Watching Trump - Tariffs - your thoughts

[Livingbytheocean]

Did I actually hear him use the word rape in his presidential address?

I have been blindsided listening to the ‘content’ by the flippant use of that word.

It's stupid ideology. I thought deep down Agent Orange wasn't an ideologue. I thought initially (back in 2017-18) that he was driven by greed, clumsy but ultimately relatively pragmatic. I was wrong and Jan 6th was a glaring sign. He is an ideologue. I can't see any winners here. I think he's hooked on power now even more than money and that's bad news.
Because he's vindictive, I think this is purely an abusive move hurting both the US and the rest of the world to show he can impose his will.

Promising to build in the us vs actually doing so are two different things.
I suspect lots of diplomatic calls and gift offers. I gather Thailand offered to allow a casino in exchange for tarrif leniency.
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Difficult to predict what will happen for sure but the past shows us that a tariff war has been bad for the economy. My view is that Trump comes across as a bully in both his actions, communication and style. The past shows us that you if you appease a bully they just take more and bully more. I would like the rest of the world to do their busy and ignore Trump and carry on as if the USA were irrelevant- perhaps Make America Irrelevant should be the slogan

Then if they are always wrong, get them to make predictions and assume the opposite. So they are some use.

They will, probably no one on this thread though. Dropshipping can be set up or torn down in days, very little risk involved. Whenever there is change enterprising people make money

“Racing ahead,” yet still a snivelling victim of the rest of the world - even developing counties like Lesotho.

Long term vision stuff is all very well (I'm not convinced that's what it is, but just going with it for now) but what's going to really hurt in the meantime is immediately living costs: the price of eggs and the price of fuel- as in gas for Americans. Don't see what Trump is doing that'll fix that. And it's what affects your support most directly.

sadly it is Trump’s right to use tariffs as he was democratically elected but it is the rest of worlds right to act in their own or global interests. I don’t think Trump can be reasoned with so we have to treat him as we would an irritating “friend “ to hold at arms length. We need to carry on ignore him.

Costs to us will go up now, but we knew that. Costs are rocketing anyway, and no government seems to have a clue how to fix it. 🤷‍♀️

My son lives in the US and they expecting their costs to continue to rise as well - trade wars rarely work for anyone. 🙄

They initially flew up globally after the pandemic due to the lag in global shipping, which has been slowly coming back to normal. Here in the U.K., we’ve also had a Brexit-related rise in costs due to hampered import/export chains and the increased red tape.

All of that was starting to stabilise. We’ve since had our own domestic increase on water (thanks to our water companies letting infrastructure crumble to dangerous levels!), but prices had been just starting to come down. The US Trade War will turn everything on its head again. I think a lot of people are going to suffer.

We have our own issues in Wales with council taxes going up 10% again. Water rates too. Train and bus services cut to the bone. Jobs cut, businesses closing.

We're getting to the stage where there's just no money to spare for so many.

Trump derangement syndrome from people that cannot deal with facts does not negate the fact that US is a quarter of the global economy. You can be triggered by Trump all you like but ultimately he holds the power because he is in charge of the country the whole global ecosystem is dependent on.

Yes, I am sure we are all aware of that.

But what I find really interesting is that up until about 5 minutes ago, the political left thought this was very dangerous, and that globalization has been terrible for working people, and needed to somehow be mitigated.

It almost feels like the left has now been tricked into rejecting all the ideas it used to fight for, like looking out for workers, controlling movement of labour, financialization, globalization and trade regs that are for the benefit of huge multinationals, etc.

All that notwithstanding - the concerns around the loss of manufacturing to places like China are that, A) although it gives cheap goods, it will, long term, cause the American economy to fizzle out, b) it empowers China, not only economically but in terms of global political power, and c) in the instance that relations deteriorate or something else interferes, it screws Americans who won't be able to ramp up their own manufacturing when things have gone south.

And whether what the Trump administration will work or not, all of those concerns are very real and very serious. So it's reasonable to ask, what's the better plan the other guys have? Other than ignoring it?

There's no denying he has power that he's free to use as stupidly and carelessly as he likes.

But is it just slightly possible you're the one triggered by backing someone who's unsurprisingly turned out to be a narcissistic, moronic imbecile? Or can you explain what he's doing, his economic philosophy, in a way that makes sense? Because he certainly can't.

If you remember, the availability of chips from Taiwan became an issue during the pandemic.

It's very interesting that when we were in the midst of COVID, so many people were talking about the need to move important industries in-country, but this seems now to have been chucked to the wayside.

China is an interesting issue, I have seen the idea emerge that we are too dependent on cheap Chinese goods, on here included.

Does that view still hold?

The best way to do it would be to create a corporate legal structure that gives employment rights and practices precedence over shareholder profits. A lot of the workers contributed to this downward spiral themselves when they, at the behest of right wing talk radio in the 80s, rejected unions. Reagan was extremely damaging in this regard.

There's no denying that there's an argument for having a manufacturing base in your own country, but you get there by a slow and reasoned process, gearing up the industries and products that support manufacturing. You don't wreck what exists to be replaced by something that doesn't. The US is a long way away from self-sufficiency in the manufacturing arena.

People can go without consumer goods for a while. though I don't imagine they will like it. They could increase their domestic production.

I think the volatility though is a real issue, and could potentially undermine a lot of what they are trying to do. If you want to attempt something like this I think you need to seem rock-steady.

And then, of course, there's this particularly intelligent wrecking ball. It seems to have slipped people's minds that under Biden there was a bipartisan move on chips...

https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/chips-act-already-puts-america-first-scrapping-it-would-poison-well

Look I am pro-union overall, and certainly in principle, but globalization works directly against everything unions have tried to do. They are directly in conflict.

It's really interesting to look at the fortunes on the Mondragon company over the years, a true employee managed cooperative that was wildly successful - right up until globalization. It still exists, but only because they diluted their model significantly, because they couldn't compete in a globalized market otherwise. It's a very instructive story, in terms of why unionization won't work to mitigate globalization.

Increasing domestic production can happen, but what are your thoughts on prices? Just the labour issue, and how much that is in US v cheaper places.

Although automation could help.

Yes the whole point of this is to increase domestic production. And that could happen. But not overnight. It takes years to open a new car plant - probably longer than Trump's term.

That’s not the point though, is it? When you are an economically powerful country, you can do anything. When you are a pathetic backwater with delusions of grandeur, like many European nations now are, including the UK, you just watch and complain.

Europe should have thought about before decimating home grown energy sector and going headfirst into the net 0 scam. Europe should have thought about that before prioritising crazy public spending ahead of efficiency and growth. Should have thought about that before letting US runaway with growth through backing business rather than backing red tape.

You are triggered by Trump and unable to accept that if you are not economically powerful, you just stand on the sidelines and froth at the mouth. While those that prioritised economic prosperity can do what they want.

I imagine it will encourage the factories to relocate to America. The US like Britain did have a huge manufacturing sector at one point so maybe it will revitalise the rust belt

But he isn’t doing it to keep money in the peoples pockets. It will take years to transfer factories over to the US if it ever happens. Grocery prices are going up and so did prescription prices at the start of his term. He needs the tariffs to fund the tax cuts to the corporations and to the rich 1 percent. Trump is running the US like an Oligarchy. The only reason Musk was involved was to ensure there was less or no government regulation for his companies.

I prefer Starmer especially if he keeps the NHS ours. Reform will sell it to the US and who has £3000-5000 to pay for an ambulance or £750 a month to pay for insulin in this country. (that is what they are paying there even with health insurance). They will also do the same exact tax cuts for the rich that Liz Truss did. Trickle down economics doesn’t work.