Watching Trump - Tariffs - your thoughts

[Livingbytheocean]

Did I actually hear him use the word rape in his presidential address?

I have been blindsided listening to the ‘content’ by the flippant use of that word.

Not sure about that

Not really, it just makes him look more of a dick. Starmer could remove VAT and the tariffs would go, making us all better off. Further if we are allowed free speech, like we used to have, we will even get a trade deal.

Trump has been quite open about this but the UK media have decided to spin it as impossible to bow to his demands, even though it would be in the public's interest to do so.

He gets to blame everything that goes wrong economically on the US, and reverse on the manifesto pledges that have hamstrung him because the economic environment has changed.

Given the fact Labour have been screwed economically because they have absolutely no wriggle room I'd count this situation as a win. And a significant fraction of the public will be happy to swallow the narrative because Trump is not very popular in the UK.

He’ll try but I not sure it’ll help his ratings which are on the floor.

He’s already done the doom and gloom early on and it’s a bit cried wolf.

We’ll see but they lost more support after the Spring statement and more cuts or taxes will be a lead balloon. It’s more spin.

I don't think people will buy that. People know Labour are well into the process of messing up the economy as they usually do.

Just imagine if we didn't have the consumption tax that is VAT. Everything would be substantially cheaper as there is VAT on energy. Then imagine living in a country where we are not arresting people for posting pictures on facebook or praying silently in their heads. When people could speak their minds freely.

I think it will work. People don't like Trump and will swallow it.

You can see he is already laying the groundwork in his speeches. The world is changing. The next line will be "our policies have to change with it".

It's a massive get out of jail free card.

It does however require the balancing act of blaming Trump while not pissing him off to much. But my guess is he doesn't pay too much attention to what is going on in the UK.

No one is saying the US is the only country to impose tariffs. And they already do, by the way. Almost all countries do, to a greater or lesser extent. This is completely within the rules of the WTO, as long as they’re not discriminatory.

However there’s also sound economic evidence to argue that such tariffs will actually do more harm to consumers in the country imposing the tariffs, rather than the country importing the goods itself. This kind of tit for tat tariff war is ridiculous and has been shown as such before in history.

Idk I get what you’re saying, he and Reeves will
certainly try.

I was listening the other day to focus group feedback on the radio and alongside very low approval they said feedback was mostly are my bins picked up, is school ok, are bills high, just every day stuff.

I can see people getting even more pissed off.

People are not being arrested for praying silently inside their heads. People are being arrested for breaching legal buffer zones outside abortion clinics to protect vulnerable women. Where do you get your news from? GB News?

Honestly, I don't know what will happen with prices.

If the changes they seem to be trying to make were to really work, and I think the whole thing is a risky endeavour, it will be a major reset and I don't know that current price expectations will really be relevant any more.

Totally separately, I've long thought a sustainable economy is probably going to require higher food prices and other changes in the agricultural sector around sustainability, and fewer other consumer goods. Since 1080 there has been a massive increase in the number of goods we have, most of them cheaply made and unnecessary, not to mention and environmental disaster.

So I am not especially committed to maintaining the kind of cheap mass consumption political progressives now seem so attached to.

But with regard to Chinese goods - I do think there is a larger issue not just of a desire for an economic reset that is less dependent on China. I think that there is a view, and IMO a correct one, that sees China as a real existential threat, politically and militarily. And being economically dependent on a nation you may go to war with is really, really stupid. No matter how much it hurts in the short term to turn away from that.

Oh, my post above should say 1980, not 1080!

Do you know VAT is 17% of the total tax take in the U.K.

If it was scrapped to appease Trump how would you make up the £170 billion shortfall?

Good god almighty you have no idea what you are on about are you? Yes some imports face duty, not specific to the USA and that is fairly normal as if they were produced here there would be VAT. (Which is similar if importing in the USA).

And no it’s not “rough and ready” to use deficits to calculate tariffs. It’s just wrong. They mean two completely different things.

I think your love for Trump is leading you to swim out of your depth.

FWIW, I don't really think the tariffs are about reenue, and are only partly about encouraging domestic manufacturing. I suspect a big issue is that they are meant to destabilize and throw a sort of wrench in the works.

By watching the video of the actual arrest. I can tell you get your news from the state propaganda service.

Yes interesting. I often see posts on here on any emissions threads where posters talk about the west outsourcing those, and generally people will post ‘we buy too much tat from China’.

But the hard reality is it’s incredibly difficult to lower that consumption and the main way to do it is prices. So do people want long term reliance on China or not?

Idk what their intentions are but I did not how few are developing serious weaponry wrt 5th and 6th generation jets and massive off boarding vessels. I’m not saying I know what they’ll do but you’re right - it’s absolutely possible we could be asking why did we rely on them this much anyway.

Last year Russia exported 3 billion worth of goods to the US according to the New York Times. Ok that’s not huge, but I’d say they are getting preferential treatment over so called Allies..

There are many outcomes that are incorrectly predicted but are more nuanced than "the opposite"

If people are breaking the law by not observing the buffer zone around abortion clinics then they deserve to be arrested

But how will Trump deliberately destabilising the US' "allies", harming the world economy and making the US seem like a country that cannot be trusted lead to a reduction in the power of China? It seems to me that it will have the opposite effect? My impression is that the US is looking increasingly weak.

I'm no economist though....

The economic goal as far as I understand it is to reduce the value of the American dollar, and become much less reliant on Chinese goods, and a more self-sufficient economy, and in fact a changed global economy.

From a military/power POV I think the idea is to form a coalition with Russia against China. Which will include India, and realistically Europe, Canada, and the rest will fall in with them rather than China, because what other choice will there be? The threat of Chinese military and economic dominance has been warned about for decades, and right now I think it's pretty unclear that the west is in a real position o do anything about them. I think it's hard to argue that the post WWII power model isn't up to the challenge any more.

I mentioned up thread that Yanis Varoufakis has written some really good articles on this, which are much more clear than I am, I'll link to the most recent - he has a few others as well that are all worth reading. You have to register I think but then you get several free articles per month.

Article

I continually find it weird that people who say consumerism and emissions are a problem, and global capitalism is evil, are freaking out about policies on the grounds that they are a threat to global capitalism and the consumption associated with it.

Whilst there may be some truth in the issue re trans rights re the loss of the election and posibly a sense of arrogance in the Democratic party, I really object to mumsnetters banging on about cackling Kamala and GrandPa Joe.Some of you seem to parrot the rightwing press alarmingly.Calling Harris that is quite misogynistic and calling Biden Grandpa Joe is unpleasantly ageist in implication.People seem to have forgotten that he led the US out of covid and actually improved infrastructure and this is all ignored by everyone because he did show some kind of cognitive issues which may or may not have had anything to do with Alzheimers or other illnesses.He had some brain injuries when young and also a hell of a lot of personal losses.He also spoke in a slow way but as soon as one is past a certain age, age is blamed for all.Anything he did is being lost in a sea of Trump madness.Mumsnetters for gods sake educate yourselves

Looks like the tariffs have been poorly worked out

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/04/revealed-how-trump-tariffs-slugged-norfolk-island-and-uninhabited-heard-and-mcdonald-islands

Mislabelled products cause small islands to have a trade deficit.

So if you sell more to the US than you buy from the US, you have a trade deficit. Clearly there are some countries that have products the US wants but people in those countries don't necessarily want / afford to buy as they either don't need them or can't afford those products.

For the US consumer - 2 things are going to happen

Either cheap goods they buy from abroad are going to get more expensive because of these tariffs.

Or

Manufacturing of these goods moves to the US - but it will potentially cost more to produce them in the US than in the original country so yes, the goods won't have any tariffs, it will be produced in the USA but it will cost US consumers more.

Either way, the US consumer pays more for those goods.