu has many flaws, I am no fan and would not vote for him. He gets some things very right and some things very wrong: he is human. I genuinely don't believe he is the monster he is painted as by all the people on these threads who speak with utter hate and repeat modern versions of blood libels. Once people show hate, for me I close down and the conversation is over.

Paragraph 3 & 4 - wholeheartedly agree re Hamas and Gaza needing a competent government

Paragraph 5 - re people of Gaza - unfortunately I do believe that the vast majority are brainwashed and radicalised so it will take a long time. If a new election was called they are likely to choose another radical anti-Israel government. They currently hate Hamas for what Hamas has done including seizing and withholding food supplies, but they are very far from wanting peace with Israel. This is because for generations they have been kept deprived by Iran, Muslim Brotherhood and proxies, and told that their situation is all the fault of the Israelis who stole their country. This is not historical accuracy - history and borders are complex -but they believe it. This will take generations to undo the radicalisation.

Paragraph 6 - Iran. Hamas, Houthis, Hizbullah are arms of the terror monster. IRGC is the head.

My understanding is that about 80% of Iranian people in Iran are anti regime but heavily oppressed. And that the majority outside Iran are anti-regime, and escaped. The minority in Iran keeps power extremely brutally. I have seen on social media a lot of posts by Iranians in diaspora, showing support for Israel attacking the IRGC. And videos of people on balconies in Iran shouting death to Ayatollah and celebrating Israel's actions. I have never heard an Israeli say a bad word about the non-IRGC Iranian people, I believe there is a lot of mutual warmth there. Iranians outside Iran also come to support on many Jewish marches and protests.

The issue in my opinion is political Islam. Islam seeks to colonise and expand (hence there are very few non-Muslims left in the middle east). Once it has colonised a country it considers it an unendurable shame to give it up: the more I have studied, the more I have come to believe that is their main problem with Israel. Israel was colonised by Muslims in around 800CE and they cannot bear that it is in non-Muslim hands, especially by Jews who really, really upset Mohammed by declining his new religion and sticking with what they already had. Let's not also forget that some Arab countries were in close league with the Nazis.

Everything else - religious and cultural differences, land division, resources, even the painful history of the last 100 years, is secondary to that main issue. All other issues can be resolved but when a movement is unwilling to accept you exist and have a right to live, that is when there is no possibility of resolution.

I also genuinely do not believe Israel wants to occupy Gaza. It's too much hassle. Some ministers have made comments to that effect but it isn't a solution generally wanted. Egypt exported many of their Muslim Brotherhood trouble makers to Gaza, Egypt also did not want Gaza. Nobody wants that headache! Maybe a technocratic government would work but who would sit in such a government who is independent of the current clans and tribalism that exists within Gaza and who has no links to Hamas?

Are you saying that Hamas didn’t predict the reaction to the 7th of October? Of course they did. They did this to their own people, with respect they didn’t care, they are staying in Qatar - it’s of little consequence to them.
Why is there such a reluctance to acknowledge Hamas’ role in the dire situation and starvation? They engineered and activated the latest crisis.

I am not aware we have confirmed numbers of agreed fatalities. Where are you getting those statistics? Please can you link and reference your numbers from verified sources.

Why don’t we ask Hamas for a statement regarding the pain and suffering inflicted in Gaza? Given they created this latest crisis, where is the accountability from all sides?

Israel MUST not stop or prevent aid or medicine, it’s my understanding that the supplies are being stolen en masse by armed militias.

Gonna be honest. I don’t think Israel having nukes is a worry. Any Islamic state having nukes is more of a worry.
Nukes should be a deterrent not a threat

Are you saying Netenyahu’s regime is safer than the dozens and dozens of Islamic countries where people are living a peaceful life without the aggressions and genocide that his regime has committed? Is that what you are saying?

I believe that a cross party of representation should replace Hamas. It should represent all 2 million citizens and the religious leaders, interests and historical parties. The UN and other peace keepers should oversee a brand new pact whereby Gaza has exports, imports, access to some areas of the sea etc. All of that would be possible if anyone for a single minute thought it would be respected.

The issue here is that Iran and others do not want peace for anyone, they want every last Jew to be extinguished. That is their aim. So how can anyone broker a deal if any kind?
They simply do not want to share the land, peace or anything else. This aggressive, violent pro Hamas stance has been ignored for too long perhaps? What if it’s the case that the west have too relaxed, and not been firm enough from the beginning? It’s a different view point, but one worth asking.

Can you list peaceful democratic Islamic nations in the ME please? Not autocratic dictatorships but ones that offer democracy, human rights and tolerance?

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202402245769

I really don’t think the majority of Iranians are radical islamists.

But as we discussed earlier, some of Iran's rhetoric may be hateful, and they have proxies through Hamas and Hezbollah, but none of that equates to an actual plan to extinguish every last Jew. They've never directly stated such a thing either. Iran claims it distinguishes between Jews and Zionists, and it's the Zionist regime they want to see eliminated. That's their official position. The existence of a nuclear programme does not equate to wanting to nuke Israel. Obviously it's understandable that this would make Israel nervous - but Israel also has nuclear weapons, and that undoubtedly makes Iran nervous. Israel being enabled (by the USA/West) to be the most heavily armed country in that territory is going to make everyone else nervous, and create resentment against the West.

I'm not pro Israel or pro Iran btw (quite hard to find much to like in either regime at the moment tbh). I'm just trying to find some understanding of the situation, I'm not 'picking a side.' I don't think it's a black and white conflict by any stretch of the imagination and it just feels to me like the seething volcano that is the Middle East at the best of times has erupted, and now the rest of the world is going to be covered in lava.

I think that when faced with a regime who are on the brink of having nuclear weapons, Israel may well think that they've got nothing to lose with a change of leadership, particularly if they've destroyed the nuclear programme in the process.

I think this is the aim of US and G7 too

I have seen multiple times over the years threats to annihilate Israel.

https://edition.cnn.com/2014/11/10/world/meast/iran-annihilate-israel

There are so many examples over the years, so I don’t think this is overblown in this instance.

Nor is the fear of a nuclear attack from Iran mere hearsay and exaggerated. I very much understand why this is an enormous risk well beyond the region.

I certainly don’t know anyone in real life that picks a ‘side’ in this way, most would prefer to see a permanent solution.

If Iran are blocking a peace deal maybe that’s why they are being removed? The stakes are much too high now to sit idly by.