Watching Trump - Tariffs - your thoughts

[Livingbytheocean]

Did I actually hear him use the word rape in his presidential address?

I have been blindsided listening to the ‘content’ by the flippant use of that word.

I really object to mumsnetters banging on

I really object to posters generalising and berating all mumsnetters 🤷🏻

its quite obviously individual posters and not the entire forum…probably a bit too difficult to type ‘some posters’ rather than ‘mumsnetters’

I know!
An actual rapist, standing up and saying his country is being raped!
I really hope Stamer doesn't do the shit 'deal' sucking up to Trump and gets together with other nations (Canada, EU etc) to quickly for trade deals between each other, and stand together. Trump and his ilk hate nothing more than unions.

We're not blaming them for Trump being bananas but surely they are largely to blame for him getting in?

No. The Republicans who chose not to impeach him and then nominate and support him again and the voters who voted for him, will full and free access to the truth about him and his plans, are to blame.

I'm so bloody sick of the 'she was asking for it by wearing a short skirt' rationale on here. Do posters really not understand the harm of using the logic of abusers to explain this?

As so many people pointed out during the election, the choice was akin to being offered a plate of dog shit with ground glass or chicken on a long flight, and going, well, chicken's not my favourite, so I guess I'll take my chances with the dog shit.

It's obviously going really really well:

'Global financial markets have been plunged into turmoil as Donald Trump’s escalating trade war knocked trillions of dollars off the value of the world’s biggest companies and heightened fears of a US recession.'

Starmer has been a bitter disappointment but not because he hasn't given wealthy people tax cuts. However, I'd still choose him over the deluded orange adjudicated rapist who casually talks about the US being raped. It must be like being governed by a stupid fascist malevolent toddler.

Everything he does is about attention. He almost certainly has some sort of personality disorder, due mainly to his upbringing. If anyone is interested, his nieces book is worth a read
https://www.audible.co.uk/pd/1471199150?source_code=ASSORAP0511160006&share_location=pdp

Their tariff calculations had nothing to do with whether the countries in question had levied tariffs on the US.

Their calculation method was to take the trade deficit for the US in goods with a particular country, divide that by the total goods imports from that country and then divide that number by two.

They have hit really poor countries with the highest tariffs because they export a particular commodity e.g. clothes to the US but as the population is so poor, they don't buy any American goods. Lesotho, a desparately poor country, has been slapped with a 50% tariff, the highest of any country. They haven't levied any tariffs on American good, but their citizens just can't afford to buy them.

Making poor countries even poorer isn't a way to reduce migration, it's a way to increase it. As Sophie Ridge said on Sky, 'when people are desperate, they move'.

" Further if we are allowed free speech, like we used to have, we will even get a trade deal."

So we grovel to Trump and eyeliner guy to get a deal and then six months down the line he abandons it leaving us adrift? Last time he was in office he did a deal with Canada himself and now look where they are.

Would love to know what Americans are thinking right now. Trump slapped a 10% tariff on an island inhabited only by penguins 🐧🤣🤣

I'm guessing they don't know as it wasn't reported

It's a rather simplistic way of looking at the situation which I assume gets you to the conclusion you want.

However there are additional factors and it depends what you mean by "pays more".

Firstly, if you reshore manufacturing you are getting the economic activity associated with that manufacturing. That is much more than just the direct jobs. In order to have factories you need builders, cleaners, electricians, catering staff and a whole lot more. So there is a cascade of jobs available as a result.

Secondly you have to ask the question what happens to the money associated with the tariffs and how that is spent into the economy. Will it appear as tax cuts or as government spending in other areas, which in itself increases economic activity.

I think a better question would be is not whether the consumer "pays more" but whether the quality of life increases for the average American. In terms of product cost it can come down to which would you rather have more, a loaf of bread that costs 40p and no job, or a loaf of bread that costs 60p and a job ?

The situation is more complex than I have described above, although you might want to think about the following. Globalisation has basically benefited the rich (those plugged into the global system) at the benefit of the poor (those who aren't). The poor have lost their jobs and earning power as manufacturing jobs have been outsourced, and the rich have taken the profits from that.

One assumption to make might be that De-Globalisation as Trump is currently proposing will reverse that process. ie it will take money away from the relatively few rich, and make the life for the poor better as they will now have jobs even though their goods to purchase might be more expensive. Of course although people who want to/can work will be better off, people that can't will not see the benefit as their COL increases while they remain unable to access the increased economic activity.

There are a lot more issues associated with reshoring, such as whether the resources are available to take advantage, and if they are limited that could lead to significant inflation.

To me there is something of a paradox here, as the reshoring may actually lead to the mass of immigrants that have come into the US to get higher value employment and raise themselves off the streets, at the expense of say the Chinese labour force. Whether that is something Trump intends or not I don't know.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=lStWAhGfxn0&pp=ygUOdHJ1bXAgcGVuZ3VpbnM%3D

But ‘groceries’ guys, such a beautiful word ‘groceries’ - if you didn’t hear this yesterday from Trump - we spent yesterday evening totally taking the piss. The guy is off his chump - this is a guy who has never been involved in actual manufacturing , components or logistics is a very different thing - having a static business in golf courses or hotels or property etc is a very different thing. What he also hasn’t factored into the equation is that building factories, buying the land, , getting the planning through, getting everything ready takes a pretty long time. I’m not sure I as an investor / international business would be investing that amount of cash or energy if I thought the situation might change in less than 4 years - a new regime might instantly get rid of all these tariffs etc as part of ‘their’ strategy -

Well those of us who consume real news know. But then, those of us who consume real news are unsurprised by all of it - the corruption, the mendacity, the graft, the cruelty, the incompetence, the utter stupidity.

The 30% that consume only right wing media don't know and won't believe it no matter what.

I guess it's up to the remainder to change the equation, inasmuch as it's still changeable.

@GasPanic

In terms of product cost it can come down to which would you rather have more, a loaf of bread that costs 40p and no job, or a loaf of bread that costs 60p and a job ?

But how much damage can happen in the 20 years it's going to take to shore up to manufacture that loaf of bread? Surely a rational actor would spend time ensuring they could source the fertiliser, the wheat, the thresher and the oven before tossing out the old bread supplier? i.e. laying the groundwork for sufficiency.

I don't think western democracies do long term planning. Everything is planned on the electoral cycle, which leads to the so called crisis of democracy. In the US it is even more acute due to the 4 year term. The sort of planning you describe would mean nothing would ever get done, and when you apply it to long term projects like nuclear plants it hardly ever does. It's one of the reasons why NHS reform in the UK is not being done. No one wants to own that particular hot potato.

Another interesting point is that the US has been moving into protectionism for a long time. See the 2022 Biden Chips and Science Act (which I am almost 100% confident no one on here complained about). Trumps actions may be more of a step change and more dramatically presented than this, but the direction of the US towards protectionism from both parties is clear. I think it is unlikely a next term Democratic government would undo the direction, but will more likely carry on quietly with the same policies while issuing a few distraction headlines that the faithful will no doubt lap up.

Yes, Biden also had some protectionist instincts, and the CHIPS act was bipartisan and actually an example of how to move towards self-sufficiency in some important areas in a reasoned and competent manner. That's the point. You can make moves to put things in place without tanking the world's economy, your voters' pensions and portfolios and all your international alliances.

Trump's actions aren't a step change. They're an uncontrolled demolition, enacted without care or competence. They're not about the things real protectionism aimed at economic growth are about. This is nothing more than bigging up his credentials as an ace negotiator and arm-twisting big companies into lining his coffers with no fucks given about the harm he'll cause even if other countries do eventually cave to his ham-fisted tactics.

Look, I think we can all agree there seems to be a lot of seat of the pants stuff with these tariffs. And I understand concerns about things like the integration of auto manufacturing in North America. It's not a simple issue.

But can someone please explain to me how it is that people who are broadly on the political left, or even very much on the political left, who have been talking for years about the need for local jobs, restoring local manufacturing, and saying that we need to be willing to pay more for goods that are ethically produced by unionized workers, are now going on about how necessary it is to import masses of cheap goods from countries with poor worker and environmental protections?

Like - these were the most neoliberal attitudes to the economy for years. I had roommates going to mass protests of the WEF in Seattle years ago to protest this kind of thing. NAFTA was pushed by conservatives and opposed by the left, especially the far left. The leader of the Green Party of Canada for years warned about the problems with these kinds of international trade agreements and the powers they devolved to corporations able to use governments for regulations that affected their bottom line.

I sometimes feel like someone has played a really clever trick on the left, just totally annihilating everything they stood for and believed about workers and the economy. And the left has simply accepted it all as the new normal without blinking an eye.

Yes you won’t find posts on here applauding offshoring jobs due to cheap labour or high consumption of cheaper Chinese goods. There’s a disconnect for some reason.

I'm broadly on the left, and that's never been my position.

I think, though, that the problem is unfettered capitalism that puts shareholders' interests above all else. Corporate law is entirely structured so the fiduciary duty of companies is all slanted to maximising profit, which really gathered steam under Reagan and has continued. I don't think offshoring manufacturing and customer service wholesale, particularly to countries with horrendous working conditions and labour practices, is in the interests of anyone other than shareholders. But the right successfully de-fanged labour unions and, in the name of trickle down, successive governments, including Democratic administrations allowed it to happen. I also think cheap goods are contributing to decimating the planet.

I'm certainly not opposed to good trade agreements and I do believe in international trade, but I don't believe it doesn't all need a rethink. This, however, isn't it.

One simple question to ask about Trumps tariff policies is, if they were viewed in isolation from who proposed them, would they be viewed as left wing or right wing ?

Globalism is to a degree selling the classic labour force a pup, convincing them that things are going to be better for them and that they are going to upskill while an elite make out like bandits as the classic labour force lose their jobs so they can buy cheap washing up bowls. Unfortunately for the globalists, they may have managed to take the jobs away but the one thing they didn't take away was the vote, and situations like Brexit and Trump are the result. The relative position between the few rich elite and the large numbers of poor but democratically enabled people has always swung backwards and forwards through history.

In some ways tariffs can be seat of the pants. Because they are easily reversible and can be modified dynamically as situations develop, unlike something like Brexit for example.

There is no paradox.

The assumption is the average American will be able to afford the new higher prices imported goods will now cost... and not factored in is the loss of US exports that will now occur ie US goods in China and the EU will now be priced out of the reach of most people.

US companies wont be able to sell to their own domestic market, as thats going to be hit with high inflation....and soon higher unemployment.

Then there is the simple fact that the US has relatively low unemployment, low skills and an aging economy... so who exactly is going to do these additional jobs?

Globalisation? sure, the wealthy, instead of paying their workers well in the industries we have, decided to keep the profits themselves, driving inequality and leading to the loss of jobs to overseas, de globalisation doesn't lead to higher wages, unionisation does that, look at the Victorian era? no off-shoring, piss poor working conditions, what changed that? Unions... people like Trump and others on the right helped collapse them.

A country with 13% of global trade, has now forced the other 87% not to trade with them.... unbelievable..... a former press secretary said Trump is insane, looks like he was right, though why the republican party are backing him 100% is far more of a mystery.

To me gloablisation is a product of both positive action by the right, and refusal by the left to take rectifying action when they had the opportunity.

Loss of the unions, yes caused by the right, but again lack of balancing by the left that you would expect caused the problem to become even worse. I see this as a fault of both sides and it is a common theme in politics of the 2000s, a general shift to the right.

Lamenting the loss of the unions is all well and good. Not sure though that it has much relevance to the modern position. If union powers were restored then to me it would just push up the cost of labour even more in the West and lead to even less employment/benefits for workers in the West as more and more jobs were outsourced due to cost. if you want to reshore jobs then you have to offer the reshoring some benefit to doing so. Tariffs offers them lower costs. Unions offer them higher ones.

One assumption to make might be that De-Globalisation as Trump is currently proposing will reverse that process. ie it will take money away from the relatively few rich, and make the life for the poor better as they will now have jobs even though their goods to purchase might be more expensive.

If any assumption relies on believing that Trump will do anything to "take money away from the relatively few rich" then it's a premise so absurd it's laughable. There has been nothing, NOTHING in Trump's history, enacted policies and/or the people he surrounds himself with that indicates he's got any such ambition.

You ve missed my point...

We've offshored eg shipbuilding, put houses around the docks where they were once built, ship building isn't coming back... same with most industries and AI and automation will mean these industries no longer employ large numbers.

So we have eg logistics warehouses & supermarkets instead, 10s of 1000s employed, huge profits, off shored, billionaires made space programs and Titanic sub adventures..

Meanwhile the workers in these places earn a pittance, claim UC, work long hours, they could be paid more? but as they have no unions or any other bargaining rights, they don't.

De-globalisation in its self, changes nothing for a worker employed in a on shored industry, the employer will seek to maximise profits and one way to do that is pay a pittance... look at Tesco et al, they have stated they will pass on NI increases to consumers because they need to keep profits higher....